You can't reason how the end of humanity is going to happen based on priors, because it's never happened. Whenever it happens, (and it will definitely happen,)

You can't reason how the end of humanity is going to happen based on priors, because it's never happened. Whenever it happens, (and it will definitely happen,) it will be unprecedented. It also won't matter how many times the (doomer) boy has cried wolf and been wrong.