6 ms·

> Turkey's situation was discussed in the article, I highly recommend reading it. Oh yep sorry I should have noted that as well - I just thought NPR's (slight

by trog 3y ago

> Turkey's situation was discussed in the article, I highly recommend reading it. Oh yep sorry I should have noted that as well - I just thought NPR's (slightly) deep(er) dive was also interesting & worth a read as a bit more of a case study where someone was VERY CONVINCED that low interest rates were the way out of inflation, and, uh, so far the evidence is not compelling that they were correct.

smashem 3y ago
Low interest environments exist because liquidity is growing in the financial system. As that liquidity escapes into the consumer system, which it always does, it causes inflation.
- issore 3y ago
  Right because once the public has real economic power the rich do not so they juice their prices, and meddle in other ways to deflate the buying power; aka inflate prices. $200k in the 80s would be $600k buying power now. But it’s barely middle class. Our society is entirely a wealth preservation scheme for people who cannot prove they did the work, they just have political documents of power.
- dilyevsky 3y ago
  Then how would you explain ultra low interest rate for 10+ years without associated inflation spike? It was only until double/triple whammy of supply chain disruption/ government handing out cash/ opptunistic price gouging that inflation really took hold
  - mr_toad 3y ago
    Because the economy was growing as fast as the money supply.
  - MrFoxFriday 3y ago
    low interest rates are not always the result of loose monetary policy; given that the low rates didn't result in inflation, they likely reflected lower real growth expectations or other demand side factors.
  - MikePlacid 3y ago
    Supply chain disruption and opportunistic price gouging are actually SIGNS of inflation, not causes of it. In a socialist country I grew up in the opportunistic price gouging was illegal, so supply chain was ALWAYS disrupted… So, in your list the only true cause of inflation remains.
    - dilyevsky 3y ago
      Supply chain disruption came long before any inflation showed as a result of covid lockdowns
      - MikePlacid 3y ago
        Our government starting giving away money long before Covid lockdowns. What is inflation? It’s prices going up. Or quality of service going down while priced the same. What is “supply chain disruption”, now? It is: you should pay more for the same delivery service, or if you refuse - your delivery will be delayed. “It’s not inflation, it’s just supply chain disruption” - was a political slogan then. No need to repeat it now: inflation is officially here already.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
  - dageshi 3y ago
    It caused asset inflation for 10 years. Housing, the stock market, crypto. Supply of goods and services could mostly keep up with any increased demand so you didn't see inflation so obviously there.
    - jml78 3y ago
      The issue I don’t see talked about is the removal of the reserve requirements for banks during Covid. They did that for liquidity reasons. However that allows bank A to loan 100% of their money to bank B and 100% to bank C. This is extremely problematic. And now with bank failures they are too scared to put it back in place. Just this concept alone creates huge inflation.
      - rocqua 3y ago
        Banks still have a required capital ratio. Covid slackened that a little bit, but banks very much still have reserve requirements.
        razius 3y ago
        [dead]
    - throwaway2037 3y ago
      It is interesting that you include "stock market" in your list. Can you pick a period where the stock market went up (or down) for an extended period that was not "asset inflation (or deflation)"? To be clear, yes, financing rates will always impact financial assets (stocks, bonds, traded commodities) in the short term, but not over a ten year period. You need real earnings growth in the underlying stocks to see sustained stock market growth. Crypto is gambling to me, so let's ignore that for my post. Housing is mostly about debt financing (the same is true for commercial real estate). It is always true that financing rates have a large impact on valuations. People mostly buy homes on the monthly payment (cars too). If rates rise, they monthly payments rise. Most people will elect to buy a cheaper home, or wait for prices to fall.
guhcampos 3y ago
Low Interest Rates being ineffective against Inflation does not imply High Interest Rates are effective against inflation.
- MikePlacid 3y ago
  Can I ask a question that really interests me: why do y’all care?
  - hgomersall 3y ago
    Because they read some stuff about economics and really really want to believe it.
  - rocqua 3y ago
    So we can have an informed opinion based on which to vote, and discuss with others to get them to vote more informedly (and in line with what we want).
    - MikePlacid 3y ago
      Our vote is irrelevant once a one-Party system is established.
- Gareth321 3y ago
  I don't agree. The majority of the OECD practises contemporary monetary policy, using central bank interest rates to control inflation. All of those countries have inflation well below Turkey. Then we have Turkey, rejecting this policy, and experiencing extremely high inflation. Economics doesn't allow us to conduct controlled experiments. We have to work with the messy data that we have. When the vast majority of some of the smartest economists in the world who currently live and who have lived, all agree on principle of supply and demand, I find it compelling. When money is removed from circulation, demand drops. This almost always results in a reduction in prices. Rejecting the law of supply and demand is really out there as a fringe argument.

by trog 3y ago

smashem 3y ago

Low interest environments exist because liquidity is growing in the financial system. As that liquidity escapes into the consumer system, which it always does, it causes inflation.

issore 3y ago
Right because once the public has real economic power the rich do not so they juice their prices, and meddle in other ways to deflate the buying power; aka inflate prices. $200k in the 80s would be $600k buying power now. But it’s barely middle class. Our society is entirely a wealth preservation scheme for people who cannot prove they did the work, they just have political documents of power.
dilyevsky 3y ago
Then how would you explain ultra low interest rate for 10+ years without associated inflation spike? It was only until double/triple whammy of supply chain disruption/ government handing out cash/ opptunistic price gouging that inflation really took hold
- mr_toad 3y ago
  Because the economy was growing as fast as the money supply.
- MrFoxFriday 3y ago
  low interest rates are not always the result of loose monetary policy; given that the low rates didn't result in inflation, they likely reflected lower real growth expectations or other demand side factors.
- MikePlacid 3y ago
  Supply chain disruption and opportunistic price gouging are actually SIGNS of inflation, not causes of it. In a socialist country I grew up in the opportunistic price gouging was illegal, so supply chain was ALWAYS disrupted… So, in your list the only true cause of inflation remains.
  - dilyevsky 3y ago
    Supply chain disruption came long before any inflation showed as a result of covid lockdowns
    - MikePlacid 3y ago
      Our government starting giving away money long before Covid lockdowns. What is inflation? It’s prices going up. Or quality of service going down while priced the same. What is “supply chain disruption”, now? It is: you should pay more for the same delivery service, or if you refuse - your delivery will be delayed. “It’s not inflation, it’s just supply chain disruption” - was a political slogan then. No need to repeat it now: inflation is officially here already.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- dageshi 3y ago
  It caused asset inflation for 10 years. Housing, the stock market, crypto. Supply of goods and services could mostly keep up with any increased demand so you didn't see inflation so obviously there.
  - jml78 3y ago
    The issue I don’t see talked about is the removal of the reserve requirements for banks during Covid. They did that for liquidity reasons. However that allows bank A to loan 100% of their money to bank B and 100% to bank C. This is extremely problematic. And now with bank failures they are too scared to put it back in place. Just this concept alone creates huge inflation.
    - rocqua 3y ago
      Banks still have a required capital ratio. Covid slackened that a little bit, but banks very much still have reserve requirements.
      - razius 3y ago
        [dead]
  - throwaway2037 3y ago
    It is interesting that you include "stock market" in your list. Can you pick a period where the stock market went up (or down) for an extended period that was not "asset inflation (or deflation)"? To be clear, yes, financing rates will always impact financial assets (stocks, bonds, traded commodities) in the short term, but not over a ten year period. You need real earnings growth in the underlying stocks to see sustained stock market growth. Crypto is gambling to me, so let's ignore that for my post. Housing is mostly about debt financing (the same is true for commercial real estate). It is always true that financing rates have a large impact on valuations. People mostly buy homes on the monthly payment (cars too). If rates rise, they monthly payments rise. Most people will elect to buy a cheaper home, or wait for prices to fall.

guhcampos 3y ago

Low Interest Rates being ineffective against Inflation does not imply High Interest Rates are effective against inflation.

MikePlacid 3y ago
Can I ask a question that really interests me: why do y’all care?
- hgomersall 3y ago
  Because they read some stuff about economics and really really want to believe it.
- rocqua 3y ago
  So we can have an informed opinion based on which to vote, and discuss with others to get them to vote more informedly (and in line with what we want).
  - MikePlacid 3y ago
    Our vote is irrelevant once a one-Party system is established.
Gareth321 3y ago
I don't agree. The majority of the OECD practises contemporary monetary policy, using central bank interest rates to control inflation. All of those countries have inflation well below Turkey. Then we have Turkey, rejecting this policy, and experiencing extremely high inflation. Economics doesn't allow us to conduct controlled experiments. We have to work with the messy data that we have. When the vast majority of some of the smartest economists in the world who currently live and who have lived, all agree on principle of supply and demand, I find it compelling. When money is removed from circulation, demand drops. This almost always results in a reduction in prices. Rejecting the law of supply and demand is really out there as a fringe argument.