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> almost no chance of coming true I agree, with caveats. The worst case emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5) are not likely to happen because we'll hit economic limi
by perrygeo 3y ago
> almost no chance of coming true
I agree, with caveats.
The worst case emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5) are not likely to happen because we'll hit economic limits that prevent us from accessing every last drop. We're already past peak conventional oil and dipping into the low EROI tight oil. At some point in the future, there will be plenty of oil left but it will be the bottom of the barrel, too expensive to access at a profit. So even if we technically have enough carbon in the ground to spike CO2 to those levels, economic incentives and availability of alternatives are likely to prevent it long before we get there.
That said, I think we're underestimating the impacts of even low emissions scenarios. Even if we stopped all CO2 emissions today, we're locked into a wild ride of feedback loops for the next century or more. A low carbon future doesn't free us from climate impacts. I'm not saying we should give up on mitigation but we certainly can't ignore adaptation - no one is "fixing" climate change without a time machine.