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Roll an N-sided die representing all possible locations for possible human/bat human/animal interactions. What percentage of those facets are city centers near

Roll an N-sided die representing all possible locations for possible human/bat human/animal interactions. What percentage of those facets are city centers near level 4 bio labs that research these types of viruses?

wk_end 3y ago
FWIW my understanding is that the labs were only BSL-2.
- lockhouse 3y ago
  > Prior to and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, coronavirus research at the WIV has been conducted in BSL-2 and BSL-3 laboratories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology
  - throwawaymaths 3y ago
    Even if they had done it in the BSL-4 parts, the french partners in the facility actually left it after they saw how poorly the bsl-4 was implemented, only one French researcher stayed.
- FormerBandmate 3y ago
  That is probably what caused the leak
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    If there was a leak.
    - oneshtein 3y ago
      If there was a leak from this particular lab.
- baja_blast 3y ago
  The WIV has BSL-4, BSL-3 and BSL-2 labs. But the research involving insertion of human specific furin cleavage sites into coronaviruses sampled in the wild was done in BSL2 which just means a thin medical mask and gloves. https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/coronavirus-research-grant-darpa/ https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/coronavirus-research-gra...
  - zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
    Wow. The past 3 years I thought they had a lot more PPE than that. Not sure why anyone would be surprised about a leak when that's all they wore.
    - anon291 3y ago
      Realistically, many people's bayesian priors are severely skewed against the lab leak hypothesis because it is associated with Donald Trump, and even intelligent people find it difficult to separate the message from the messenger.
      - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
        The fact that one of the authors of this is Shellenberger makes me assume the opposite is true. He's clearly a grifter. Can grifters sometimes be correct? Yes. On a topic that happens to be culture war catnip? The odds reduce greatly.
        zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
        I never heard of him. If the facts are: 1. The lab was doing gain of function experiments on coronaviruses 2. They wore limited PPE while working with these viruses 3. The first reported cases were near the lab then I think there's a high likelihood the virus came from the lab. I don't know why this would be controversial.
  - seattle_spring 3y ago
    It's not at all just a "thin mask and gloves." Just because Joe Rogan said this nonsense doesn't make it the truth. Here are the actual BSL2 requirements: https://uwm.edu/ibc/bsl2_requirements/ https://uwm.edu/ibc/bsl2_requirements/
object-a 3y ago
COVID is only BSL-3. China has over 100 of those, so the odds of a city center being near a lab is much higher. If COVID had an incubation period of a 1-2 weeks, it's also possible for the outbreak to occur in a city center that is not a likely location for human/bat/animal interactions, so the percentage will increase further.

wk_end 3y ago

FWIW my understanding is that the labs were only BSL-2.

lockhouse 3y ago
> Prior to and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, coronavirus research at the WIV has been conducted in BSL-2 and BSL-3 laboratories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology
- throwawaymaths 3y ago
  Even if they had done it in the BSL-4 parts, the french partners in the facility actually left it after they saw how poorly the bsl-4 was implemented, only one French researcher stayed.
FormerBandmate 3y ago
That is probably what caused the leak
- jacquesm 3y ago
  If there was a leak.
  - oneshtein 3y ago
    If there was a leak from this particular lab.
baja_blast 3y ago
The WIV has BSL-4, BSL-3 and BSL-2 labs. But the research involving insertion of human specific furin cleavage sites into coronaviruses sampled in the wild was done in BSL2 which just means a thin medical mask and gloves. https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/coronavirus-research-grant-darpa/ https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/coronavirus-research-gra...
- zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
  Wow. The past 3 years I thought they had a lot more PPE than that. Not sure why anyone would be surprised about a leak when that's all they wore.
  - anon291 3y ago
    Realistically, many people's bayesian priors are severely skewed against the lab leak hypothesis because it is associated with Donald Trump, and even intelligent people find it difficult to separate the message from the messenger.
    - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
      The fact that one of the authors of this is Shellenberger makes me assume the opposite is true. He's clearly a grifter. Can grifters sometimes be correct? Yes. On a topic that happens to be culture war catnip? The odds reduce greatly.
      - zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
        I never heard of him. If the facts are: 1. The lab was doing gain of function experiments on coronaviruses 2. They wore limited PPE while working with these viruses 3. The first reported cases were near the lab then I think there's a high likelihood the virus came from the lab. I don't know why this would be controversial.
- seattle_spring 3y ago
  It's not at all just a "thin mask and gloves." Just because Joe Rogan said this nonsense doesn't make it the truth. Here are the actual BSL2 requirements: https://uwm.edu/ibc/bsl2_requirements/ https://uwm.edu/ibc/bsl2_requirements/

object-a 3y ago

COVID is only BSL-3. China has over 100 of those, so the odds of a city center being near a lab is much higher. If COVID had an incubation period of a 1-2 weeks, it's also possible for the outbreak to occur in a city center that is not a likely location for human/bat/animal interactions, so the percentage will increase further.