This is probably true for office buildings. The math no longer works due to higher vacancy post-COVID and interest rates essentially doubling. No surprise there

This is probably true for office buildings. The math no longer works due to higher vacancy post-COVID and interest rates essentially doubling. No surprise there. These types of builded are financed with non recourse CMBS loans though, so it’s actually the bond buyers and not the banks that will take the brunt of it on the debt side. Obviously the equity is completely blown out as well. As for firms then circling back to buy at a discount, HA! Good luck raising money again after you’ve completely blown out your investors on the first go around, this time for a massive value add plan on a building that’s bleeding money. There will be winners and losers, a lot of buildings will be repurposed. But with $500BN of loans maturing in the next 2-3 years there is a lot of pain to come.