There is no evidence SARS-COV-2 was being studied. But even if you were to accept that, the bayesian reasoning would be that you'd say that the probability it'

There is no evidence SARS-COV-2 was being studied. But even if you were to accept that, the bayesian reasoning would be that you'd say that the probability it's from Wuhan it's a leak is 100%, and 0% for any other city. You could go further and look at the viruses that have caused zoonoses in China in the past (the evidence is that hundreds of SARS-like coronaviruses have) and compare it to what was being studied. Even then, if you apply Bayes' formula, you'd have overwhelming odds towards a natural origin.