"Trillions" may be a stretch barring larger recession & wider commercial real-estate collapse. But it's far from impossible! A 10% drop would be enough to del

"Trillions" may be a stretch barring larger recession & wider commercial real-estate collapse. But it's far from impossible! A 10% drop would be enough to deliver (2) "trillions" in losses to a ~$20T sector - & broad commercial-real-estate price indexes often show swings of 15% or more within a year. Since then end of 2021, major indexes already show a 15% drop with no hint of slowdown - and from 2007-2009, there was a broad ~40% drop. If there's a 2008-style crash – and it seems likely much of these losses, whether strategic no-recourse defaults, or simple inability-to-pay defaults, will pass through to banks – there could be $8T in losses.