4 ms·

> - Historically: a geologically remarkable period of climate stability Homo sapiens survived the transition from the last ice age to today's climate.

ericmay 3y ago
I may be misremembering my ancient history here but didn’t Homo Sapiens arguably almost go extinct during the last ice age? As a related digression I think what people just keep forgetting about here isn’t like, we’ll survive. It’s we have all this nice stuff like avocados, grapes, heart surgery, and MacBook Pros, elephants, winter sports, houses, etc. and it sure would be nice to not lose that stuff for no good reason only to say “we’ll see we didn’t go extinct it wasn’t that bad”. The apparently abrupt changes the unnecessary lives lost, and what could be damaged or lost forever are what’s of concern. Less so just survivability.
- munificent 3y ago
  I agree 100% that we should do everything in our power to save as many people and as much technology as we can as we go through climate change. My point was just that claims that the entire species is going to go extinct are unlikely and, worse, counter-productive. The last thing we need is fatalism and people giving up hope.
  - ericmay 3y ago
    I agree with you - I’m sorry I didn’t gleam your original intent from the previous post. Fatalism and nihilism are mind viruses.
    - munificent 3y ago
      I'm sorry: my one sentence reply was definitely not clear. Agreed completely on fatalism and nihilism being mind viruses.
Timon3 3y ago
Could you explain how this transition is comparable to climate change in duration and amplitude? I can put a pot of water on my stove, but my hand in, warm the pot by 1°C, and I'll be fine. I can't do the same with an increase by 100°C.
- munificent 3y ago
  Not an expert, but my understanding is that the end of the last ice age led to an overall global average temperature change of +10°C. For the current climate change, we've been calling +2°C catastrophic. It is catastrophic: millions will die, species will go extinct, trillions will be spent updating infrastructure and rebuilding. But I believe that it's survivable.
  - Timon3 3y ago
    > Not an expert, but my understanding is that the end of the last ice age led to an overall global average temperature change of +10°C. Over what time period? 10°C in 10 million years is fine. In 10 years it would kill almost all life. The amount of change is inconsequential as long as the rate of change is small enough.
    - munificent 3y ago
      Over roughly 10,000 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Glacial_Period#/media/File:20191021_Temperature_from_20,000_to_10,000_years_ago_-_recovery_from_ice_age.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Glacial_Period#/media/Fil... There was a roughly 5°C change in about the last 2,000 years.
      - Timon3 3y ago
        So let's go with 5°C over 2000 years, or 1°C over 400 years. Do you see the difference between that, and our current change of 1°C over 100 years (and accelerating)?
        3y ago

ericmay 3y ago

I may be misremembering my ancient history here but didn’t Homo Sapiens arguably almost go extinct during the last ice age? As a related digression I think what people just keep forgetting about here isn’t like, we’ll survive. It’s we have all this nice stuff like avocados, grapes, heart surgery, and MacBook Pros, elephants, winter sports, houses, etc. and it sure would be nice to not lose that stuff for no good reason only to say “we’ll see we didn’t go extinct it wasn’t that bad”. The apparently abrupt changes the unnecessary lives lost, and what could be damaged or lost forever are what’s of concern. Less so just survivability.

munificent 3y ago
I agree 100% that we should do everything in our power to save as many people and as much technology as we can as we go through climate change. My point was just that claims that the entire species is going to go extinct are unlikely and, worse, counter-productive. The last thing we need is fatalism and people giving up hope.
- ericmay 3y ago
  I agree with you - I’m sorry I didn’t gleam your original intent from the previous post. Fatalism and nihilism are mind viruses.
  - munificent 3y ago
    I'm sorry: my one sentence reply was definitely not clear. Agreed completely on fatalism and nihilism being mind viruses.

Timon3 3y ago

Could you explain how this transition is comparable to climate change in duration and amplitude? I can put a pot of water on my stove, but my hand in, warm the pot by 1°C, and I'll be fine. I can't do the same with an increase by 100°C.

munificent 3y ago
Not an expert, but my understanding is that the end of the last ice age led to an overall global average temperature change of +10°C. For the current climate change, we've been calling +2°C catastrophic. It is catastrophic: millions will die, species will go extinct, trillions will be spent updating infrastructure and rebuilding. But I believe that it's survivable.
- Timon3 3y ago
  > Not an expert, but my understanding is that the end of the last ice age led to an overall global average temperature change of +10°C. Over what time period? 10°C in 10 million years is fine. In 10 years it would kill almost all life. The amount of change is inconsequential as long as the rate of change is small enough.
  - munificent 3y ago
    Over roughly 10,000 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Glacial_Period#/media/File:20191021_Temperature_from_20,000_to_10,000_years_ago_-_recovery_from_ice_age.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Glacial_Period#/media/Fil... There was a roughly 5°C change in about the last 2,000 years.
    - Timon3 3y ago
      So let's go with 5°C over 2000 years, or 1°C over 400 years. Do you see the difference between that, and our current change of 1°C over 100 years (and accelerating)?
      - 3y ago