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Despite being one of its most visible operations, the supercharger network is an utterly minuscule part of Tesla's overall business. It's unlikely to ever repre

Despite being one of its most visible operations, the supercharger network is an utterly minuscule part of Tesla's overall business. It's unlikely to ever represent much more than 1% of Tesla's profit. There's never going to be big money in vehicle charging because the vast majority of charging occurs at the owner's premises, and there's no technical impediment stopping the remainder from being a highly competitive industry.

panick21_ 3y ago
The impediment is that it takes a huge amount of technical knowledge and execution, plus a huge amount of capital, plus the ability to operate a huge service and maintenance team. If there is already a very large first rate infrastructure, then replicating that is very difficult. Your statement sounds to me like 'trains are technically easy' there is not reason we can't have highly competitive industry in cargo transport from Chicago to New York. But yet there is only one company really operating that infrastructure. Charging is not as extreme of a case as trains, but putting in huge capital investment for minimal profit just doesn't make a lot of sense. We can see this today, EA is losing money. Non Tesla charge companies all lose money.
- toast0 3y ago
  If charging is all pay per use and not a subscription (especially not a subscription you get included with a vehicle), there's no need to operate on a large scale; it's like gas stations: most are franchised chain stations, but there's tons of independents. Electrify America is the product of a court settlement; it doesn't really need to earn money, it just needs to keep VW out of court.
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    Electrify America has already spent the money from the court settlement, they need raise money like any other company and make a profit. > If charging is all pay per use and not a subscription (especially not a subscription you get included with a vehicle) Those things are already happening on large scale. The logic you suggest is only true if an independent can easily make a competitive station. The problem is Tesla is mass producing super charges at prices that simply can't be matched by other producers. There are also economics of scale in terms of routing cars and achieving higher utilization. Private franchises need to actually make a good profit to be worth setting up. In EV charging the money goes to the equipment provider or the electricity producer. You might make some money with additional services like a shop or a cafe. But in that case you might as well make a deal with a large player like Tesla to put up a station. Also if your station breaks, you need an repair person to show up quickly. And company that sell charging equipment they mass produced are usually not good at providing those services. You will also have the disadvantage that the biggest fleet will simply route people to their own stations. Driving down your utilization. I think most charging networks will be large not individual. We see very few individual DC fast chargers.

panick21_ 3y ago

The impediment is that it takes a huge amount of technical knowledge and execution, plus a huge amount of capital, plus the ability to operate a huge service and maintenance team. If there is already a very large first rate infrastructure, then replicating that is very difficult. Your statement sounds to me like 'trains are technically easy' there is not reason we can't have highly competitive industry in cargo transport from Chicago to New York. But yet there is only one company really operating that infrastructure. Charging is not as extreme of a case as trains, but putting in huge capital investment for minimal profit just doesn't make a lot of sense. We can see this today, EA is losing money. Non Tesla charge companies all lose money.

toast0 3y ago
If charging is all pay per use and not a subscription (especially not a subscription you get included with a vehicle), there's no need to operate on a large scale; it's like gas stations: most are franchised chain stations, but there's tons of independents. Electrify America is the product of a court settlement; it doesn't really need to earn money, it just needs to keep VW out of court.
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Electrify America has already spent the money from the court settlement, they need raise money like any other company and make a profit. > If charging is all pay per use and not a subscription (especially not a subscription you get included with a vehicle) Those things are already happening on large scale. The logic you suggest is only true if an independent can easily make a competitive station. The problem is Tesla is mass producing super charges at prices that simply can't be matched by other producers. There are also economics of scale in terms of routing cars and achieving higher utilization. Private franchises need to actually make a good profit to be worth setting up. In EV charging the money goes to the equipment provider or the electricity producer. You might make some money with additional services like a shop or a cafe. But in that case you might as well make a deal with a large player like Tesla to put up a station. Also if your station breaks, you need an repair person to show up quickly. And company that sell charging equipment they mass produced are usually not good at providing those services. You will also have the disadvantage that the biggest fleet will simply route people to their own stations. Driving down your utilization. I think most charging networks will be large not individual. We see very few individual DC fast chargers.