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Bayesian reasoning is that your prior is a 99.999% chance that the virus is natural, as all other viruses are. The probability that a virus would crop up in Wu
by sudosysgen 3y ago
Bayesian reasoning is that your prior is a 99.999% chance that the virus is natural, as all other viruses are.
The probability that a virus would crop up in Wuhan out of all cities in China is 1/70.
Feel free apply Bayes' formula.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- goatlover 3y agoWhere's the part with the virus being collected and brought to a lab in Wuhan where gain of function research was done prior to the outbreak? Feel free to include that in your formula.
- sudosysgen 3y agoThere is no evidence SARS-COV-2 was being studied. But even if you were to accept that, the bayesian reasoning would be that you'd say that the probability it's from Wuhan it's a leak is 100%, and 0% for any other city. You could go further and look at the viruses that have caused zoonoses in China in the past (the evidence is that hundreds of SARS-like coronaviruses have) and compare it to what was being studied. Even then, if you apply Bayes' formula, you'd have overwhelming odds towards a natural origin.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]