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If China decided they would no longer back North Korea, the regime could be replaced in hours. Most of the time, when toppling regimes, you have to be worried

If China decided they would no longer back North Korea, the regime could be replaced in hours. Most of the time, when toppling regimes, you have to be worried about someone even worse taking over. In this case, I don't see how it could get any worse.

andrewinardeer 3y ago
History has shown that tempting fate like this often doesn't end well.
cryptoegorophy 3y ago
Any worse? Pol Pot?
netsharc 3y ago
What I imagine would happen is the North Koreans who have suddenly stopped becoming prisoners in their own land trying to enter China, and then China would have to post guards at the border, and be responsible for the mess, including violence, trying to stop them coming in. So the Chinese government probably has an interest in keeping an NK government alive, that way they can claim "He's the evil dictator oppressing his citizens, the mess over there is not our problem!". I wonder why that's my first thought, rather than the citizens wondering "Well, the government is gone, let's build a collective to self-govern." -- I guess people would rather join a structured society somewhere else rather than try to build one themselves (probably out of nothing, in NK). Not to mention yeah, even if the current asshole is gone, the next asshole is probably busy setting up shop to resume the oppression.
- kneebonian 3y ago
  An important matter to understand is that a power vaccum fills very quickly, and often a power vacuum is filled by the most sociopathic, brutual and ruthless people around because they are willing to do anything necessary to secure and retain power. Many good and normal and moral people would want to self organize and self govern and build something better from the ashes of a fallen country, the problem is that those good and honest people will be manipulated, tricked, and murdered by those who are more brutal and cunning than them.
arp242 3y ago
> I don't see how it could get any worse. The embattled regime could employ a scorched earth policy and will launch all the weapons they've got, resulting in millions of civilian deaths. That seems worse to me. It's not like Saddam Hussein or the Taliban, or even Putin's Russia. If it wasn't for that Korea could be reunited and it will probably end up fairly well, similar to how the reunification of Germany ended up well.
- Symbiote 3y ago
  The economic, industrial, agricultural, social, technological and cultural differences between north and south Korea are far, far greater than between east and west Germany. Germany still has east-west integration problems.
  - arp242 3y ago
    Almost every country has regional differences; for a variety of reasons. "Integration problems" is overstating the issue IMO.
dirtyid 3y ago
PRC has little control over NK whose the one that's been limiting cross border trade. NK would rather starve a few people in exchange for autarky / independance. NK only started openning up to agri imports from PRC / RU in Q1 this year, but that's mainly due to may/june being toughest period for NK agri production - "sprint poverty" right before harvest. All PRC can do is deal with NK like everyone else, while also encourage their missile program since they'd rather NK fling their target at Japan or US West Coast than PRC.

andrewinardeer 3y ago

History has shown that tempting fate like this often doesn't end well.

cryptoegorophy 3y ago

Any worse? Pol Pot?

netsharc 3y ago

What I imagine would happen is the North Koreans who have suddenly stopped becoming prisoners in their own land trying to enter China, and then China would have to post guards at the border, and be responsible for the mess, including violence, trying to stop them coming in. So the Chinese government probably has an interest in keeping an NK government alive, that way they can claim "He's the evil dictator oppressing his citizens, the mess over there is not our problem!". I wonder why that's my first thought, rather than the citizens wondering "Well, the government is gone, let's build a collective to self-govern." -- I guess people would rather join a structured society somewhere else rather than try to build one themselves (probably out of nothing, in NK). Not to mention yeah, even if the current asshole is gone, the next asshole is probably busy setting up shop to resume the oppression.

kneebonian 3y ago
An important matter to understand is that a power vaccum fills very quickly, and often a power vacuum is filled by the most sociopathic, brutual and ruthless people around because they are willing to do anything necessary to secure and retain power. Many good and normal and moral people would want to self organize and self govern and build something better from the ashes of a fallen country, the problem is that those good and honest people will be manipulated, tricked, and murdered by those who are more brutal and cunning than them.

arp242 3y ago

> I don't see how it could get any worse. The embattled regime could employ a scorched earth policy and will launch all the weapons they've got, resulting in millions of civilian deaths. That seems worse to me. It's not like Saddam Hussein or the Taliban, or even Putin's Russia. If it wasn't for that Korea could be reunited and it will probably end up fairly well, similar to how the reunification of Germany ended up well.

Symbiote 3y ago
The economic, industrial, agricultural, social, technological and cultural differences between north and south Korea are far, far greater than between east and west Germany. Germany still has east-west integration problems.
- arp242 3y ago
  Almost every country has regional differences; for a variety of reasons. "Integration problems" is overstating the issue IMO.

dirtyid 3y ago

PRC has little control over NK whose the one that's been limiting cross border trade. NK would rather starve a few people in exchange for autarky / independance. NK only started openning up to agri imports from PRC / RU in Q1 this year, but that's mainly due to may/june being toughest period for NK agri production - "sprint poverty" right before harvest. All PRC can do is deal with NK like everyone else, while also encourage their missile program since they'd rather NK fling their target at Japan or US West Coast than PRC.