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You didn’t really respond to the parent comment’s question. Sea level around Miami will rise about a foot over the next thirty years and a little over an additi

You didn’t really respond to the parent comment’s question. Sea level around Miami will rise about a foot over the next thirty years and a little over an additional foot over the following 30 years [1]. Most of Miami is about 6-8 feet above sea level. So again, what timeline are you worried about? Other parts of the Florida coast are definitely screwed, though (ex. The Keys). [1] https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/sea-level-rise https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/sea-level-rise

pyrale 3y ago
The rise is a mean. That means that high tides, water surges due to storms, etc. will also be amplified. If you consider the current risk of flooding as a stochastic process, moving the mean may result in an exponential risk increase.
WorldMaker 3y ago
Most of Miami is 6-8 feet today because Miami has had mayors (mostly democrats) for multiple decades now that took climate change seriously, made it a core part of city planning, and overall, in general, the city paid a lot of money to avoid some of the most egregious mistakes ahead of time in its infrastructure. "Miami is going to be fine, mostly" isn't a slam dunk argument that climate change won't have real impacts, because Miami has already been fighting against it. (A lot of the rest of Florida has more to worry about in part because they haven't been nearly as proactive.)
acdha 3y ago
Yes, we’re not going to rename it to New Atlantis with submarine tours but that doesn’t mean everything is fine. Storm surges are the most dramatic problem since the max matters more than the median for where you can build things, but there are other problems around the water table rising and septic systems. Flooding of low roads, parks, etc. is common even without storms and storm flooding can take longer to drain, too. Before they moved, some family members saw hefty increases for insurance premiums and restricted coverage – and that trend is just getting started. Each of the things which needs to be hardened or redesigned costs billions, and there’s no guarantee that those projects will be enough, or that there won’t be other impacts on the economy if, say, popular tourist beaches aren’t as attractive due to erosion or some hotels are severely damaged.

pyrale 3y ago

The rise is a mean. That means that high tides, water surges due to storms, etc. will also be amplified. If you consider the current risk of flooding as a stochastic process, moving the mean may result in an exponential risk increase.

WorldMaker 3y ago

Most of Miami is 6-8 feet today because Miami has had mayors (mostly democrats) for multiple decades now that took climate change seriously, made it a core part of city planning, and overall, in general, the city paid a lot of money to avoid some of the most egregious mistakes ahead of time in its infrastructure. "Miami is going to be fine, mostly" isn't a slam dunk argument that climate change won't have real impacts, because Miami has already been fighting against it. (A lot of the rest of Florida has more to worry about in part because they haven't been nearly as proactive.)

acdha 3y ago

Yes, we’re not going to rename it to New Atlantis with submarine tours but that doesn’t mean everything is fine. Storm surges are the most dramatic problem since the max matters more than the median for where you can build things, but there are other problems around the water table rising and septic systems. Flooding of low roads, parks, etc. is common even without storms and storm flooding can take longer to drain, too. Before they moved, some family members saw hefty increases for insurance premiums and restricted coverage – and that trend is just getting started. Each of the things which needs to be hardened or redesigned costs billions, and there’s no guarantee that those projects will be enough, or that there won’t be other impacts on the economy if, say, popular tourist beaches aren’t as attractive due to erosion or some hotels are severely damaged.