5 ms·

Why is the gain of function thing always thrown in? This makes the case much harder to prove and seems entirely unnecessary. The family of viruses is already ve

Why is the gain of function thing always thrown in? This makes the case much harder to prove and seems entirely unnecessary. The family of viruses is already very contagious and potentially dangerous with covid19 hardly being the worst combination of the two properties.

Auracle 3y ago
Because the virus was never found in the wild, so it seems likely. Also because gain of function research is risky as hell with seemingly little benefit. The same lab had requested funds to do it on viruses that were much deadlier.
- russdill 3y ago
  Why is it the expectation that the specific strain would be noted in the wild before the start of a pandemic? Is there precedent for such a thing?
  - zosima 3y ago
    Yes, the zoonotic origins of e.g SARS and MERS were found shortly after the outbreaks. In fact COVID seems somewhat unique amongst modern maladies to not have a clear zoonotic origin.
    - russdill 3y ago
      It doesn't appear that there is a clear zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-1 and MERS either. The case is circumstantial in a similar way to SARS-CoV-2. Yes there are several animal reservoirs that carry similar viruses, but there wasn't a specific one found from which any of the 3 strains came.
      - HardlyCurious 3y ago
        Covid has a novel mutation never seen in any natural coronavirus. Further there was a grant proposal from 2018 to insert the identical mutation as found in covid. There was a plan to engineer covid 2ish years before covid existed. But I'm sure nature evolving this exact mutation coincidentally in a relatively short period after scientist documented their plans to engineer it is an equally likely outcome.
        elmolino89 3y ago
        Which mutation are you talking about?
        elmolino89 3y ago
        """However, with analogy to influenza, it was shown many years ago that the simple insertion of a polybasic site into an H3 virus does not result in a high pathogenicity phenotype7 and is likely to only function in the context of a series of other genomic changes provided by a process of natural selection.""" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00174-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...
        HardlyCurious 3y ago
        "But what was really notable about this grant proposal was that they proposed to insert cleavage sites, similar to the mystifying furin cleavage site in the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence, and to insert those into their coronavirus sequences to see if it would make them more infectious. And to many people, when that was exposed, that DARPA grant — and it only got exposed, I believe, last year — that really looked like a kind of smoking gun, which was that the research that was being proposed in the DARPA grant looked like a kind of directional arrow to a SARS-CoV-2-like virus. So that was quite significant." - https://theintercept.com/2022/05/06/deconstructed-lab-leak-covid-katherine-eban/ https://theintercept.com/2022/05/06/deconstructed-lab-leak-c... "Farzan was “bothered by the furin site and has a hard time explaining that as an event outside the lab (though, there are possible ways in nature, but highly unlikely).” On the question of whether the virus had a natural origin or came from some sort of accidental lab release, Farrar reported that Farzan was “70:30” or “60:40” in favor of an “accidental-release” explanation and that “Bob” — an apparent reference to Robert Garry — was also surprised by the presence of a furin cleavage site in this virus. Farrar quoted Bob saying: “I just can’t figure out how this gets accomplished in nature. … it’s stunning.” - https://theintercept.com/2023/01/19/covid-origin-nih-emails/ https://theintercept.com/2023/01/19/covid-origin-nih-emails/
goatlover 3y ago
Because if it so happens that gain of function research accidentally caused a global pandemic, we need to know so we can properly evaluate the risk of continuing such research. Which could also be part of the motivation for governments to cover that up. I'm not saying that's necessarily true, but I haven't seen that it's false either, and the way China and other officials and related expecrts have acted, trying to dismiss the lab leak theory as just wild conspiracy theories or politically motivated, makes me suspicious. There were serious attempts to completely shut the conversation down and prevent investigations into there being a lab leak.
- russdill 3y ago
  Your argument here is circular. There are other viruses from the same family that nearly caused a global pandemic.
  - goatlover 3y ago
    So it would be okay if it was a lab leak where gain of function was used because similar viruses almost caused a pandemic? I doubt the general public would see it that way.
    - russdill 3y ago
      The discussion isn't whether labs need to be secure, or if a lab leak is bad. The discussion is whether it not it's likely that SARS-CoV-19 was a lab leak.

Auracle 3y ago

Because the virus was never found in the wild, so it seems likely. Also because gain of function research is risky as hell with seemingly little benefit. The same lab had requested funds to do it on viruses that were much deadlier.

russdill 3y ago
Why is it the expectation that the specific strain would be noted in the wild before the start of a pandemic? Is there precedent for such a thing?
- zosima 3y ago
  Yes, the zoonotic origins of e.g SARS and MERS were found shortly after the outbreaks. In fact COVID seems somewhat unique amongst modern maladies to not have a clear zoonotic origin.
  - russdill 3y ago
    It doesn't appear that there is a clear zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-1 and MERS either. The case is circumstantial in a similar way to SARS-CoV-2. Yes there are several animal reservoirs that carry similar viruses, but there wasn't a specific one found from which any of the 3 strains came.
    - HardlyCurious 3y ago
      Covid has a novel mutation never seen in any natural coronavirus. Further there was a grant proposal from 2018 to insert the identical mutation as found in covid. There was a plan to engineer covid 2ish years before covid existed. But I'm sure nature evolving this exact mutation coincidentally in a relatively short period after scientist documented their plans to engineer it is an equally likely outcome.
      - elmolino89 3y ago
        Which mutation are you talking about?
        elmolino89 3y ago
        """However, with analogy to influenza, it was shown many years ago that the simple insertion of a polybasic site into an H3 virus does not result in a high pathogenicity phenotype7 and is likely to only function in the context of a series of other genomic changes provided by a process of natural selection.""" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00174-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...
        HardlyCurious 3y ago
        "But what was really notable about this grant proposal was that they proposed to insert cleavage sites, similar to the mystifying furin cleavage site in the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence, and to insert those into their coronavirus sequences to see if it would make them more infectious. And to many people, when that was exposed, that DARPA grant — and it only got exposed, I believe, last year — that really looked like a kind of smoking gun, which was that the research that was being proposed in the DARPA grant looked like a kind of directional arrow to a SARS-CoV-2-like virus. So that was quite significant." - https://theintercept.com/2022/05/06/deconstructed-lab-leak-covid-katherine-eban/ https://theintercept.com/2022/05/06/deconstructed-lab-leak-c... "Farzan was “bothered by the furin site and has a hard time explaining that as an event outside the lab (though, there are possible ways in nature, but highly unlikely).” On the question of whether the virus had a natural origin or came from some sort of accidental lab release, Farrar reported that Farzan was “70:30” or “60:40” in favor of an “accidental-release” explanation and that “Bob” — an apparent reference to Robert Garry — was also surprised by the presence of a furin cleavage site in this virus. Farrar quoted Bob saying: “I just can’t figure out how this gets accomplished in nature. … it’s stunning.” - https://theintercept.com/2023/01/19/covid-origin-nih-emails/ https://theintercept.com/2023/01/19/covid-origin-nih-emails/

goatlover 3y ago

Because if it so happens that gain of function research accidentally caused a global pandemic, we need to know so we can properly evaluate the risk of continuing such research. Which could also be part of the motivation for governments to cover that up. I'm not saying that's necessarily true, but I haven't seen that it's false either, and the way China and other officials and related expecrts have acted, trying to dismiss the lab leak theory as just wild conspiracy theories or politically motivated, makes me suspicious. There were serious attempts to completely shut the conversation down and prevent investigations into there being a lab leak.

russdill 3y ago
Your argument here is circular. There are other viruses from the same family that nearly caused a global pandemic.
- goatlover 3y ago
  So it would be okay if it was a lab leak where gain of function was used because similar viruses almost caused a pandemic? I doubt the general public would see it that way.
  - russdill 3y ago
    The discussion isn't whether labs need to be secure, or if a lab leak is bad. The discussion is whether it not it's likely that SARS-CoV-19 was a lab leak.