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Why do software people think they're special? Like it's somehow expected that we can predict everything because we're computer geniuses? We would have accurate

Why do software people think they're special? Like it's somehow expected that we can predict everything because we're computer geniuses? We would have accurate estimates if only we "scienced" better? If you want to get very good at estimation, do it for a very long time. Then you will see how your estimates would be very accurate if all the other things in the world didn't happen. Just let go of the idea that you will ever have control over this aspect of life.

eru 3y ago
Some industries are pretty good at estimating effort. Eg when a film crew shoots, they have so many weeks, and they usually manage to shoot the footage for the movie within that time.
- precommunicator 3y ago
  Sure. But software is infinitely more complex than movie or any pure hardware engineering
  - eru 3y ago
    I agree. But the original comment I replied to said: > Why do software people think they're special? And the answer to that is: software is complicated.
- borplk 3y ago
  One of the big reasons that software estimation doesn't work well is because due to the virtual nature of software it is way too easy to move the goal post in subtle or not subtle ways. In "real world" projects such as civil engineering everything is a lot more stable. You don't start with the intention of building a bridge and decide to turn it into an airport halfway through the project. In software projects one way or another people do frequently keep changing things so the parameters are always changing from under your feet.
  - sh34r 3y ago
    In the "real world," estimates are also terrible. Even for something as simple and well-defined as repaving an airport runway, research shows the actual cost exceeds estimated cost by a median factor of 1.25.https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-forecast-always-wrong-video-1/ https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analys... Have you ever heard anyone ever say their kitchen renovation project came in under budget? Humans are just doomed to never be good at estimating, in any context, outside the simplest of tasks. Software has unique challenges that make it inherently difficult, but the bigger problem is all the incessant micromanagement, tooling like Jira that enables management's worst behaviors, and lack of any union representation or solidarity among developers. There's an infestation of libertarians that think they're better than everyone else, that think they can meet these impossible standards. They're too naive to realize that if they did make a miracle happen, management would just move the goalposts again and again, until you burn out, your wife leaves you, and you decide to start farming goats or whatever. We all need to refuse to play no-win games collectively. No estimates is the only answer. They can't fire us all. Collective action is probably a pipe dream, though. With that in mind, I think half the issues with this career would go away overnight if a Russian ransomware gang erased Jira and Atlassian out of existence. Those grifters are selling the corporate equivalent of fentanyl laced with benzos to middle managers. Jira is poison.

eru 3y ago

Some industries are pretty good at estimating effort. Eg when a film crew shoots, they have so many weeks, and they usually manage to shoot the footage for the movie within that time.

precommunicator 3y ago
Sure. But software is infinitely more complex than movie or any pure hardware engineering
- eru 3y ago
  I agree. But the original comment I replied to said: > Why do software people think they're special? And the answer to that is: software is complicated.
borplk 3y ago
One of the big reasons that software estimation doesn't work well is because due to the virtual nature of software it is way too easy to move the goal post in subtle or not subtle ways. In "real world" projects such as civil engineering everything is a lot more stable. You don't start with the intention of building a bridge and decide to turn it into an airport halfway through the project. In software projects one way or another people do frequently keep changing things so the parameters are always changing from under your feet.
- sh34r 3y ago
  In the "real world," estimates are also terrible. Even for something as simple and well-defined as repaving an airport runway, research shows the actual cost exceeds estimated cost by a median factor of 1.25.https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-forecast-always-wrong-video-1/ https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analys... Have you ever heard anyone ever say their kitchen renovation project came in under budget? Humans are just doomed to never be good at estimating, in any context, outside the simplest of tasks. Software has unique challenges that make it inherently difficult, but the bigger problem is all the incessant micromanagement, tooling like Jira that enables management's worst behaviors, and lack of any union representation or solidarity among developers. There's an infestation of libertarians that think they're better than everyone else, that think they can meet these impossible standards. They're too naive to realize that if they did make a miracle happen, management would just move the goalposts again and again, until you burn out, your wife leaves you, and you decide to start farming goats or whatever. We all need to refuse to play no-win games collectively. No estimates is the only answer. They can't fire us all. Collective action is probably a pipe dream, though. With that in mind, I think half the issues with this career would go away overnight if a Russian ransomware gang erased Jira and Atlassian out of existence. Those grifters are selling the corporate equivalent of fentanyl laced with benzos to middle managers. Jira is poison.