4 ms·

So if chip-making could be maintained we'd be okay with China taking over Taiwan? Because the sanctions part makes it seem like "it'll be a problem because we'

So if chip-making could be maintained we'd be okay with China taking over Taiwan? Because the sanctions part makes it seem like "it'll be a problem because we'd make it so".

gjsman-1000 3y ago
> Because the sanctions part makes it seem like "it'll be a problem because we'd make it so". If we do anything for helping Taiwan, China will probably sanction us, before the US sanctions them. Imagine if stores like Walmart can't have a single thing that says "Made in China," or contains any component made in China, or "Made in Taiwan," or components from Taiwan. A war of just 1 year in length would have an estimated economic impact of up to 10% of US GDP. That's a recession times five. And that's assuming everything recovers that quickly. We could very easily enter depression. Especially tech like on Hacker News, because every time somebody damages their iPhone or just wears out a battery, there's not a new one available, and there's not even parts for a fix. Or a business computer. Or a business fleet of computers. The optimistic side would say, "well, more domestic manufacturing," but with how entrenched China is, I don't even know if you could get the tools built to even start manufacturing.
- psychphysic 3y ago
  Fair enough not really the kind of stuff I care about if I'm honest then. We could just not sanction them, while we're at it unsanction Russia for all I care. I'd happily buy their oil if it meant fewer winter deaths.
  - gjsman-1000 3y ago
    I don't necessarily disagree. And I'm not saying the US should or should not help Taiwan. However, if Taiwan is invaded, it will be worse than the pandemic for availability of everything from cars to computers to shipping. The damage would also spread like wildfire if it is prolonged. Imagine if you are UPS and can't get new package scanners. Imagine if you are VISA, a part of your mainframe fails, and there's no parts to replace it, so transactions are delayed or have higher fees to go through. Imagine if you are Lockheed Martin building airplanes with 60,000 engineers. If 10% of your computers fail within 3 years, 6,000 engineers need computers you can't get except for subpar stuff, second hand stuff, often from scalpers, at ludicrous prices. And so forth. It's just all-around terrible economically and it would be felt globally. Global economic depression is quite possible.

So if chip-making could be maintained we'd be okay with China taking over Taiwan? Because the sanctions part makes it seem like "it'll be a problem because we'd make it so".

gjsman-1000 3y ago

> Because the sanctions part makes it seem like "it'll be a problem because we'd make it so". If we do anything for helping Taiwan, China will probably sanction us, before the US sanctions them. Imagine if stores like Walmart can't have a single thing that says "Made in China," or contains any component made in China, or "Made in Taiwan," or components from Taiwan. A war of just 1 year in length would have an estimated economic impact of up to 10% of US GDP. That's a recession times five. And that's assuming everything recovers that quickly. We could very easily enter depression. Especially tech like on Hacker News, because every time somebody damages their iPhone or just wears out a battery, there's not a new one available, and there's not even parts for a fix. Or a business computer. Or a business fleet of computers. The optimistic side would say, "well, more domestic manufacturing," but with how entrenched China is, I don't even know if you could get the tools built to even start manufacturing.

psychphysic 3y ago
Fair enough not really the kind of stuff I care about if I'm honest then. We could just not sanction them, while we're at it unsanction Russia for all I care. I'd happily buy their oil if it meant fewer winter deaths.
- gjsman-1000 3y ago
  I don't necessarily disagree. And I'm not saying the US should or should not help Taiwan. However, if Taiwan is invaded, it will be worse than the pandemic for availability of everything from cars to computers to shipping. The damage would also spread like wildfire if it is prolonged. Imagine if you are UPS and can't get new package scanners. Imagine if you are VISA, a part of your mainframe fails, and there's no parts to replace it, so transactions are delayed or have higher fees to go through. Imagine if you are Lockheed Martin building airplanes with 60,000 engineers. If 10% of your computers fail within 3 years, 6,000 engineers need computers you can't get except for subpar stuff, second hand stuff, often from scalpers, at ludicrous prices. And so forth. It's just all-around terrible economically and it would be felt globally. Global economic depression is quite possible.