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That is a common argument here. It is also a logical fallacy. Because heavier than air apparatus can fly, dropbox made money and so on does not mean anything in
by trabant00 3y ago
That is a common argument here. It is also a logical fallacy. Because heavier than air apparatus can fly, dropbox made money and so on does not mean anything in the future will be successful.
- blowski 3y agoAbsolutely. HN has an abysmal track record of predicting the success or failure of most innovations, because it tends to over-estimate the importance of the technology itself and under-estimate the power of marketing to overcoming challenges in adoption. This is why I make no prediction whatsoever at this early stage - we know very little about it.
- acdha 3y agoIt’s not just marketing but also confusing our preferences with the market as a whole. For example, AirPods are not as good as my over ear headphones … but they’re impressively close and the AR features are quite effective. Based on flat sales for traditional headphones and huge sales for AirPods, they clearly targeted the much larger group who don’t value audio quality more than everything else.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- sebzim4500 3y agoUsing Apple's past track record to predict future success or failure is not a logical fallacy. And I have no idea why you are talking about dropbox and flying.
- rossng 3y agoInfamous Dropbox context: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9224 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9224
- mirekrusin 3y agoThere are other comments saying it's brilliant idea. Apple's new device will not fail because there was some comment in 2007 on HN related to dropbox that pointed out alternatives (but even that commenter said it's good idea for windows).
- rapsey 3y agoMan I love that comment. Always makes me laugh.