4 ms·

You know the situation in Central Europe from direct experience, for me it's more abstract. I do not rule out that I am wrong and that a tolerable agreement wi

You know the situation in Central Europe from direct experience, for me it's more abstract. I do not rule out that I am wrong and that a tolerable agreement with Russia is not possible. But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains. The few pacifist-minded people like me are not relevant anyway. But it is relevant that the West ultimately does not want nuclear war, and also avoids sending troops. The support is enough for a long bloody war, the outcome is uncertain, I am pessimistic. I agree: this is not planned betrayal (though there is some cynicism) but may end catastrophically anyway.

deleted 3y ago
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_kbh_ 3y ago
> But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains. Why is this any different to the many times in the past a nuclear armed state has lost a war?.
- hackandthink 3y ago
  Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis...
  - _kbh_ 3y ago
    > Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. His Mearsheimer:Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win >https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis... When Russia saw an existential threat when Wagner was marching towards Moscow nothing happened. Russia doesn’t understand appeasement they only understand force. It’s kinda sad how badly the realists like Mearsheimer have utterly failed to model Russian behaviour. Giving Russia appeasements in Ukraine would just embolden them to try again. They must lose decisively. Any threat of nuclear war from Russia pales in comparison to the threat of future wars when nuclear proliferation goes through the roof, because you can invade whoever you feel and always win with nukes.
  - lisasays 3y ago
    Mearsheimer is not liked For his penchant for pushing half-truths, and intellectually distorted reasoning in other forms. He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO”; The root cause of what happened to the so-called victim was their going out dressed like that last night. Also, if anything that summit was known for conspicuously "kicking the can down the road": It was more notable for declining to accept their applications of that time, precisely because of Russia's objections -- instead downgrading them to "aspirant" status. There is no evidence in what Putin has said that he wants to make Ukraine part of Russia,” Mearsheimer adds. Well, not all of it. He just wanted to annex parts of it. Leaving behind a rump state permanently pliable to Moscow's interests.
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      > He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO” Its important to note, that this statement (and, particularly, the accompanyiny decision not to offer Membership Action Plans to Georgia and Ukraine at the time) was reporting a positive response to Russia’s urgent demands to delay Georgia and Ukraine admission to promote regional peace and stability. Also worth noting that, yes, Russia immediately invaded Georgia after it, so there is a pretty good argument that this acquiescence is a key turning point in Russian aggression, but this undermines rather than supports that the problem was NATO expansion—the problem was NATO weakness.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

_kbh_ 3y ago

> But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains. Why is this any different to the many times in the past a nuclear armed state has lost a war?.

hackandthink 3y ago
Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis...
- _kbh_ 3y ago
  > Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. His Mearsheimer:Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win >https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis... When Russia saw an existential threat when Wagner was marching towards Moscow nothing happened. Russia doesn’t understand appeasement they only understand force. It’s kinda sad how badly the realists like Mearsheimer have utterly failed to model Russian behaviour. Giving Russia appeasements in Ukraine would just embolden them to try again. They must lose decisively. Any threat of nuclear war from Russia pales in comparison to the threat of future wars when nuclear proliferation goes through the roof, because you can invade whoever you feel and always win with nukes.
- lisasays 3y ago
  Mearsheimer is not liked For his penchant for pushing half-truths, and intellectually distorted reasoning in other forms. He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO”; The root cause of what happened to the so-called victim was their going out dressed like that last night. Also, if anything that summit was known for conspicuously "kicking the can down the road": It was more notable for declining to accept their applications of that time, precisely because of Russia's objections -- instead downgrading them to "aspirant" status. There is no evidence in what Putin has said that he wants to make Ukraine part of Russia,” Mearsheimer adds. Well, not all of it. He just wanted to annex parts of it. Leaving behind a rump state permanently pliable to Moscow's interests.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO” Its important to note, that this statement (and, particularly, the accompanyiny decision not to offer Membership Action Plans to Georgia and Ukraine at the time) was reporting a positive response to Russia’s urgent demands to delay Georgia and Ukraine admission to promote regional peace and stability. Also worth noting that, yes, Russia immediately invaded Georgia after it, so there is a pretty good argument that this acquiescence is a key turning point in Russian aggression, but this undermines rather than supports that the problem was NATO expansion—the problem was NATO weakness.