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IMO, he’s doing a pretty good job negotiating this as well. I know there’s a lot of words right now about broken promises and everyone not wanting to do busines

IMO, he’s doing a pretty good job negotiating this as well. I know there’s a lot of words right now about broken promises and everyone not wanting to do business with anyone else, but from the outside to this uninformed observer it looks to me like this is a high stakes showdown that’s inching toward a commercial resolution. There’s some dollar amount (representing either an exchange of value or avoided losses) where a compromise is going to make sense for everyone, and I think we’re going to see that before 6/30. My naive guess is that reddit acquires Apollo and runs that as a standalone business, but otherwise maintains the eye-wateringly high pricing on API usage.

more_corn 3y ago
That’s not what they (Reddit) are signaling.
- nocoiner 3y ago
  I know, but as it exists today, there’s real value to Apollo, the app. Doesn’t sound like it’s possible for Christian to continue to capture 100% of that value, but if I’m Reddit, I’m at least considering a low seven-digit acquisition and capturing x% of that value going forward. That said, the Apollo business is a melting ice cube at the moment. It’s quite possible that 6/30 rolls around and Christian shuts it down and all that value is lost, but it would be rational in the meantime for Christian and Reddit to find a way to share it. Just gotta figure out that split, and this whole thing turns into a win-win.
kats 3y ago
It's clear he is blackmailing them and the upset users are his leverage. After posting that "Apollo will close down on June 30th." he now says "Same as always: I love building Apollo, and if Reddit is willing to to talk I'm happy to as well." which of course was not what he always said. He was never joking about asking for 10 million dollars and is still hoping for an offer.
- ekanes 3y ago
  > Same as always: I love building Apollo, and if Reddit is willing to to talk I'm happy to as well. Got a source for that? He's made it clear that it's too late, and this can't be repaired. How can you trust someone that lied to make you look bad, and you have proof?
  - joshstrange 3y ago
    There is no source, it's a combination of a number of things Christian said in the article, a paraphrasing at best, a strawman more likely. From the article it's clear to me that Christian would come back to the table if Reddit lowered the price and/or gave app developers more time but as it stands now they haven't even replied to him in week(s). Hard to do any negotiating when the other side refuses to talk /and/ slanders/lies about you in public.
    - ekanes 3y ago
      Hey, sorry. You were right. I didn't read TFA and just jumped into the comments with outdated opinions. I'm a bit surprised that he'd go back to them, honestly. Would much rather he turn his talents and Appolo towards making the Fediverse easier to use.
    - kats 3y ago
      Yes there is a source. It's quote from his most recent comment on reddit. https://old.reddit.com/r/apolloapp/comments/147a8xb/as_the_subreddit_blackout_begins_i_wanted_to_say/jnxhov1/?context=3 https://old.reddit.com/r/apolloapp/comments/147a8xb/as_the_s...
- leokennis 3y ago
  It seems you don’t really see the power dynamics here. Reddit holds all the power: they have the API, they can shut anyone out of it, they can ask for it whatever they want, they could even re-open all closed subreddits and install new mods. All the community and Apollo has is the power to say “Reddit, if you don’t play nice, we’ll walk away”. To call that a blackmail requires some mental gymnastics.
SkyPuncher 3y ago
I've felt the opposite. He's basically tried to have an argument in public to get people to turn against Reddit. His communication is no longer negotiation. It's burn everything down with me because I've given up. I understand that Christian is in a really challenging place, but fighting with Spez in a public place is not the way to do it. It only encourages other developers to build a following that they attempt to leverage against Reddit.
- kweingar 3y ago
  > It only encourages other developers to build a following that they attempt to leverage against Reddit. Isn't that what the app developers and their users want?
- hbn 3y ago
  When he tried doing private negotiations they falsely spread accusations that Christian had been threatening them.
- lukifer 3y ago
  Negotiations aren’t based on pretty words; they’re based on leverage (BATNA). If both parties saw a win-win on API costs which can sustain 3PAs, we wouldn’t be in this situation. Once negotiation goes “hardball”, demonstrating leverage through something like a strike is part of the negotiation process. “It only encourages other developers to build a following that they attempt to leverage against Reddit.” This is a feature, not a bug. While Reddit has a substantial moat of momentum and content, the longer a strike goes on, the more users are incentivized to defect to Reddit clones (temporarily at first, but potentially the “new normal” as time goes on), and of course the apps can add support for these alternatives.
- johnnyanmac 3y ago
  >He's basically tried to have an argument in public to get people to turn against Reddit. if you weren't aware; this occurred in response to Spez basically slandering him in calls with mods, saying that Apollo was trying to blackmail Reddit. This caused dozens of mods to contact him and question his integrity. Spez shot first here. I don't think he wanted to be the ringleader of all this, but Spez's actions caused him to defend his very character, on top of all the other headaches of all these changes.
donmcronald 3y ago
> it looks to me like this is a high stakes showdown that’s inching toward a commercial resolution Not a chance. He embarrassed the CEO and most CEOs are the type of people that would rather run the company into the ground than do business with someone that upstaged them. I'm not saying Apollo is important to Reddit's business, just that you aren't accounting for the hubris of C level executives.

more_corn 3y ago

That’s not what they (Reddit) are signaling.

nocoiner 3y ago
I know, but as it exists today, there’s real value to Apollo, the app. Doesn’t sound like it’s possible for Christian to continue to capture 100% of that value, but if I’m Reddit, I’m at least considering a low seven-digit acquisition and capturing x% of that value going forward. That said, the Apollo business is a melting ice cube at the moment. It’s quite possible that 6/30 rolls around and Christian shuts it down and all that value is lost, but it would be rational in the meantime for Christian and Reddit to find a way to share it. Just gotta figure out that split, and this whole thing turns into a win-win.

kats 3y ago

It's clear he is blackmailing them and the upset users are his leverage. After posting that "Apollo will close down on June 30th." he now says "Same as always: I love building Apollo, and if Reddit is willing to to talk I'm happy to as well." which of course was not what he always said. He was never joking about asking for 10 million dollars and is still hoping for an offer.

ekanes 3y ago
> Same as always: I love building Apollo, and if Reddit is willing to to talk I'm happy to as well. Got a source for that? He's made it clear that it's too late, and this can't be repaired. How can you trust someone that lied to make you look bad, and you have proof?
- joshstrange 3y ago
  There is no source, it's a combination of a number of things Christian said in the article, a paraphrasing at best, a strawman more likely. From the article it's clear to me that Christian would come back to the table if Reddit lowered the price and/or gave app developers more time but as it stands now they haven't even replied to him in week(s). Hard to do any negotiating when the other side refuses to talk /and/ slanders/lies about you in public.
  - ekanes 3y ago
    Hey, sorry. You were right. I didn't read TFA and just jumped into the comments with outdated opinions. I'm a bit surprised that he'd go back to them, honestly. Would much rather he turn his talents and Appolo towards making the Fediverse easier to use.
  - kats 3y ago
    Yes there is a source. It's quote from his most recent comment on reddit. https://old.reddit.com/r/apolloapp/comments/147a8xb/as_the_subreddit_blackout_begins_i_wanted_to_say/jnxhov1/?context=3 https://old.reddit.com/r/apolloapp/comments/147a8xb/as_the_s...
leokennis 3y ago
It seems you don’t really see the power dynamics here. Reddit holds all the power: they have the API, they can shut anyone out of it, they can ask for it whatever they want, they could even re-open all closed subreddits and install new mods. All the community and Apollo has is the power to say “Reddit, if you don’t play nice, we’ll walk away”. To call that a blackmail requires some mental gymnastics.

SkyPuncher 3y ago

I've felt the opposite. He's basically tried to have an argument in public to get people to turn against Reddit. His communication is no longer negotiation. It's burn everything down with me because I've given up. I understand that Christian is in a really challenging place, but fighting with Spez in a public place is not the way to do it. It only encourages other developers to build a following that they attempt to leverage against Reddit.

kweingar 3y ago
> It only encourages other developers to build a following that they attempt to leverage against Reddit. Isn't that what the app developers and their users want?
hbn 3y ago
When he tried doing private negotiations they falsely spread accusations that Christian had been threatening them.
lukifer 3y ago
Negotiations aren’t based on pretty words; they’re based on leverage (BATNA). If both parties saw a win-win on API costs which can sustain 3PAs, we wouldn’t be in this situation. Once negotiation goes “hardball”, demonstrating leverage through something like a strike is part of the negotiation process. “It only encourages other developers to build a following that they attempt to leverage against Reddit.” This is a feature, not a bug. While Reddit has a substantial moat of momentum and content, the longer a strike goes on, the more users are incentivized to defect to Reddit clones (temporarily at first, but potentially the “new normal” as time goes on), and of course the apps can add support for these alternatives.
johnnyanmac 3y ago
>He's basically tried to have an argument in public to get people to turn against Reddit. if you weren't aware; this occurred in response to Spez basically slandering him in calls with mods, saying that Apollo was trying to blackmail Reddit. This caused dozens of mods to contact him and question his integrity. Spez shot first here. I don't think he wanted to be the ringleader of all this, but Spez's actions caused him to defend his very character, on top of all the other headaches of all these changes.

donmcronald 3y ago

> it looks to me like this is a high stakes showdown that’s inching toward a commercial resolution Not a chance. He embarrassed the CEO and most CEOs are the type of people that would rather run the company into the ground than do business with someone that upstaged them. I'm not saying Apollo is important to Reddit's business, just that you aren't accounting for the hubris of C level executives.