6 ms·

Yes, I know. And he's catastrophically wrong. I think he's blinded by his anti-western bias. Yes, west isn't the good guys. But Russia and China are definitely

by ajuc 3y ago

Yes, I know. And he's catastrophically wrong. I think he's blinded by his anti-western bias. Yes, west isn't the good guys. But Russia and China are definitely the bad guys in comparison. Americans didn't wanted to have a proxy (or any other) war against Russia. Americans tried to preserve USSR to keep the region stable and nukes in one place, when it didn't worked they tried establishing good relations and even invited Russia to NATO. Russia didn't wanted to be in an alliance where Latvia has as much say as they do. Because Russia wanted to regain its empire. This is what Eastern Europeans were trying to say for 30 years, and the West didn't listened. Even after 2008 and 2014. And then comes Chomsky&company and says "you easterners should be happy to live in a dictatorship >sphere of inlfuence< because we leftists know better what's good for you. No need to thank us". This is just colonialism. Since 90s it's always been Russia escalating and the West refusing to respond strongly enough, which gave Russia the perception that the West is weak and they can get even more if they escalate further. If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. We didn't, because it was easier in the short term to look the other way. But you can't ignore such things forever.

TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. We didn't, because it was easier in the short term to look the other way. That feels like 1930s and policy of appeasement, when Germany was taking back Rhineland, creating Luftwaffe, annexing Austria and France with Britain were just looking and doing nothing. Then Munich agreement came about and France with Britain signed it because they did not wanted to do anything. The rest of history is just WW2. It is almost comical to think, that WW2 in Europe could have been reduced to local conflict between Germany and France fighting over Rhineland.
- pieter_mj 3y ago
  WW2 became almost unavoidable the moment the US got involved in WW1 in 1916.
  - tourmalinetaco 3y ago
    As a history professor I had once said, “the only reason they stopped World War 1 was because they lost an entire generation of soldiers”.
hackandthink 3y ago
"But Russia and China are definitely the bad guys in comparison." I agree in the case of Russia, China seems to be dovish in regard of Ukraine. "If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars" I'm not sure here. My guess is Merkel and Macron were right in 2008: trying to get Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would have meant war with Russia. (actually Russia and Georgia fought a war in 2008 about South Ossetia). In my opinion Russia is the bad revisionist guy, but the politics of the West were amateurish and reckless. And in my opinion Ukraine needs a deal and it should have tried to keep Minsk 2. And I do not see this as colonial mindset, as Ukrainian I would think the same.
- ajuc 3y ago
  > And I do not see this as colonial mindset yes, that's usually how this works > My guess is Merkel and Macron were right in 2008: trying to get Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would have meant war with Russia Merkel just wanted cheap resources and "strategic independence" of USA. Nobody actually expected NATO vs Russia war in 2008 no matter which decision was taken. It was selfish and short-term politics, simple as that. > as Ukrainian I would think the same Ukrainians overwhelmingly disagree, but I'm sure you would be in the minority that is "right" :) You know better without actually living there after all :)
  - hackandthink 3y ago
    As a Western European, I am privileged and the simplest and perhaps best thing would be to just keep my mouth shut. But I actually have an opinion and this carnage is terrible. I am against participation in the war and stand by it. Western war mongers do more harm than good, and no one should rely on them. (the political situation is very different, but it is a lesson anyway, do not trust your allies, they have their own agenda) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal
    - ajuc 3y ago
      I am Polish. Western betrayal is a popular view here, but not universal (my own opinion is that it was bad luck - the combination of underestimating new military doctrine of blitzkrieg and the rise of USSR, nobody was planning on betrayal). The plans before WW2 were for Poland to defend for several months before the help arrives. WW1 made it look realistic. Blitzkrieg made it impossible, but it's anachronistic to view it as a betrayal. They simply didn't knew. Anyway, no matter how you look at it - Poles still fought for returning to the "western Europe" after that "betrayal". Because west might "betray" you, but Russia will genocide, censor, torture and exploit you till barely anything remains. These are the choices people in Eastern Europe have to make. If West didn't joined WW2 - Holocaust would finish succesfully. Then the plan was to starve most of Slavs, keep the rest as slaves and settle German colonizers in Ukraine to feed the 3rd Reich. By now we would have Nazis control half of Europe and have nukes. Much better? Or maybe the "warmongers" had a point? Ukrainians tried to find peace with Russia since 1991. There's just no way to do it. Russia wants to annex the whole Ukraine. They openly say this on their TV. And russian occupation isn't "safe". If you participated in any patriotic organisation, if you have Ukrainian tattoo, if you were important cultural or political figure - you are on russian list and they will kill you after they occupy Ukraine. This already happens on occupied territories. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russia-creating-lists-of-ukrainians-to-be-killed-or-sent-to-camps-report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russ... Ukrainians don't have a choice. And people like you make their situation worse.
fineIllregister 3y ago
> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. I don't think this true. The successful resistance to Russia is due to the current strength of Ukraine's military. They have been improving rapidly in response to 2014. Georgia is nowhere near as strong or easy for us to supply.
- ajuc 3y ago
  In the particular case of Georgia they weren't as insane in 2008 as it seems from the first glance. Russia was separated from Georgia by Caucasian mountains. Upto 5000 meters high. There are a few routes (famously the "Georgian war route" which I visited recently) going through long mountain tunnels which if collapsed would make the defense pretty easy (assuming NATO provides air defence weapons and intelligence). Georgia is pretty sparsely populated apart from the capital - half of the population lives in Tbilisi. Relatively easy to create air defense for such a country. Georgians took one of these routes early on and tried to collapse the tunnels but were driven back by russian airforce before they could do it. Given enough material support it was perfectly possible to stop Russia there. But I wasn't even talking about that - even just introducing serious sanctions in 2008 would probably prevent the further escalations by Russia. Instead we persuaded Putin that we are divided and won't react. So he tried in Ukraine and Syria. And Ukraine again. And when we finally reacted seriously he's suddenly surprised and accuses us of "trapping him" :)
dragonwriter 3y ago
> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. Yes, had NATO rebuffed Russia’s lies about its peaceful intentions in the region and its protestations of the destabilizing effect of extending MAPs to Ukraine and Georgia and extended both countries MAPs and interim security guarantees in 2008, the sequence of Russia-initiated wars that began immediately after they succeeded in tricking NATO would not have occurred. That is eminently clear in retrospect; Russia was trying to buy breathing room for intervention, and succeeded. To be fair, that was far from clear prospectively at the time; it wasn’t like Hitler overtly seeking the Sudetenland after the Anschluss: aggressive expansionism hadn’t been telegraphed, and it wasn’t a “give them a bit, and they won’t take more” situation. The people who made the wrong choices in 2008 weren’t in the position as the people arguing for appeasement today, despite the last 15 years of history.
- ajuc 3y ago
  It was clear to everybody in Eastern Europe. See: > Poland's Lech Kaczyński in August 2008 traveled to Tbilisi together with the presidents of Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to show solidarity with Georgia in the face of Russia's invasion of that country, according to accounts by officials. > He said at the time: "Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow the Baltic states, and then, perhaps, the time will come for my country, Poland." https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/artykul/2353833,11-years-since-landmark-speech-by-polish-leader-in-georgia https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/artykul/2353833,11-year...
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    Its true Eastern European NATO members have been more cautious of. Russia, but its worth noting this was a response to the invasion of Georgia and I was referring to decisions at NATO prior.
theironhammer 3y ago
So if Canada or Mexico decides to pivot toward China you think the Elites in Washington would stand idly by?
- ajuc 3y ago
  If USA invaded Mexico or Canada I would support defending them. But I don't think it would happen.
  - theironhammer 3y ago
    Fair enough. But the point is geopolitics, not what is right. The USA would not tolerate China in their "sphere of influence". Krushchev and Cuba learned that. Russia is a nuclear power. Policy makers in the US State department should remind themselves of this fact however inconvenient.
    - chrysler 3y ago
      >> The USA would not tolerate China in their "sphere of influence". Krushchev and Cuba learned that. 1. Nobody takes "spheres of influence" seriously in modern day. It's a 19th century simplification that divides countries into empires and colonies. It doesn't really describe the complexity of modern day international relations where even very small countries like Iceland can have disproportional impact. 2. China is building a military base in Cuba, and yet you are probably not even aware of that, because again, the world is a little bit more complex than what you've become to believe and officials operate with more than just a phone line to bomber command.

by ajuc 3y ago

TheLoafOfBread 3y ago

> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. We didn't, because it was easier in the short term to look the other way. That feels like 1930s and policy of appeasement, when Germany was taking back Rhineland, creating Luftwaffe, annexing Austria and France with Britain were just looking and doing nothing. Then Munich agreement came about and France with Britain signed it because they did not wanted to do anything. The rest of history is just WW2. It is almost comical to think, that WW2 in Europe could have been reduced to local conflict between Germany and France fighting over Rhineland.

pieter_mj 3y ago
WW2 became almost unavoidable the moment the US got involved in WW1 in 1916.
- tourmalinetaco 3y ago
  As a history professor I had once said, “the only reason they stopped World War 1 was because they lost an entire generation of soldiers”.

hackandthink 3y ago

"But Russia and China are definitely the bad guys in comparison." I agree in the case of Russia, China seems to be dovish in regard of Ukraine. "If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars" I'm not sure here. My guess is Merkel and Macron were right in 2008: trying to get Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would have meant war with Russia. (actually Russia and Georgia fought a war in 2008 about South Ossetia). In my opinion Russia is the bad revisionist guy, but the politics of the West were amateurish and reckless. And in my opinion Ukraine needs a deal and it should have tried to keep Minsk 2. And I do not see this as colonial mindset, as Ukrainian I would think the same.

ajuc 3y ago
> And I do not see this as colonial mindset yes, that's usually how this works > My guess is Merkel and Macron were right in 2008: trying to get Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would have meant war with Russia Merkel just wanted cheap resources and "strategic independence" of USA. Nobody actually expected NATO vs Russia war in 2008 no matter which decision was taken. It was selfish and short-term politics, simple as that. > as Ukrainian I would think the same Ukrainians overwhelmingly disagree, but I'm sure you would be in the minority that is "right" :) You know better without actually living there after all :)
- hackandthink 3y ago
  As a Western European, I am privileged and the simplest and perhaps best thing would be to just keep my mouth shut. But I actually have an opinion and this carnage is terrible. I am against participation in the war and stand by it. Western war mongers do more harm than good, and no one should rely on them. (the political situation is very different, but it is a lesson anyway, do not trust your allies, they have their own agenda) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal
  - ajuc 3y ago
    I am Polish. Western betrayal is a popular view here, but not universal (my own opinion is that it was bad luck - the combination of underestimating new military doctrine of blitzkrieg and the rise of USSR, nobody was planning on betrayal). The plans before WW2 were for Poland to defend for several months before the help arrives. WW1 made it look realistic. Blitzkrieg made it impossible, but it's anachronistic to view it as a betrayal. They simply didn't knew. Anyway, no matter how you look at it - Poles still fought for returning to the "western Europe" after that "betrayal". Because west might "betray" you, but Russia will genocide, censor, torture and exploit you till barely anything remains. These are the choices people in Eastern Europe have to make. If West didn't joined WW2 - Holocaust would finish succesfully. Then the plan was to starve most of Slavs, keep the rest as slaves and settle German colonizers in Ukraine to feed the 3rd Reich. By now we would have Nazis control half of Europe and have nukes. Much better? Or maybe the "warmongers" had a point? Ukrainians tried to find peace with Russia since 1991. There's just no way to do it. Russia wants to annex the whole Ukraine. They openly say this on their TV. And russian occupation isn't "safe". If you participated in any patriotic organisation, if you have Ukrainian tattoo, if you were important cultural or political figure - you are on russian list and they will kill you after they occupy Ukraine. This already happens on occupied territories. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russia-creating-lists-of-ukrainians-to-be-killed-or-sent-to-camps-report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russ... Ukrainians don't have a choice. And people like you make their situation worse.

fineIllregister 3y ago

> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. I don't think this true. The successful resistance to Russia is due to the current strength of Ukraine's military. They have been improving rapidly in response to 2014. Georgia is nowhere near as strong or easy for us to supply.

ajuc 3y ago
In the particular case of Georgia they weren't as insane in 2008 as it seems from the first glance. Russia was separated from Georgia by Caucasian mountains. Upto 5000 meters high. There are a few routes (famously the "Georgian war route" which I visited recently) going through long mountain tunnels which if collapsed would make the defense pretty easy (assuming NATO provides air defence weapons and intelligence). Georgia is pretty sparsely populated apart from the capital - half of the population lives in Tbilisi. Relatively easy to create air defense for such a country. Georgians took one of these routes early on and tried to collapse the tunnels but were driven back by russian airforce before they could do it. Given enough material support it was perfectly possible to stop Russia there. But I wasn't even talking about that - even just introducing serious sanctions in 2008 would probably prevent the further escalations by Russia. Instead we persuaded Putin that we are divided and won't react. So he tried in Ukraine and Syria. And Ukraine again. And when we finally reacted seriously he's suddenly surprised and accuses us of "trapping him" :)

dragonwriter 3y ago

> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. Yes, had NATO rebuffed Russia’s lies about its peaceful intentions in the region and its protestations of the destabilizing effect of extending MAPs to Ukraine and Georgia and extended both countries MAPs and interim security guarantees in 2008, the sequence of Russia-initiated wars that began immediately after they succeeded in tricking NATO would not have occurred. That is eminently clear in retrospect; Russia was trying to buy breathing room for intervention, and succeeded. To be fair, that was far from clear prospectively at the time; it wasn’t like Hitler overtly seeking the Sudetenland after the Anschluss: aggressive expansionism hadn’t been telegraphed, and it wasn’t a “give them a bit, and they won’t take more” situation. The people who made the wrong choices in 2008 weren’t in the position as the people arguing for appeasement today, despite the last 15 years of history.

ajuc 3y ago
It was clear to everybody in Eastern Europe. See: > Poland's Lech Kaczyński in August 2008 traveled to Tbilisi together with the presidents of Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to show solidarity with Georgia in the face of Russia's invasion of that country, according to accounts by officials. > He said at the time: "Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow the Baltic states, and then, perhaps, the time will come for my country, Poland." https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/artykul/2353833,11-years-since-landmark-speech-by-polish-leader-in-georgia https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/artykul/2353833,11-year...
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  Its true Eastern European NATO members have been more cautious of. Russia, but its worth noting this was a response to the invasion of Georgia and I was referring to decisions at NATO prior.

theironhammer 3y ago

So if Canada or Mexico decides to pivot toward China you think the Elites in Washington would stand idly by?

ajuc 3y ago
If USA invaded Mexico or Canada I would support defending them. But I don't think it would happen.
- theironhammer 3y ago
  Fair enough. But the point is geopolitics, not what is right. The USA would not tolerate China in their "sphere of influence". Krushchev and Cuba learned that. Russia is a nuclear power. Policy makers in the US State department should remind themselves of this fact however inconvenient.
  - chrysler 3y ago
    >> The USA would not tolerate China in their "sphere of influence". Krushchev and Cuba learned that. 1. Nobody takes "spheres of influence" seriously in modern day. It's a 19th century simplification that divides countries into empires and colonies. It doesn't really describe the complexity of modern day international relations where even very small countries like Iceland can have disproportional impact. 2. China is building a military base in Cuba, and yet you are probably not even aware of that, because again, the world is a little bit more complex than what you've become to believe and officials operate with more than just a phone line to bomber command.