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There's no doubt that Reddit, in some form, would survive if Spez were to keep a firm line, unilaterally replace volunteer moderators, and cater to that "larger

by btown 3y ago

There's no doubt that Reddit, in some form, would survive if Spez were to keep a firm line, unilaterally replace volunteer moderators, and cater to that "larger group." But that in some form should be terrifying to institutional investors evaluating or underwriting this IPO. Will users under the new status quo have significantly different retention patterns and lifetime value when consuming content moderated by the moderators that led Reddit to the point where it's able to IPO in the first place? It's very possible that retention numbers drop through the floor because subreddits lose the unique character that made Reddit different from any other social media platform - a character traced through a continuous history of mods on large and small subreddits, chosen as stewards of established per-subreddit culture, now to be wiped away. In the current market environment, doesn't that make Reddit a riskier investment than ever? And it wouldn't take a lot to fix. Spez doesn't even necessarily need to reverse the API restrictions. He just needs to communicate and listen to mods with empathy, and establish that empathy publicly and privately as a top company priority. It's not too late for him to do that and save the company. And the more he refuses to do that, the more questions investors will ask about his readiness to lead.

hackinthebochs 3y ago
>But that in some form should be terrifying to institutional investors evaluating or underwriting this IPO Far more terrifying is a site that is perpetually at the mercy of a handful of powerusers. That if the winds change, they collectively could tank the value of the product with no way for investors to intervene. If I were going to invest in Reddit, I would want the CEO to show that ultimately he/reddit is in control. He is a known, predictable quantity. He is also someone that can be replaced if things go too far off the rails. The whims of the pseudo-aristocracy is completely out of my control.
- zozbot234 3y ago
  That 'handful of power users' is behind much of the value creation on that site. Reddit.com was always at their mercy, nothing substantial has changed here.
  - hackinthebochs 3y ago
    By power users I meant current moderators. Of course there are other power users that post content for fake points. but they have different motivations. The moderators are far more expendable than the power posters. There is no end of people willing to sacrifice their free time for the status of being a mod of a large sub. The point is to make sure everyone knows that ultimately reddit is in charge and find a collective of mods that are OK with the status quo and know not to rock the boat too much.
    - piva00 3y ago
      It's a symbiosis though. Power posters add content for fake points because there is moderation to keep spam, trash, flamewars (when strictly moderated) at bay so their posts are not lost in the noise. If a subreddit for a class of products gets flooded with sale spam, low quality content, memes, it will push the users who create higher quality content away. The same for a subreddit about hobbies, if it's not curated to have a good intro FAQ and collection of guides for beginners, and good moderation that is empathetic but can enforce guidelines on questions that constantly pop up, it will push people away because of the noise. Moderation on reddit is what can control the noise, with a low signal-to-noise ratio the power posters disappear.
stereolambda 3y ago
I agree with the first paragraph. As to the rest, the finance people could dump the stock on someone assuming there will be a period of (un)reasonable optimism not far from the IPO. This is par for the course with overhyped stocks AFAIK. They even can have some semblance of profitability from running Reddit completely as a Skinner box internet chum feeder with brand recognition. I think the best scenario (globally) is that a new generation of internet power users, at least 5-20% of them, would learn federation and forums. This could be a lesson for... half a decade, maybe. The ones foolish enough to stay in their pens will be only having it worse as time goes on.

by btown 3y ago

hackinthebochs 3y ago

>But that in some form should be terrifying to institutional investors evaluating or underwriting this IPO Far more terrifying is a site that is perpetually at the mercy of a handful of powerusers. That if the winds change, they collectively could tank the value of the product with no way for investors to intervene. If I were going to invest in Reddit, I would want the CEO to show that ultimately he/reddit is in control. He is a known, predictable quantity. He is also someone that can be replaced if things go too far off the rails. The whims of the pseudo-aristocracy is completely out of my control.

zozbot234 3y ago
That 'handful of power users' is behind much of the value creation on that site. Reddit.com was always at their mercy, nothing substantial has changed here.
- hackinthebochs 3y ago
  By power users I meant current moderators. Of course there are other power users that post content for fake points. but they have different motivations. The moderators are far more expendable than the power posters. There is no end of people willing to sacrifice their free time for the status of being a mod of a large sub. The point is to make sure everyone knows that ultimately reddit is in charge and find a collective of mods that are OK with the status quo and know not to rock the boat too much.
  - piva00 3y ago
    It's a symbiosis though. Power posters add content for fake points because there is moderation to keep spam, trash, flamewars (when strictly moderated) at bay so their posts are not lost in the noise. If a subreddit for a class of products gets flooded with sale spam, low quality content, memes, it will push the users who create higher quality content away. The same for a subreddit about hobbies, if it's not curated to have a good intro FAQ and collection of guides for beginners, and good moderation that is empathetic but can enforce guidelines on questions that constantly pop up, it will push people away because of the noise. Moderation on reddit is what can control the noise, with a low signal-to-noise ratio the power posters disappear.

stereolambda 3y ago

I agree with the first paragraph. As to the rest, the finance people could dump the stock on someone assuming there will be a period of (un)reasonable optimism not far from the IPO. This is par for the course with overhyped stocks AFAIK. They even can have some semblance of profitability from running Reddit completely as a Skinner box internet chum feeder with brand recognition. I think the best scenario (globally) is that a new generation of internet power users, at least 5-20% of them, would learn federation and forums. This could be a lesson for... half a decade, maybe. The ones foolish enough to stay in their pens will be only having it worse as time goes on.