10 ms·

>You won't have to wait long for confirmation. Confirmation that they were sick. Not confirmation of what they were sick with.

Reason077 3y ago
Given the location, the timing, the symptoms, the severity of the illness (it's unusual for 'flu to put healthy young adults in hospital) I think we can be pretty confident in our guess.
- wavefunction 3y ago
  My Aunt was killed by the flu. She had a pre-existing unknown heart-condition and despite her healthy lifestyle the flu weakened her heart enough that she needed a heart-transplant in her early 20s. She died at age 27. I tell this story whenever it is possible, to educate people about what the flu is capable of doing, whenever someone says the flu is "no big deal." Statistically, perhaps not. Unless you're the statistic that is.
  - NotYourLawyer 3y ago
    Not really relevant here though.
    - jjulius 3y ago
      They are replying directly to a tangential comment that someone else made. It might not be relevant to this overall thread, but it's relevant to this particular comment chain.
      - peteradio 3y ago
        Did any of the 3 researchers in question have something that would make them more likely to get seriously ill?
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        jjulius 3y ago
        Doesn't really matter in the context of this tangential chain. Not sure why you're asking me as I haven't even discussed that.
  - dangwhy 3y ago
    Is there a way to know who might be more susceptible to weakening of heart. Or is it just random bad luck with no known reason?
    - Enginerrrd 3y ago
      Mostly the latter as far I know.
    - nayaketo 3y ago
      Diabetics and even those who have pre-diabetes or insulin resistance.
  - CommitSyn 3y ago
    Having had a number of bad colds before I actually got a bad flu, I always thought my colds were the flu. Not a huge deal. When it was confirmed to be the flu when I talked to her later, the mobile doctor said that many people think the same because they tupically don't go to the doctor for confirmation, if the doctor even chooses to test. A real (non-covid) flu had me feeling like I was on death's door for a week, and much of that time was spent wishing it would take me.
    - kayodelycaon 3y ago
      I got H1N1. The only reason I didn’t end up in a hospital was because I forced myself to stay hydrated and somewhat lucid when I wasn’t able to sleep. It was really bad.
      - pezezin 3y ago
        I got a type-A flu this year in early January, and holy shit was it painful, I hadn't been that sick in 25 years. Some co-workers and relatives also got it (in opposite sides of the Earth!) and reported the same, this year the flu was really strong. In comparison, I had corona last week and it was a walk in the park (I am also quad-vaccinated, that might have helped).
        NoobSaibot135 3y ago
        I also had a very bad flu in early Jan2020. I'm typically very strong but my body was sapped of energy for 5 days and was different than any other sickness I've experienced.
        InitialLastName 3y ago
        > In comparison, I had corona last week and it was a walk in the park (I am also quad-vaccinated, that might have helped). I can attest that somewhere between vaccines, potential acquired immunity and variants having reduced strength, my pair of confirmed Covid experiences (March 2020, July 2022) went from "the sickest I've ever felt, with symptoms recurring for months and persistent-to-present reduced smell capability" to "a mild cold".
  - kosh2 3y ago
    It happens but it is rare. Given the COVID outbreak, it is definitely circumstancial evidence.
- freeopinion 3y ago
  Except, of course, we don't know who they were, let alone whether they were otherwise healthy or whether they were young adults. Whether somebody is confident in your guesses is up to them I guess.
  - Reason077 3y ago
    According to US government sources, they were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. Ben Hu was the researcher who lead “gain-of-function” research on SARS-like coronaviruses at WIV.
    - Accujack 3y ago
      [flagged]
- hindsightbias 3y ago
  > unusual Except that’s not true. Chinese culture is different. "There is no culture of staying at home for minor symptoms," he said. "When people feel sick they all go to hospitals, which may easily crash the healthcare system." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63944861 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63944861
- gcanyon 3y ago
  The non-lab-leak coincidence required: 1. They made a mistake in the lab, exposing themselves to a virus (not covid-19) 2. That virus was non-human-transmissible 3. The exposure happened 1-several weeks before the actual start of covid-19 at the market That's not impossible, especially if the lab was sloppy and (1) happened fairly regularly. Given the early concentration of cases around the market, and the detection of covid-19 on market materials, the lab-leak coincidence seems to be: 1. They made a mistake in the lab, exposing themselves to covid-19 2. They nearly-immediately went to the market, and spent significant time there to get the place loaded up with the virus 3. They didn't go much of anywhere else 4. They didn't interact much with others at the lab That's not impossible either, but I don't see that lab-leak scenario appears much more likely than the non-lab-leak scenario.
  - MrOwnPut 3y ago
    Could you remind us what the "non-lab-leak scenario" is again? To be clear, is your "likeliness" determined on whether we can find a creature that is more similar to covid than RaTG13 (we haven't) or something else?
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      The non lab leak scenario is just what it historically has been for ~70% of all viruses that we can trace (and probably the remainder as well, but we have no evidence): zoonotic jump.
      - Reason077 3y ago
        The lab-leak scenario presumes zoonotic jump, too. Just rather than from something in the wild, it's from humanized (ACE2-transgenic) mice, which WIV was known to be using to study SARS-like Coronaviruses.
        jacquesm 3y ago
        SARS-like CoronaViruses != COVID19. All cows are animals. Not all animals are cows.
- jlmorton 3y ago
  Importantly, Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults. In the vast majority of adults, the symptoms are mild and nonspecific. So the idea that all of these researchers would have contracted Covid and present with symptoms specific/indicative of Covid is absurd. The chances of that must be infinitesimally small. If they had the typical, flu- and cold-like symptoms that most people experience, why would anyone ever even notice? It's extremely common to have illnesses with these symptoms in an office environment, to the point it would be strange if they didn't.
  - Reason077 3y ago
    > "Importantly, Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults. In the vast majority of adults, the symptoms are mild and nonspecific." I've had Covid three times (March '20, December '20, August '22) and as a healthy middle-aged adult, I'm not sure I'd agree. The first two times were pretty wretched: I was sick enough that I could barely eat or get out of bed for a week or so, and it was many weeks before I felt completely recovered. The third time (after getting vaccinated) was definitely milder and I recovered much more quickly, but was still pretty ill for a couple of days. But notably, the symptoms for me were quite different from a typical 'flu. One thing that was very distinctive/specific for me was the wild changes in taste perception: I couldn't even eat some foods that I normally like due to them tasting so bad. I struggled to brush my teeth because I couldn't taste the mint flavour in toothpaste, only bitter chemicals! Of course, it's fair to say that it doesn't affect everyone equally: some of my friends and family had similar experiences to me while others only had fairly mild symptoms.
  - logifail 3y ago
    > Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults Correct, but I don't recall this being the narrative the media were following in 2020, despite stuff like this: "After nearly 45,000 Covid deaths in England and Wales, we can see that people of different ages have been exposed to dramatically differing risks. Fatalities among school-children have been remarkably low. Taking women aged 30–34 as an example, around 1 in 70,000 died from Covid over the 9 peak weeks of the epidemic. Since over 80% of these had pre-existing medical conditions, we estimate that a healthy women in this age-group had less than a 1 in 350,000 risk of dying from Covid, around 1/4 of the normal risk of an accidental death over this period. Healthy children and young adults have been exposed to an extremely small risk during the peak of the epidemic, which would normally be deemed an acceptable part of life. Risks can be far higher for the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions." https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49 https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-ris... "Data on deaths from covid-19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” age-related risk of death from all other causes that we all face each year, says statistician David Spiegelhalter in The BMJ today. His findings are based on analysis of death certificate data for England and Wales over a 16 week (112 day) period between 7 March and 26 June 2020." https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/covid-deaths-closely-match-normal-age-related-risk-pattern-says-expert/ https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/covid-deaths-closely-ma...
mensetmanusman 3y ago
Roll an N-sided die representing all possible locations for possible human/bat human/animal interactions. What percentage of those facets are city centers near level 4 bio labs that research these types of viruses?
- wk_end 3y ago
  FWIW my understanding is that the labs were only BSL-2.
  - lockhouse 3y ago
    > Prior to and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, coronavirus research at the WIV has been conducted in BSL-2 and BSL-3 laboratories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology
    - throwawaymaths 3y ago
      Even if they had done it in the BSL-4 parts, the french partners in the facility actually left it after they saw how poorly the bsl-4 was implemented, only one French researcher stayed.
  - FormerBandmate 3y ago
    That is probably what caused the leak
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      If there was a leak.
      - oneshtein 3y ago
        If there was a leak from this particular lab.
  - baja_blast 3y ago
ekianjo 3y ago
Wow, that is an interesting take. Probably they were sick after eating bad texmex. Sounds like the most probable explanation.
saalweachter 3y ago
The characteristic of the early pandemic was "ground glass" lung X-rays. If they have that, it's pretty clear cut. If they don't ... meh.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

Reason077 3y ago

Given the location, the timing, the symptoms, the severity of the illness (it's unusual for 'flu to put healthy young adults in hospital) I think we can be pretty confident in our guess.

wavefunction 3y ago
My Aunt was killed by the flu. She had a pre-existing unknown heart-condition and despite her healthy lifestyle the flu weakened her heart enough that she needed a heart-transplant in her early 20s. She died at age 27. I tell this story whenever it is possible, to educate people about what the flu is capable of doing, whenever someone says the flu is "no big deal." Statistically, perhaps not. Unless you're the statistic that is.
- NotYourLawyer 3y ago
  Not really relevant here though.
  - jjulius 3y ago
    They are replying directly to a tangential comment that someone else made. It might not be relevant to this overall thread, but it's relevant to this particular comment chain.
    - peteradio 3y ago
      Did any of the 3 researchers in question have something that would make them more likely to get seriously ill?
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - jjulius 3y ago
        Doesn't really matter in the context of this tangential chain. Not sure why you're asking me as I haven't even discussed that.
- dangwhy 3y ago
  Is there a way to know who might be more susceptible to weakening of heart. Or is it just random bad luck with no known reason?
  - Enginerrrd 3y ago
    Mostly the latter as far I know.
  - nayaketo 3y ago
    Diabetics and even those who have pre-diabetes or insulin resistance.
- CommitSyn 3y ago
  Having had a number of bad colds before I actually got a bad flu, I always thought my colds were the flu. Not a huge deal. When it was confirmed to be the flu when I talked to her later, the mobile doctor said that many people think the same because they tupically don't go to the doctor for confirmation, if the doctor even chooses to test. A real (non-covid) flu had me feeling like I was on death's door for a week, and much of that time was spent wishing it would take me.
  - kayodelycaon 3y ago
    I got H1N1. The only reason I didn’t end up in a hospital was because I forced myself to stay hydrated and somewhat lucid when I wasn’t able to sleep. It was really bad.
    - pezezin 3y ago
      I got a type-A flu this year in early January, and holy shit was it painful, I hadn't been that sick in 25 years. Some co-workers and relatives also got it (in opposite sides of the Earth!) and reported the same, this year the flu was really strong. In comparison, I had corona last week and it was a walk in the park (I am also quad-vaccinated, that might have helped).
      - NoobSaibot135 3y ago
        I also had a very bad flu in early Jan2020. I'm typically very strong but my body was sapped of energy for 5 days and was different than any other sickness I've experienced.
      - InitialLastName 3y ago
        > In comparison, I had corona last week and it was a walk in the park (I am also quad-vaccinated, that might have helped). I can attest that somewhere between vaccines, potential acquired immunity and variants having reduced strength, my pair of confirmed Covid experiences (March 2020, July 2022) went from "the sickest I've ever felt, with symptoms recurring for months and persistent-to-present reduced smell capability" to "a mild cold".
- kosh2 3y ago
  It happens but it is rare. Given the COVID outbreak, it is definitely circumstancial evidence.
freeopinion 3y ago
Except, of course, we don't know who they were, let alone whether they were otherwise healthy or whether they were young adults. Whether somebody is confident in your guesses is up to them I guess.
- Reason077 3y ago
  According to US government sources, they were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. Ben Hu was the researcher who lead “gain-of-function” research on SARS-like coronaviruses at WIV.
  - Accujack 3y ago
    [flagged]
hindsightbias 3y ago
> unusual Except that’s not true. Chinese culture is different. "There is no culture of staying at home for minor symptoms," he said. "When people feel sick they all go to hospitals, which may easily crash the healthcare system." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63944861 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63944861
gcanyon 3y ago
The non-lab-leak coincidence required: 1. They made a mistake in the lab, exposing themselves to a virus (not covid-19) 2. That virus was non-human-transmissible 3. The exposure happened 1-several weeks before the actual start of covid-19 at the market That's not impossible, especially if the lab was sloppy and (1) happened fairly regularly. Given the early concentration of cases around the market, and the detection of covid-19 on market materials, the lab-leak coincidence seems to be: 1. They made a mistake in the lab, exposing themselves to covid-19 2. They nearly-immediately went to the market, and spent significant time there to get the place loaded up with the virus 3. They didn't go much of anywhere else 4. They didn't interact much with others at the lab That's not impossible either, but I don't see that lab-leak scenario appears much more likely than the non-lab-leak scenario.
- MrOwnPut 3y ago
  Could you remind us what the "non-lab-leak scenario" is again? To be clear, is your "likeliness" determined on whether we can find a creature that is more similar to covid than RaTG13 (we haven't) or something else?
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    The non lab leak scenario is just what it historically has been for ~70% of all viruses that we can trace (and probably the remainder as well, but we have no evidence): zoonotic jump.
    - Reason077 3y ago
      The lab-leak scenario presumes zoonotic jump, too. Just rather than from something in the wild, it's from humanized (ACE2-transgenic) mice, which WIV was known to be using to study SARS-like Coronaviruses.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        SARS-like CoronaViruses != COVID19. All cows are animals. Not all animals are cows.
jlmorton 3y ago
Importantly, Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults. In the vast majority of adults, the symptoms are mild and nonspecific. So the idea that all of these researchers would have contracted Covid and present with symptoms specific/indicative of Covid is absurd. The chances of that must be infinitesimally small. If they had the typical, flu- and cold-like symptoms that most people experience, why would anyone ever even notice? It's extremely common to have illnesses with these symptoms in an office environment, to the point it would be strange if they didn't.
- Reason077 3y ago
  > "Importantly, Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults. In the vast majority of adults, the symptoms are mild and nonspecific." I've had Covid three times (March '20, December '20, August '22) and as a healthy middle-aged adult, I'm not sure I'd agree. The first two times were pretty wretched: I was sick enough that I could barely eat or get out of bed for a week or so, and it was many weeks before I felt completely recovered. The third time (after getting vaccinated) was definitely milder and I recovered much more quickly, but was still pretty ill for a couple of days. But notably, the symptoms for me were quite different from a typical 'flu. One thing that was very distinctive/specific for me was the wild changes in taste perception: I couldn't even eat some foods that I normally like due to them tasting so bad. I struggled to brush my teeth because I couldn't taste the mint flavour in toothpaste, only bitter chemicals! Of course, it's fair to say that it doesn't affect everyone equally: some of my friends and family had similar experiences to me while others only had fairly mild symptoms.
- logifail 3y ago
  > Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults Correct, but I don't recall this being the narrative the media were following in 2020, despite stuff like this: "After nearly 45,000 Covid deaths in England and Wales, we can see that people of different ages have been exposed to dramatically differing risks. Fatalities among school-children have been remarkably low. Taking women aged 30–34 as an example, around 1 in 70,000 died from Covid over the 9 peak weeks of the epidemic. Since over 80% of these had pre-existing medical conditions, we estimate that a healthy women in this age-group had less than a 1 in 350,000 risk of dying from Covid, around 1/4 of the normal risk of an accidental death over this period. Healthy children and young adults have been exposed to an extremely small risk during the peak of the epidemic, which would normally be deemed an acceptable part of life. Risks can be far higher for the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions." https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49 https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-ris... "Data on deaths from covid-19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” age-related risk of death from all other causes that we all face each year, says statistician David Spiegelhalter in The BMJ today. His findings are based on analysis of death certificate data for England and Wales over a 16 week (112 day) period between 7 March and 26 June 2020." https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/covid-deaths-closely-match-normal-age-related-risk-pattern-says-expert/ https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/covid-deaths-closely-ma...

mensetmanusman 3y ago

Roll an N-sided die representing all possible locations for possible human/bat human/animal interactions. What percentage of those facets are city centers near level 4 bio labs that research these types of viruses?

wk_end 3y ago
FWIW my understanding is that the labs were only BSL-2.
- lockhouse 3y ago
  > Prior to and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, coronavirus research at the WIV has been conducted in BSL-2 and BSL-3 laboratories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology
  - throwawaymaths 3y ago
    Even if they had done it in the BSL-4 parts, the french partners in the facility actually left it after they saw how poorly the bsl-4 was implemented, only one French researcher stayed.
- FormerBandmate 3y ago
  That is probably what caused the leak
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    If there was a leak.
    - oneshtein 3y ago
      If there was a leak from this particular lab.
- baja_blast 3y ago

ekianjo 3y ago

Wow, that is an interesting take. Probably they were sick after eating bad texmex. Sounds like the most probable explanation.

saalweachter 3y ago

The characteristic of the early pandemic was "ground glass" lung X-rays. If they have that, it's pretty clear cut. If they don't ... meh.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]