6 ms·

How much of this is due to crime, versus WFH causing downtown to be less busy?

by breadwinner 3y ago

rr808 3y ago
13.4% due to crime, and 46.2% due to reduced traffic and 34.1% some combination and 6.3% unknown.
- abhayhegde 3y ago
  What's your source?
estebank 3y ago
Look at the previous to last chart at https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/westfield-charts-18148893.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/westfield-charts... That's a drop of foot traffic of more than half in the area.
- mlyle 3y ago
  The problem is, this doesn't show causation. Obviously foot traffic is important to retail success, but retail success is important to vibrance. And crime is important to both retail success and foot traffic.
dehrmann 3y ago
These are linked. Most of Downtown SF's desirability was you can work there and make a lot of money. When you could suddenly work other places for the same money, the main reason to go was gone. SF's pandemic policies exacerbated this by further driving certain people away from the city. Without office workers to put pressure on the city to keep the area safe-ish (or at least hide what's going on), the TL spread. And now, even if people return to the office, there's no reason for it to be in SF.
givemeethekeys 3y ago
The area near the mall was pretty uninviting even before the guidelines to ignore theft under $1000 came into effect. Aggressive people high on drugs, exposed needles, and human feces were pretty much the norm, despite all the wealth that flowed into SF due to its growth. Everyone either was or personally knew at least one victim of a car break-in or bicycle theft. The government ignored all those issues because it didn't stop people from visiting SF, setting up businesses there and buying real estate there. Things got worse during the pandemic. City turned into a ghost town. The shoplifting went into high gear, and the density of tents around downtown went up even more. Still the city didn't do anything. I bet they thought, "oh, this pandemic will be over soon and all the working from home will end along with it".
- mc32 3y ago
  Worse yet, the DA and supes were on board with not prosecuting crimes, so the police stopped arresting people since they'd be out on the street in a short time anyway. People would claim people are poor and don't have money and SF is expensive to that absolves their crimes --the thing is poor people, by and large, are not thieves. The thieves are professional crews. And then, criticism of a DA not prosecuting crime, you know, their job, was met with accusations of being "right-wing," and it still is, though fewer people believe that take anymore. A new supe, who believes in prosecuting crime, Joel Engardio, is, at times, accused of being right wing, despite being a normal democrat. It's nuts.
- abnerg 3y ago
  This is the correct answer. I (and many others) used to work near there. That mall wasn’t very useful and located on the edge of Union Square and a rough neighborhood. Reduce foot traffic from office dwellers by 50% and you basically kill Union Square retail. Drop tourism by however much that’s fallen and that’s the end of your mall. The dystopian takes are overblown, but the city needs a plan for a world with fewer people working along Market Street.
deviantbit 3y ago
The data from police does not reflect what businesses are reporting. This may be due to reclassification of crimes. Also police do not respond to theft any longer. https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim... AT&T is closing their store. They've lost over 1 million in inventory over the past 2 years. The author Shelby Steele had their camera equipment stolen valued at over $20,000, and the police didn't bother to show up.
- talldatethrow 3y ago
  I saw someone run out of a major hardware store with a large compressor. I saw him throw it into the back of a early 2000s White Nissan Xterra. I asked the the store clerk if he wants that info for calling it in, I know that car well because I used to own one. He told me they don't call in crimes at all the the police because it doesn't do anything. So your town city hall and police might not even KNOW how bad crime is.
- _dain_ 3y ago
  >The data from police does not reflect what businesses are reporting. This may be due to reclassification of crimes. Why would people even bother to report crimes when nothing is done about them?
tlogan 3y ago
I believe the main reason is that particular neighborhood in San Francisco is dangerous now. In short, certain areas of San Francisco have escalated from being merely uninviting to dangerously unsafe. Like recent story from good morning America: they got scared going downtown at 4am. What a cry babies.. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12202737/amp/GMA-tells-reporter-NOT-downtown-San-Francisco-dangerous.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12202737/amp/GMA-te...
simoncion 3y ago
The Westfield Mall is very close to the Financial District. Nearly _everything_ in the Financial District was open _only_ during regular business hours -- those businesses were there to only cater to the folks working in FiDi and noone else. Outside of business hours (and during many business holidays) that district was dead, dead, dead. I wonder how much outside-of-work-hours spillover there was from FiDi office workers to businesses immediately adjacent to FiDi, and also wonder if those adjacent businesses have been significantly impacted now that oh so many people are no longer working inside those offices.
- idlewords 3y ago
  The Westfield Mall was right off a BART stop, so it was a fairly convenient place to go shop in SF if you didn't have a car. It was also near the flagship stores around Union Square, which is the main hotel district and another destination shopping spot. So the mall (at least when I used to go there) would be pretty busy even on weekends or evenings when the financial district was dead silent.
  - simoncion 3y ago
    Oh yeah, it is definitely in a really good location. Being right next to BART is usually super good for foot traffic... and being very close to Union Square is (was?) also super good. And yeah, like four years ago the Westfield Mall had _way_ more foot traffic than it had the few times I visited like four or six months ago. I was just wondering out loud about the effects of the loss of the workers in FiDi.
proc0 3y ago
They're not mutually exclusive. I for one moved out during lockdowns because of the crime (and hygiene issues). I would have stayed otherwise, regardless of WFH or not.

How much of this is due to crime, versus WFH causing downtown to be less busy?

rr808 3y ago

13.4% due to crime, and 46.2% due to reduced traffic and 34.1% some combination and 6.3% unknown.

abhayhegde 3y ago
What's your source?

estebank 3y ago

Look at the previous to last chart at https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/westfield-charts-18148893.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/westfield-charts... That's a drop of foot traffic of more than half in the area.

mlyle 3y ago
The problem is, this doesn't show causation. Obviously foot traffic is important to retail success, but retail success is important to vibrance. And crime is important to both retail success and foot traffic.

dehrmann 3y ago

These are linked. Most of Downtown SF's desirability was you can work there and make a lot of money. When you could suddenly work other places for the same money, the main reason to go was gone. SF's pandemic policies exacerbated this by further driving certain people away from the city. Without office workers to put pressure on the city to keep the area safe-ish (or at least hide what's going on), the TL spread. And now, even if people return to the office, there's no reason for it to be in SF.

givemeethekeys 3y ago

The area near the mall was pretty uninviting even before the guidelines to ignore theft under $1000 came into effect. Aggressive people high on drugs, exposed needles, and human feces were pretty much the norm, despite all the wealth that flowed into SF due to its growth. Everyone either was or personally knew at least one victim of a car break-in or bicycle theft. The government ignored all those issues because it didn't stop people from visiting SF, setting up businesses there and buying real estate there. Things got worse during the pandemic. City turned into a ghost town. The shoplifting went into high gear, and the density of tents around downtown went up even more. Still the city didn't do anything. I bet they thought, "oh, this pandemic will be over soon and all the working from home will end along with it".

mc32 3y ago
Worse yet, the DA and supes were on board with not prosecuting crimes, so the police stopped arresting people since they'd be out on the street in a short time anyway. People would claim people are poor and don't have money and SF is expensive to that absolves their crimes --the thing is poor people, by and large, are not thieves. The thieves are professional crews. And then, criticism of a DA not prosecuting crime, you know, their job, was met with accusations of being "right-wing," and it still is, though fewer people believe that take anymore. A new supe, who believes in prosecuting crime, Joel Engardio, is, at times, accused of being right wing, despite being a normal democrat. It's nuts.
abnerg 3y ago
This is the correct answer. I (and many others) used to work near there. That mall wasn’t very useful and located on the edge of Union Square and a rough neighborhood. Reduce foot traffic from office dwellers by 50% and you basically kill Union Square retail. Drop tourism by however much that’s fallen and that’s the end of your mall. The dystopian takes are overblown, but the city needs a plan for a world with fewer people working along Market Street.

deviantbit 3y ago

The data from police does not reflect what businesses are reporting. This may be due to reclassification of crimes. Also police do not respond to theft any longer. https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim... AT&T is closing their store. They've lost over 1 million in inventory over the past 2 years. The author Shelby Steele had their camera equipment stolen valued at over $20,000, and the police didn't bother to show up.

talldatethrow 3y ago
I saw someone run out of a major hardware store with a large compressor. I saw him throw it into the back of a early 2000s White Nissan Xterra. I asked the the store clerk if he wants that info for calling it in, I know that car well because I used to own one. He told me they don't call in crimes at all the the police because it doesn't do anything. So your town city hall and police might not even KNOW how bad crime is.
_dain_ 3y ago
>The data from police does not reflect what businesses are reporting. This may be due to reclassification of crimes. Why would people even bother to report crimes when nothing is done about them?

tlogan 3y ago

I believe the main reason is that particular neighborhood in San Francisco is dangerous now. In short, certain areas of San Francisco have escalated from being merely uninviting to dangerously unsafe. Like recent story from good morning America: they got scared going downtown at 4am. What a cry babies.. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12202737/amp/GMA-tells-reporter-NOT-downtown-San-Francisco-dangerous.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12202737/amp/GMA-te...

simoncion 3y ago

The Westfield Mall is very close to the Financial District. Nearly _everything_ in the Financial District was open _only_ during regular business hours -- those businesses were there to only cater to the folks working in FiDi and noone else. Outside of business hours (and during many business holidays) that district was dead, dead, dead. I wonder how much outside-of-work-hours spillover there was from FiDi office workers to businesses immediately adjacent to FiDi, and also wonder if those adjacent businesses have been significantly impacted now that oh so many people are no longer working inside those offices.

idlewords 3y ago
The Westfield Mall was right off a BART stop, so it was a fairly convenient place to go shop in SF if you didn't have a car. It was also near the flagship stores around Union Square, which is the main hotel district and another destination shopping spot. So the mall (at least when I used to go there) would be pretty busy even on weekends or evenings when the financial district was dead silent.
- simoncion 3y ago
  Oh yeah, it is definitely in a really good location. Being right next to BART is usually super good for foot traffic... and being very close to Union Square is (was?) also super good. And yeah, like four years ago the Westfield Mall had _way_ more foot traffic than it had the few times I visited like four or six months ago. I was just wondering out loud about the effects of the loss of the workers in FiDi.

proc0 3y ago

They're not mutually exclusive. I for one moved out during lockdowns because of the crime (and hygiene issues). I would have stayed otherwise, regardless of WFH or not.