4 ms·
The estimate-confidence relation is not linear. In my experience it follows some kind of S-curve, with 0% confidence approaching impossibly short times and 100%
by pph 3y ago
The estimate-confidence relation is not linear. In my experience it follows some kind of S-curve, with 0% confidence approaching impossibly short times and 100% approaching infinity (like a logistic function).
- staunton 3y agoThe logistic function is bounded, so I'm not sure what you mean...
- trashtester 3y agoTime spent is on the x-axis and confidence on the y axis. To reach 100% confidence, you have to supply an infinite estiamate.
- trashtester 3y agoI think software projects are best estimated as gamma distributions. To express that as confidence levels, you use the cumulative distribution function of the gamma, which are kind of S shaped, but stretched to the right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_distribution
- trashtester 3y agoFor instance, if you have a task that you cannot imagine taking less than 50 days, the actual time can follow the following distribution: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=gamma+distribution+with+shape+7+and+scale+50 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=gamma+distribution+with... And the confidence distribution would be: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=cumulative+gamma+distribution+with+shape+7+and+scale+50 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=cumulative+gamma+distri...