I think this is a good outlook, but I disagree on a few points: 1) The US could easily lower its debt load significantly, probably without over-impacting GDP.

I think this is a good outlook, but I disagree on a few points: 1) The US could easily lower its debt load significantly, probably without over-impacting GDP. It's just that doing so would be unpopular with certain groups. [1] is a great high-level summary of where the budget goes. Does defense spending really need to be that high? No. Should we really be contributing to runaway college tuition inflation by issuing federal student loans? I don't think so. Could we not massively reduce healthcare costs by revamping the US medical system into something sensible? Etc. 2) If you think high-inflation times are coming, it's actually advantageous to load up on long-term debt and assets in the local currency. For example, if you think we're destined for high inflation and interest rates, locking in a fat mortgage early on is a great thing to do since your interest payment load will shrink relative to your income when inflation kicks in. 3) It's important to think of this scenario in game theory terms instead of singly-player terms. As the article points out, most of the developed countries are all in the same boat now so it's hard to predict how it will play out. It's a bit of an "If everyone looks bad, no one looks bad" situation. The question is whose economy will shit the bed first and how will the other economies on the verge of the same respond? [1] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58888 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58888