Federation is a technology. As we have been reminded a billion times, users don't care about technology. So it really matters what people will do with the techn

Federation is a technology. As we have been reminded a billion times, users don't care about technology. So it really matters what people will do with the technology. The second thing to realize is that federation is a superset of centralization (it includes it as an edge case). People are used to centralization thats why the main mastodon instance is much larger than everything else. But with in a federated architecture there is not intrinsic obstance to developing more diverse patterns. So just conceptually thinking federation will "win". But how exactly is not clear. Efforts in this space are still grossly underfunded, in some cases overly ideological, distracted by web3 and always too influenced by the walled gardens. My feeling is that the most interesting cases will develop around federated wordpress and reddit-alternatives. These will be driven by creators and publishers in specific domains that want something less oppressive and value-destroying of their work. The average user/consumer is indeed hopeless. They are just shoved around and abused like sheep and they take it because there is no obvious / easy alternative or any warning from trusted entities.