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Google should probably just buy Reddit and run it at a loss. This may not be good for us the users, and might end up killing Reddit in the long run, but it's b

Google should probably just buy Reddit and run it at a loss. This may not be good for us the users, and might end up killing Reddit in the long run, but it's better for both Google and Reddit than the current situation.

gregw134 3y ago
They would probably love to buy Reddit but would be blocked by regulators.
addaon 3y ago
What's the difference for users between Google buying Reddit and Reddit just shutting down now? One promo cycle? Less? There's no "long run" any more for Google's touch of death, like there was for Google Groups; they've gotten quite good at speed-running value destruction.
- IvyMike 3y ago
  It feels like it's more core to Google's search business than the projects normally shut down by Google. Maybe not quite on par with YouTube, but it could be close.
  - addaon 3y ago
    It seems almost exactly as good a match to Google's search business as Google Groups was...
    - IvyMike 3y ago
      Google Groups was never at the level that Reddit currently is, at least in terms of search results.
      - randomdata 3y ago
        Deja News/early Google Groups provided great search results. Google, in usual form, has been working hard to destroy any property outside of Web Search/YouTube for a long, long time, Groups included. The internet is bigger now, so Reddit has an advantage there, but Groups could have been what Reddit became if it received some love instead.
Zetice 3y ago
Reddit's valuation is insane right now, they got in before the "correction" so it's at some absurd multiple. Anyone trying to buy Reddit would need to basically lowball the hell out of them and make the case that an IPO will only be worse (which may or may not be true).
- mr_00ff00 3y ago
  Maybe I am missing something about IPOs here, but if Reddit’s valuation is way off because it was before the correction, wouldn’t it be easy to argue your low ball offer is the real value? Even if they IPO, wouldn’t the stock immediately crash if it’s overvalued?
  - OkayPhysicist 3y ago
    > Even if they IPO, wouldn’t the stock immediately crash if it’s overvalued? Yes, this is effectively guaranteed at this point. The hope of the investors is presumably that they will be able to sell fast and early.
    - addandsubtract 3y ago
      To whom though? Not even WSB will be touching those shares.
- Quarrel 3y ago
  is this correct? It doesn't sound right. It last raised money at $10B in 2021, but Fidelity, who led that round have since cut that valuation on their own books back to $6B. I would not be surprised if that is a conservative number. The market has moved and reddit hasn't been going in the right direction. While that's still a lot of money, it is unprofitable, so a trade sale would make some sense. The real issue is that it comes with a lot of reputational baggage that a lot of public companies would not want.
  - Zetice 3y ago
    I still think $6B falls into "insane", but that's my unqualified opinion, so it may not be correct. That said, I also don't think they're willing to accept the idea that even $6B might be high, so I don't think anyone would be successful with a meaningfully lower offer.
lastofthemojito 3y ago
I had the same thought but with OpenAI being the buyer. I think Gruber was right that a lot of the motivation for the recent Reddit API changes are OpenAI (and other AI startups) using Reddit data and becoming ultra-valuable: https://daringfireball.net/linked/2023/06/09/reddit-ipo https://daringfireball.net/linked/2023/06/09/reddit-ipo That data was helpful, but if Reddit is blacked-out, or people move to more walled-off forums it makes future iterations of ChatGPT and the like more difficult to train on recent developments. Why not have OpenAI run Reddit as a way to get lots of moderated data into its models?

gregw134 3y ago

They would probably love to buy Reddit but would be blocked by regulators.

addaon 3y ago

What's the difference for users between Google buying Reddit and Reddit just shutting down now? One promo cycle? Less? There's no "long run" any more for Google's touch of death, like there was for Google Groups; they've gotten quite good at speed-running value destruction.

IvyMike 3y ago
It feels like it's more core to Google's search business than the projects normally shut down by Google. Maybe not quite on par with YouTube, but it could be close.
- addaon 3y ago
  It seems almost exactly as good a match to Google's search business as Google Groups was...
  - IvyMike 3y ago
    Google Groups was never at the level that Reddit currently is, at least in terms of search results.
    - randomdata 3y ago
      Deja News/early Google Groups provided great search results. Google, in usual form, has been working hard to destroy any property outside of Web Search/YouTube for a long, long time, Groups included. The internet is bigger now, so Reddit has an advantage there, but Groups could have been what Reddit became if it received some love instead.

Zetice 3y ago

Reddit's valuation is insane right now, they got in before the "correction" so it's at some absurd multiple. Anyone trying to buy Reddit would need to basically lowball the hell out of them and make the case that an IPO will only be worse (which may or may not be true).

mr_00ff00 3y ago
Maybe I am missing something about IPOs here, but if Reddit’s valuation is way off because it was before the correction, wouldn’t it be easy to argue your low ball offer is the real value? Even if they IPO, wouldn’t the stock immediately crash if it’s overvalued?
- OkayPhysicist 3y ago
  > Even if they IPO, wouldn’t the stock immediately crash if it’s overvalued? Yes, this is effectively guaranteed at this point. The hope of the investors is presumably that they will be able to sell fast and early.
  - addandsubtract 3y ago
    To whom though? Not even WSB will be touching those shares.
Quarrel 3y ago
is this correct? It doesn't sound right. It last raised money at $10B in 2021, but Fidelity, who led that round have since cut that valuation on their own books back to $6B. I would not be surprised if that is a conservative number. The market has moved and reddit hasn't been going in the right direction. While that's still a lot of money, it is unprofitable, so a trade sale would make some sense. The real issue is that it comes with a lot of reputational baggage that a lot of public companies would not want.
- Zetice 3y ago
  I still think $6B falls into "insane", but that's my unqualified opinion, so it may not be correct. That said, I also don't think they're willing to accept the idea that even $6B might be high, so I don't think anyone would be successful with a meaningfully lower offer.

lastofthemojito 3y ago

I had the same thought but with OpenAI being the buyer. I think Gruber was right that a lot of the motivation for the recent Reddit API changes are OpenAI (and other AI startups) using Reddit data and becoming ultra-valuable: https://daringfireball.net/linked/2023/06/09/reddit-ipo https://daringfireball.net/linked/2023/06/09/reddit-ipo That data was helpful, but if Reddit is blacked-out, or people move to more walled-off forums it makes future iterations of ChatGPT and the like more difficult to train on recent developments. Why not have OpenAI run Reddit as a way to get lots of moderated data into its models?