I agree this seems to be the reason. The second urn has a more uncertain return in the same way that I'm uncertain about the 98th digit of pi. It's not a random

I agree this seems to be the reason. The second urn has a more uncertain return in the same way that I'm uncertain about the 98th digit of pi. It's not a random event, but my certainty around it is related to the deductive effort I put in. It's immediately clear that they're the same-ish, and also immediately clear that the first urn doesn't have a gotcha. Still very interesting.