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Still waiting for the day when all of the truck drivers are put out of work and revolt as promised 5 years ago… McKinsey et al put out these BS reports every y

Still waiting for the day when all of the truck drivers are put out of work and revolt as promised 5 years ago… McKinsey et al put out these BS reports every year just regurgitating the current hype with zero value add (except for lazy journalists who want an easy story to copy paste).

dv_dt 3y ago
The possible function of this report, as with the truck drivers, was to provide justification to companies to reduce the wages of the workers in the report. It provides a way to point the finger at a looming "threat" that they'll be replaced, so don't demand increases in wages. This is keeping with the value that McKinsey provides to companies.
Nasrudith 3y ago
You know what they say about the first 90% taking up 90% of the development time and the last 10% taking up 90% of the development time. That is likely what we are seeing with current AI efforts. They get amazingly close yet aren't good enough to be relied upon.
- comte7092 3y ago
  Yes. My point isn’t really to comment on the specific developments in AI itself, but to assert that McKinsey has no special insight on the topic.
- hotpotamus 3y ago
  I'm guessing that you didn't mean to end up with 180% of development time, but that does seem about right when it comes to the software development projects that I've been part of. I also think you're correct that despite the impressive recent advances in AI, the remaining effort may still be enormous.
  - stoorafa 3y ago
    The 180% is purposeful (supposed to be humorous)! See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule Edit: though I guess, in a sense, nobody means to put him 180% of planned effort
ElfinTrousers 3y ago
You know, we could save a lot on consultants if we had LLMs write the BS reports.
codebreake 3y ago
I am still waiting for cashiers to go out of work let alone truck drivers.

dv_dt 3y ago

The possible function of this report, as with the truck drivers, was to provide justification to companies to reduce the wages of the workers in the report. It provides a way to point the finger at a looming "threat" that they'll be replaced, so don't demand increases in wages. This is keeping with the value that McKinsey provides to companies.

Nasrudith 3y ago

You know what they say about the first 90% taking up 90% of the development time and the last 10% taking up 90% of the development time. That is likely what we are seeing with current AI efforts. They get amazingly close yet aren't good enough to be relied upon.

comte7092 3y ago
Yes. My point isn’t really to comment on the specific developments in AI itself, but to assert that McKinsey has no special insight on the topic.
hotpotamus 3y ago
I'm guessing that you didn't mean to end up with 180% of development time, but that does seem about right when it comes to the software development projects that I've been part of. I also think you're correct that despite the impressive recent advances in AI, the remaining effort may still be enormous.
- stoorafa 3y ago
  The 180% is purposeful (supposed to be humorous)! See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule Edit: though I guess, in a sense, nobody means to put him 180% of planned effort

ElfinTrousers 3y ago

You know, we could save a lot on consultants if we had LLMs write the BS reports.

codebreake 3y ago

I am still waiting for cashiers to go out of work let alone truck drivers.