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SETI is not how we'll find alien spacefaring civilizations. Within 1000 years, barring some apocalypse, an incredibly conservative prediction is that we will b
by jmyeet 3y ago
SETI is not how we'll find alien spacefaring civilizations.
Within 1000 years, barring some apocalypse, an incredibly conservative prediction is that we will be able to build permanent space orbitals. We already have sufficiently strong and readily available materials (ie stainless steel) to build O'Neil Cylinders at 2-4 miles in diameter and 10-20 miles in length that could house as many as a million people. These can be powered with solar collectors.
Build enough of these (ie millions) and you have a Dyson Swarm. With our Sun that can give our civilization upwards of 10^26 Watts of power to use (compared to our current estimated 10^11 Watts). This is also known as a Kardashev-2 (or K2) civilization.
There are a ton of advantages to this. While it may not be the route that every civilization goes, given it is relatively low tech and has massive advantages in living area and energy availability, it seems like this would happen at least some of the time.
These things would stand out from a huge distance because the only way to dissipate heat for a space orbital is to radiate it away into space. That has a wavelength determined entirely by temperature, which for any reasonable termperature range is infrared.
So you'd detect a Dyson Swarm from a huge distance away by its IR signature.
A galaxy of these (a so-called K3 civilization) would be visible from millions of light years away. A single star would be detectable now from a smaller distance but still a far bigger distance than any form of radio communication as you'd find via SETI.
The fact that we haven't seen any evidence of this thus far in our galaxy leads many (including me) to think the most likely scenario is we are the only potential spacefaring civilizatin in our galaxy.
The JWST is actually a way better tool for finding spacefaring life than anything SETI has done or proposes.
- exitb 3y agoWhat would be the motivation to build those cylinders? Traditionally people ventured into new places in hope of getting return of the effort and cost of the journey. Here it seems like you need to invest a lot, just to survive in emptiness.
- jmyeet 3y agoThe amount of energy you would have access to is almost unimaginable. We can only speculate what you'd do with that but two leading ideas are: 1. It may well be the only feasible method of interstellar travel. Accelerating a spacecraft is a whole bunch of fuel you don't have to carry; and 2. Computing power. So what would motivate people? Living room. One estimate I've seen is the current population of Earth on a full Dyson Swarm would give each person the equivalent living space of the continent of Africa. Of course you'd probably have a ton more people. It's likely you'd have a quadrillion people (>10^15) with each person having significantly more room than they do on Earth.
- rodiger 3y agoWhat is a "full" Dyson Swarm?
- varjag 3y agoJust curious, while stainless? There are better steels and it's not like it'll rust in space much.
- jmyeet 3y agoIt doesn't have to be that specifically but it's a good example of something we can produce in mass quantities now that's sufficient. It's not particularly high tech either. Also, the components are relatively common, except maybe Chromium but I'm not sure you need that much of that.