data simply doesn't support this. US economy, including manufacturing has already rebounded. unemployment is already below NAIRU (or close to it, labor market s

data simply doesn't support this. US economy, including manufacturing has already rebounded. unemployment is already below NAIRU (or close to it, labor market slack is small, the productivity slack is considerable, but that's because structural inefficiencies) contrast this with the current drop in Chinese economic output due to sanctions https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS