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> You're assuming that the rate is evenly distributed. I think it's very likely that it isn't; if you're involved in espionage or organized crime, you probably
by alister 15y ago
> You're assuming that the rate is evenly distributed. I think it's very likely that it isn't; if you're involved in espionage or organized crime, you probably know several people who were being tracked by the FBI.
Yes, I assumed an even distribution because it's the best I can do based on available information. If the FBI would publish an annual list of the names of people they tracked and the reasons why, then we could create more precise odds based on individual circumstance.
- Locke1689 15y agoI think cperciva was trying to point out that if you have no reasonable basis to make a distribution assumption you also have no basis to make a conclusion. In my own life I've been trying to abide more by Wittgenstein's Tractatus conclusion: Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen. ("Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must remain silent.")
- tripzilch 15y agoAber, Hoffnung ist nur mangel auf Information ;-)