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Show HN: An attempt to assess truth quantitatively
Show HN: An attempt to assess truth quantitatively
Everyone has a rough idea of what is true based on their experience and interpretation of available evidence. However, it is hard to assess how true something really is because different people have different experiences and interpretations of the world around them, and because the evidence – or one’s interpretation of that evidence – can change at any moment.
Marqt.org attempts to solve this problem by aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to arrive at a quantitative measure of how true something is, and how it might change, in real-time. The project imagines what it would be like if you built an open-source knowledge base like Wikipedia using the format of Twitter and verified everything with Stack Overflow.
I initially announced Marqt.org several weeks ago here:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35814313 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35814313
After hearing from some of you, I have reassessed my assumptions and made some changes that I hope will improve the system and encourage you to try it out.
* Privacy and anonymity
Against conventional wisdom, I intentionally did not install analytics or tools that track user behavior from the start. I am leaning into this further, allowing you to use the full feature set anonymously. I still do encourage you to sign up for an account though, and there are now further privacy protections for those that do. You can read the details of how I do that in the comment below.
* Dialing in how true or false a statement is
Truth is not black and white, and while the purpose of Marqt.org is to navigate the nuances around partial truths (by saying something can be 68% true, for example), forcing users to take a binary position to get there doesn’t really seem fair. So now, instead of just being able to “marq it” true or false, you can dial in how true or false a marqt is. This also allows abstaining, by setting your marq to 50% (it will snap to 50 from 45-55). It also somewhat acts as an “undo,” if you marq a marqt by accident. Hotkeys still allow you to go fully true or false with “j” and “k” (or "t/f"), but now you can also hit “n” to go neutral.
* It is easier to evaluate than create
Adding a remarq puts a lot of pressure on “getting it right” and being comprehensive. It also requires work and time and is something that generative AI can do easily. So now, when you make a marqt, remarqs that argue each side are auto-generated, hopefully providing a contextual base to critically engage with. Then you can upvote or downvote the remarqs based on how remarqable or unremarqable they are, and add a remarq yourself if you want to add to the conversation.
* Leaning into the subjectivity of truth
I still don’t know what makes a good marqt yet. It took the internet some time to figure out what a good tweet is, so I’m hoping the same can happen with Marqt.org. One of the core assumptions that the marqt is built on is around the subjectivity of truth, and so I’ve front-loaded some marqts that lean more into individual experience ["I am skeptical of most things I see.", "I feel optimistic about the future of humanity.", "I am confident my job cannot be replaced by AI.",] (see below for how marqts are sorted).
Lastly, I concede that this project can be seen as a naive idea built on quixotic fantasies, but I genuinely believe that we can solve the problem of misinformation in the age of LLM hallucinations, social echo chambers and media bias, and I sincerely hope that you and Marqt.org can be a part of that eventual solution.
arthur@marqt.org
- arthurhur 3y agoIn the spirit of transparency, I wanted to share some of the high-level decisions that went into Marqt.org. I am happy to go into further detail or discuss any other aspects that I left out. Just prepare to roll your eyes at how basic I am (I know you're smarter than me, and I'm okay with that). First, the way marqts are scored. It is an average of all the marqs (0 to 100% true) users have made, but a marqt needs to meet a minimum of twelve votes (arbitrarily chosen because there are twelve jurors in a jury) before it calculates solely off user votes. Before reaching twelve, the empty slots are set to neutral (50%), so if you make a marqt and marq it 100% true, the marqt will reflect that it is "54% true with 1 vote." Second, the way marqts are sorted. They are sorted by most recent marqts made today (resets every day by UTC time), then by marqts with the most volume, favoring more recent marqts when the volume is the same. There is also a feedback marqt that is inserted in between today's marqts and the highest volume marqts in the sixth item, after the first marqt-maker. You are allowed to make up to ten marqts per day. Remarqs are sorted so the most remarqable remarq is first, followed by the most remarqable opposing remarq, so that the best argument for each side floats to the top. After remarqability, it goes by things like volume, date and whether it is an opinionated or neutral remarq. The auto-generated remarqs are from Open AI's gpt-3.5-turbo model (with default settings), and the prompt is: Give me the best reason why the following statement might be {true/false} without repeating it back to me: """{statement}""". On user privacy. The last time around, it was pointed out that I was exposing user information, which I patched immediately. I have added further protections, so that when you have an account, your marqs are not linked to your real name. But, if you add a remarq, it will display your real name (which is conversely not linked to your username). Your email address should be completely hidden and inaccessible via the API. As for anonymous accounts, I hash the public IP address through SHA-256 and bencrypt to create an anonymous user (so something like 127.0.0.1 could become @anon_YmNyeXB0X3NoYTI1NiQkMmIkMTIkSUhIVm5YRjNPeGUxQkdtd2ZIeEFyT1F3Y05DaDV4Q2hMUjI1RHBRT21LLkJOZlZPbHB6cjY=) whose first/last name is set to "Anonymous User." This is my attempt to prevent unlimited voting, although I am aware that it is not perfect (neither is email address, for that matter). The site is still MVP-ish, but it should hopefully do everything I mentioned so far. I have an ambitious product roadmap ahead, but please let me know if you have any suggestions or criticisms. All the updates I listed above were solely derived from your feedback and not preplanned, so it's highly likely that if you have an issue that is compelling enough, I will prioritize that over other features.