3 ms·
It’s actually the other way around: it’s surprising software investing works so well compared to biotech. While biotech companies carry a lot of all-or-nothing
by civilitty 3y ago
It’s actually the other way around: it’s surprising software investing works so well compared to biotech.
While biotech companies carry a lot of all-or-nothing R&D risk, their “product market fit” is all but guaranteed. Their addressable market size is well known based on patient numbers and how much they can charge nationalized healthcare agencies and insurance companies based on quality of life improvements is well understood. Once they have premarketing approval, they’re all but guaranteed an exit to one of the pharmaceutical giants. The most promising ones get acquired in phase II before efficacy is even 100% demonstrated.
Look no further than IPOs: on HN we lament all the unprofitable public tech companies but the average biotech IPOs pre-revenue! Before it’s even legal for them to sell a product! That’s increasingly been the case since the 80s due to the exhaustion of small molecules and other low hanging fruit.
In practice, scientific due diligence is harder to fake than aspirational user growth numbers which are far easier to game (case in point: Reddits ongoing bullshit). The FDA isn't going to let anyone put a dozen people at risk of death in phase I trials without a level of due diligence that puts all VCs to shame.
- jes5199 3y agoI have a friend who plays the stock market by reading papers published by publicly traded biotech companies and shorting the ones that seem to be fabricating evidence. This works well enough that he doesn't need a job.
- jasfi 3y agoThat's a really interesting approach. The trick would be knowing the indicators of fabricated data. Or perhaps just knowing when the data isn't good enough to pass the next clinical trial.
- jes5199 3y agoyeah, he says it's obvious but I've read some of the same papers and I just don't have the background to be confident
- Zacharias030 3y agoHow does he afford a short position for such a long time until the market caught up to him?
- hhmc 3y agoPerhaps he’s buying deep out of the money puts instead of actually shorting
- flushit 3y agoIs your friend Nathan Anderson? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Anderson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Anderson
- mock-possum 3y agoWow that’s truly fascinating. I’d love to hear your friend tell the story of how he got into it and how he makes it work, if he ever finds himself in an autobiographical mood.
- flushit 3y agoPart of the trick of having an edge over the rest of the market is to not tell anybody, at least not widely. That's why all those "I tell you about my secret to making 5 grand a day if you click the link below, for free" youtube ads are obviously all scams.