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I am Polish. Western betrayal is a popular view here, but not universal (my own opinion is that it was bad luck - the combination of underestimating new militar

by ajuc 3y ago

I am Polish. Western betrayal is a popular view here, but not universal (my own opinion is that it was bad luck - the combination of underestimating new military doctrine of blitzkrieg and the rise of USSR, nobody was planning on betrayal). The plans before WW2 were for Poland to defend for several months before the help arrives. WW1 made it look realistic. Blitzkrieg made it impossible, but it's anachronistic to view it as a betrayal. They simply didn't knew. Anyway, no matter how you look at it - Poles still fought for returning to the "western Europe" after that "betrayal". Because west might "betray" you, but Russia will genocide, censor, torture and exploit you till barely anything remains. These are the choices people in Eastern Europe have to make. If West didn't joined WW2 - Holocaust would finish succesfully. Then the plan was to starve most of Slavs, keep the rest as slaves and settle German colonizers in Ukraine to feed the 3rd Reich. By now we would have Nazis control half of Europe and have nukes. Much better? Or maybe the "warmongers" had a point? Ukrainians tried to find peace with Russia since 1991. There's just no way to do it. Russia wants to annex the whole Ukraine. They openly say this on their TV. And russian occupation isn't "safe". If you participated in any patriotic organisation, if you have Ukrainian tattoo, if you were important cultural or political figure - you are on russian list and they will kill you after they occupy Ukraine. This already happens on occupied territories. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russia-creating-lists-of-ukrainians-to-be-killed-or-sent-to-camps-report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russ... Ukrainians don't have a choice. And people like you make their situation worse.

hackandthink 3y ago
You know the situation in Central Europe from direct experience, for me it's more abstract. I do not rule out that I am wrong and that a tolerable agreement with Russia is not possible. But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains. The few pacifist-minded people like me are not relevant anyway. But it is relevant that the West ultimately does not want nuclear war, and also avoids sending troops. The support is enough for a long bloody war, the outcome is uncertain, I am pessimistic. I agree: this is not planned betrayal (though there is some cynicism) but may end catastrophically anyway.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- _kbh_ 3y ago
  > But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains. Why is this any different to the many times in the past a nuclear armed state has lost a war?.
  - hackandthink 3y ago
    Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis...
    - _kbh_ 3y ago
      > Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. His Mearsheimer:Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win >https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis... When Russia saw an existential threat when Wagner was marching towards Moscow nothing happened. Russia doesn’t understand appeasement they only understand force. It’s kinda sad how badly the realists like Mearsheimer have utterly failed to model Russian behaviour. Giving Russia appeasements in Ukraine would just embolden them to try again. They must lose decisively. Any threat of nuclear war from Russia pales in comparison to the threat of future wars when nuclear proliferation goes through the roof, because you can invade whoever you feel and always win with nukes.
    - lisasays 3y ago
      Mearsheimer is not liked For his penchant for pushing half-truths, and intellectually distorted reasoning in other forms. He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO”; The root cause of what happened to the so-called victim was their going out dressed like that last night. Also, if anything that summit was known for conspicuously "kicking the can down the road": It was more notable for declining to accept their applications of that time, precisely because of Russia's objections -- instead downgrading them to "aspirant" status. There is no evidence in what Putin has said that he wants to make Ukraine part of Russia,” Mearsheimer adds. Well, not all of it. He just wanted to annex parts of it. Leaving behind a rump state permanently pliable to Moscow's interests.

by ajuc 3y ago

hackandthink 3y ago

You know the situation in Central Europe from direct experience, for me it's more abstract. I do not rule out that I am wrong and that a tolerable agreement with Russia is not possible. But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains. The few pacifist-minded people like me are not relevant anyway. But it is relevant that the West ultimately does not want nuclear war, and also avoids sending troops. The support is enough for a long bloody war, the outcome is uncertain, I am pessimistic. I agree: this is not planned betrayal (though there is some cynicism) but may end catastrophically anyway.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
_kbh_ 3y ago
> But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains. Why is this any different to the many times in the past a nuclear armed state has lost a war?.
- hackandthink 3y ago
  Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis...
  - _kbh_ 3y ago
    > Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. His Mearsheimer:Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win >https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/ https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis... When Russia saw an existential threat when Wagner was marching towards Moscow nothing happened. Russia doesn’t understand appeasement they only understand force. It’s kinda sad how badly the realists like Mearsheimer have utterly failed to model Russian behaviour. Giving Russia appeasements in Ukraine would just embolden them to try again. They must lose decisively. Any threat of nuclear war from Russia pales in comparison to the threat of future wars when nuclear proliferation goes through the roof, because you can invade whoever you feel and always win with nukes.
  - lisasays 3y ago
    Mearsheimer is not liked For his penchant for pushing half-truths, and intellectually distorted reasoning in other forms. He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO”; The root cause of what happened to the so-called victim was their going out dressed like that last night. Also, if anything that summit was known for conspicuously "kicking the can down the road": It was more notable for declining to accept their applications of that time, precisely because of Russia's objections -- instead downgrading them to "aspirant" status. There is no evidence in what Putin has said that he wants to make Ukraine part of Russia,” Mearsheimer adds. Well, not all of it. He just wanted to annex parts of it. Leaving behind a rump state permanently pliable to Moscow's interests.