5 ms·

I wish climate change news would make some effort to distinguish among the following levels of climate change outcomes: 1) the change would mean we have to chan

by ftxbro 3y ago

I wish climate change news would make some effort to distinguish among the following levels of climate change outcomes: 1) the change would mean we have to change our way of life in some way like wear more sunscreen and not eat cows anymore and food gets more expensive and glaciers melt and polar bears now live only in zoos vs. 2) there will be major upheaval like every coastal city goes underwater and central USA for example will become like the sahara desert and many people die and it causes wars vs. 3) we reach some feedback loop where earth becomes just literally venus and every liquid and metal vaporizes and every human dies even the grandchildren of billionaires and even the ones who tried to burrow under ground. I feel like so many stories about climate change the headline is like 'humans are doomed if we don't stay below 2 degrees Celsius increase since pre-industrial baseline' and then the body of the article is like 'our way of life will be affected by climate change if we don't do whatever'. I feel like this framing is bad. I'm not a climate change denier. I'm not even one of the guys who is like 'woke democrats are trying to hijack the climate change issue to take away my steaks and make me live in the pod and eat bugs'. I just want some information and not be lied to. Maybe it's normal journalistic sensationalism but I feel like it's extra damaging for this issue in particular.

wrycoder 3y ago
You forgot: 0) Since the troposphere has actually warmed only 0.5C in the last forty years, and the world is rapidly reducing human CO2 emissions (which turn out to be a smaller fraction of the total than previously thought), there is little to worry about, and we should direct our efforts at resolving more important issues.
- rcme 3y ago
  0.5C in 40 years sounds like a lot.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ftxbro 3y ago
  I'm not an expert but my impression of the issue is like we are headed to (1) no matter what and they are trying to say that if we keep digging up and burning coal and venting or burning natural gas then we are in danger of reaching (2). But the headline says (3) and the deniers say (0).
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- MrBodangles 3y ago
  “This is fine” https://climatecasino.net/2023/06/wtf-is-happening-an-overview/ https://climatecasino.net/2023/06/wtf-is-happening-an-overvi... This sure doesn’t look like a “rapid” reduction either https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-... We’ve added 25% of ALL our Co2 emissions since 2010, and if current emissions remained flat we would add another 25% in ~15 years. But sure, let’s focus on 1 variable and live in denial.
- mitthrowaway2 3y ago
  > the world is rapidly reducing human CO2 emissions Since when? This is news to me.
  - serf 3y ago
    news to me, too. there was a dip in 2020 apparently, but i'd hardly call that a trend -- and the reason is obvious: the world halted for a little bit.
- porb121 3y ago
  go ahead and google "co2 half-life in atmosphere" and "cumulative co2 emissions over time"
inconceivable 3y ago
right, but the purpose of the news is not to tell you the future but to make you feel anxious about it and to push forward political agendas of the people who pay for it. i just pay as little attention as possible to any of this shit beyond entertainment value.
dumpsterdiver 3y ago
[flagged]
- lucubratory 3y ago
  That just isn't true. You're talking about some science communicators and activists, not "scientists".
  - qup 3y ago
    Even if you somehow know exactly who the gp is talking about, which seems far-fetched, you're nitpicking.
    - kibwen 3y ago
      Well it's also simply false, scientists have historically been careful to provide multiple projections of future outcomes based on optimistic, pessimistic, and in-between estimates.
- tynpeddler 3y ago
  If misleading statements was the problem, then people would be a lot angrier about the blatant lies and propaganda large oil companies pushed for decades. Dishonesty is the problem, but not in the way you suggest.
- armada651 3y ago
  > In the past scientists have admitted to overstating the issue based on the justification that people would blow off their concerns if they didn't provide a certain amount of shock value. I always found our lack of understanding the scariest thing about climate change. We're launching a big experiment on the atmosphere and the climate that'll be irreversible for generations without fully understanding the effects. That by itself should already be enough to shock anyone.
  - GauntletWizard 3y ago
    Doing nothing is an experiment we don't understand. We know the earth went through hundreds of warm and cold periods in the past, and those are just the ones we're very certain of. Every action and inaction is a risk. You've got to have some faith that you have enough data and vision to react.
nocoder 3y ago
I totally agree with you. For this reason, I don't follow mainstream outlets about climate change. The most balanced source I have found so far is this substack by Hannah Ritchie. Here is one of those balanced article - https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/15c-warming-temporary https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/15c-warming-tempor...
- rocha 3y ago
  Great resource! Thanks for bringing it up.
lucubratory 3y ago
Science communication and trying to appropriately communicate risk has a lot of issues, yeah. I don't really blame them because there's been more than two decades of very obvious failure to get sufficient numbers of people sufficiently politically engaged to change enough to avoid catastrophic outcomes. In general, if you're a relatively high information person, you should probably be looking up the actual reports themselves by organisations like the IPCC. As to your 1/2/3 scenarios, 1 is basically impossible at this point unless every major country starts extremely rapid decarbonisation, like zero carbon within 15 years sort of thing. We think we are on track for option 2, and with predictable mitigations (countries successfully pull off all pledged reductions) it's still pretty much 2, just potentially less severe. By "less severe", I mean we can try to prevent at least some of that sea level rise which means there will be some cities that become coastal but don't get catastrophically flooded. But like, Miami for example, that city won't exist by the end of the century without a hypothetical and unproven seawall (people always say seawalls, sure it's a decent idea, but we don't know if it's even feasible for us to build them to the necessary standards. It's like asking every coastal city to build something more complex and safety critical than Hoover Dam). An important thing to think about is that the difference between 1 and 2 is class based. When I said 1 was impossible, I meant that it was impossible for like "most people", because we're on track for billions of people to become refugees because of climate change, likely leading to wars and significant political issues. But obviously if you're wealthy enough, you are basically insulated from those outcomes because you can just keep moving away from the coast (even if millions of other people are trying to move there at the same time) and the only real impact on you is the broader economic impacts on the country you live in, and even those are muted. So for the wealthy, it's always really been a question of "Is it going to be 1 or 3?", which is a big part of the reason why it has been so immensely hard to see significant political change to prevent anthropogenic climate change. We don't really understand the science of 3 well enough to understand what the tipping points would be to start a runaway greenhouse effect, so no one knows for certain. We need more science on it. I think a very reasonable guess is that it won't happen until our greenhouse gas heat retention is at least as high as it was during the various times in Earth's history when the polar ice caps didn't exist, which gives us significant runway to work with. Beyond that, we just don't know.
- 3y ago
SamPatt 3y ago
Our world has dramatically increased in living standards during the period of increasing global average temperatures. All of the IPCC future scenarios - including their worst case outcomes - still project a world where living standards keep increasing. To restate this: the economic and scientific consensus (as presented by the IPCC) is that our world will be better off in the future even in their worst scenarios. The claims about humans being unable to survive are not supported by science.
- kazinator 3y ago
  The claims that well-off, privileged humans will not survive are not supported by science.

by ftxbro 3y ago

wrycoder 3y ago

You forgot: 0) Since the troposphere has actually warmed only 0.5C in the last forty years, and the world is rapidly reducing human CO2 emissions (which turn out to be a smaller fraction of the total than previously thought), there is little to worry about, and we should direct our efforts at resolving more important issues.

rcme 3y ago
0.5C in 40 years sounds like a lot.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ftxbro 3y ago
I'm not an expert but my impression of the issue is like we are headed to (1) no matter what and they are trying to say that if we keep digging up and burning coal and venting or burning natural gas then we are in danger of reaching (2). But the headline says (3) and the deniers say (0).
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
MrBodangles 3y ago
“This is fine” https://climatecasino.net/2023/06/wtf-is-happening-an-overview/ https://climatecasino.net/2023/06/wtf-is-happening-an-overvi... This sure doesn’t look like a “rapid” reduction either https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-... We’ve added 25% of ALL our Co2 emissions since 2010, and if current emissions remained flat we would add another 25% in ~15 years. But sure, let’s focus on 1 variable and live in denial.
mitthrowaway2 3y ago
> the world is rapidly reducing human CO2 emissions Since when? This is news to me.
- serf 3y ago
  news to me, too. there was a dip in 2020 apparently, but i'd hardly call that a trend -- and the reason is obvious: the world halted for a little bit.
porb121 3y ago
go ahead and google "co2 half-life in atmosphere" and "cumulative co2 emissions over time"

inconceivable 3y ago

right, but the purpose of the news is not to tell you the future but to make you feel anxious about it and to push forward political agendas of the people who pay for it. i just pay as little attention as possible to any of this shit beyond entertainment value.

dumpsterdiver 3y ago

[flagged]

lucubratory 3y ago
That just isn't true. You're talking about some science communicators and activists, not "scientists".
- qup 3y ago
  Even if you somehow know exactly who the gp is talking about, which seems far-fetched, you're nitpicking.
  - kibwen 3y ago
    Well it's also simply false, scientists have historically been careful to provide multiple projections of future outcomes based on optimistic, pessimistic, and in-between estimates.
tynpeddler 3y ago
If misleading statements was the problem, then people would be a lot angrier about the blatant lies and propaganda large oil companies pushed for decades. Dishonesty is the problem, but not in the way you suggest.
armada651 3y ago
> In the past scientists have admitted to overstating the issue based on the justification that people would blow off their concerns if they didn't provide a certain amount of shock value. I always found our lack of understanding the scariest thing about climate change. We're launching a big experiment on the atmosphere and the climate that'll be irreversible for generations without fully understanding the effects. That by itself should already be enough to shock anyone.
- GauntletWizard 3y ago
  Doing nothing is an experiment we don't understand. We know the earth went through hundreds of warm and cold periods in the past, and those are just the ones we're very certain of. Every action and inaction is a risk. You've got to have some faith that you have enough data and vision to react.

nocoder 3y ago

I totally agree with you. For this reason, I don't follow mainstream outlets about climate change. The most balanced source I have found so far is this substack by Hannah Ritchie. Here is one of those balanced article - https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/15c-warming-temporary https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/15c-warming-tempor...

rocha 3y ago
Great resource! Thanks for bringing it up.

lucubratory 3y ago

Science communication and trying to appropriately communicate risk has a lot of issues, yeah. I don't really blame them because there's been more than two decades of very obvious failure to get sufficient numbers of people sufficiently politically engaged to change enough to avoid catastrophic outcomes. In general, if you're a relatively high information person, you should probably be looking up the actual reports themselves by organisations like the IPCC. As to your 1/2/3 scenarios, 1 is basically impossible at this point unless every major country starts extremely rapid decarbonisation, like zero carbon within 15 years sort of thing. We think we are on track for option 2, and with predictable mitigations (countries successfully pull off all pledged reductions) it's still pretty much 2, just potentially less severe. By "less severe", I mean we can try to prevent at least some of that sea level rise which means there will be some cities that become coastal but don't get catastrophically flooded. But like, Miami for example, that city won't exist by the end of the century without a hypothetical and unproven seawall (people always say seawalls, sure it's a decent idea, but we don't know if it's even feasible for us to build them to the necessary standards. It's like asking every coastal city to build something more complex and safety critical than Hoover Dam). An important thing to think about is that the difference between 1 and 2 is class based. When I said 1 was impossible, I meant that it was impossible for like "most people", because we're on track for billions of people to become refugees because of climate change, likely leading to wars and significant political issues. But obviously if you're wealthy enough, you are basically insulated from those outcomes because you can just keep moving away from the coast (even if millions of other people are trying to move there at the same time) and the only real impact on you is the broader economic impacts on the country you live in, and even those are muted. So for the wealthy, it's always really been a question of "Is it going to be 1 or 3?", which is a big part of the reason why it has been so immensely hard to see significant political change to prevent anthropogenic climate change. We don't really understand the science of 3 well enough to understand what the tipping points would be to start a runaway greenhouse effect, so no one knows for certain. We need more science on it. I think a very reasonable guess is that it won't happen until our greenhouse gas heat retention is at least as high as it was during the various times in Earth's history when the polar ice caps didn't exist, which gives us significant runway to work with. Beyond that, we just don't know.

3y ago

SamPatt 3y ago

Our world has dramatically increased in living standards during the period of increasing global average temperatures. All of the IPCC future scenarios - including their worst case outcomes - still project a world where living standards keep increasing. To restate this: the economic and scientific consensus (as presented by the IPCC) is that our world will be better off in the future even in their worst scenarios. The claims about humans being unable to survive are not supported by science.

kazinator 3y ago
The claims that well-off, privileged humans will not survive are not supported by science.