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I don’t think “I would’ve moved rates a few months earlier or later” is a super compelling counter argument. That seems close enough as to be a rounding error i

I don’t think “I would’ve moved rates a few months earlier or later” is a super compelling counter argument. That seems close enough as to be a rounding error in most scenarios, and indeed in this scenario it seems (again, so far) like it’s playing out pretty okay, all things considered. I would be very careful of ascribing a motive or singular opinion to “the market.” It’s way too easy to just project your own theses onto it. Edit: Replying to your edit in an edit of my own... I'm very curious to hear what you think is the "full blown economic disaster" that we're in right now?

prepend 3y ago
> "full blown economic disaster" Not OP, but I think to crypto people who got in at the peak, they are in the midst of a full blown economic disaster. Trillions in “value” distorted from garbage coins and exchanges crashing.
adammarples 3y ago
The Fed's actions in 2021 were not a rounding error. They poured huge amounts of fuel on an already raging fire. Not just by maintaining zero rates when inflation was out of control, but by continuing to expand their balance sheets aggressively for a long time after it was clear they should have stopped. The effects will take a long time to subside and they will have to go much, much further than they ever would have to reverse it. 2021 was just a footnote though, to the decade plus of ZIRP and QE that they've kept going since 2008. The speculative mania, the bank collapses, etc, are only happening now because nobody in this whole generation believed the Fed would ever even try and do their job, given their track record of kicking the can down the road.