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There is a mother of all recession happening soon coupled with intense effort to dedollarize. Those factories will end up abandon without recouping their origin

There is a mother of all recession happening soon coupled with intense effort to dedollarize. Those factories will end up abandon without recouping their original investments. I have seen how this playout. In the 60s and 50s there were doable because things are cheap and Americans have the Japanese-like ingenuity and innovation. In the 90s, Internet happened and end of cold war. In the 2000s, Chinese supplement worldwide inflations with their cheap goods and students as American human resources together with Indians. In the 2020s USA lost huge chunk of Asian human resources and facing high inflations. Americans still able to hold off due to residue economic growth from Clinton-Bush era. Coming decades they will face immense headwinds with their poorer quality of non Asian immigrants, lack of resources (oil and rare earth no where at Russia level), lack of gold (Fort Knox havnt been publicly audited for more than half century), military weak (Talebans humiliated pentagon and inpending Ukrainian defeat as American sponsored proxy state), population disparity (India+China+Russia+Asean) going to make America looks like 3rd world country population or Monaco at best. Already working in HR fields, I am seeing a lot of capable Americans execs sending their kids to Asia. Some even ditched American citizenships. You can search for extreme end of examples like Severin and Dyson. But those in the "millionaires" range make up the huge bulk of these well to do American leaving western world.

proletar666 3y ago
Are you sane? Oil-wise, America's proven reserves are around 47 billion barrels and russia's 80 billion. Rare metals? See the news piece about the fairly recent Japanese discovery of a huge deposit in their territorial waters (yeah, hard to mine and extract from under seabed but still possible). Population? Russia's population is predicted to fall to ~83 million by 2100, and China has the 2nd worst birthrate in the world after South Korea, ~1.2 (the US has ~1.7, the replacement level is 2.1, but the US compensates it by attracting migrants where China can't, they want maintain their homogeneity to maintain stability, they can't have too much diversity with races, ethnicities, religions, languages and are racist towards immigrants), worse than Japan. It's actually possible (not guaranteed, but still possible) that by the end of the century the US will be more populous than China. russia is entirely irrelevant (except for nukes and raw materials), China is strong but faces too many hurdles. Seems like usual standard anti-Americanism at work. But I agree that India has chance to overtake America (demographic benefit, native exposure of English, democratic governance, huge investments into infrastructure since Modi, etc. They need to keep pumping money into infrastructure, increase spending on education to eradicate illiteracy, on R&D, ensure gender equality, resolve intercommunal tensions and violence between Muslims and Hindus (since religiosity levels tend to fall with growing economies, they'll secularize and become less religious), less red taping, and eventually they'll be on par with America or even stronger). If you're looking for the eventual new superpower, in the long term it will likely be India, not China (let alone russia).

proletar666 3y ago

Are you sane? Oil-wise, America's proven reserves are around 47 billion barrels and russia's 80 billion. Rare metals? See the news piece about the fairly recent Japanese discovery of a huge deposit in their territorial waters (yeah, hard to mine and extract from under seabed but still possible). Population? Russia's population is predicted to fall to ~83 million by 2100, and China has the 2nd worst birthrate in the world after South Korea, ~1.2 (the US has ~1.7, the replacement level is 2.1, but the US compensates it by attracting migrants where China can't, they want maintain their homogeneity to maintain stability, they can't have too much diversity with races, ethnicities, religions, languages and are racist towards immigrants), worse than Japan. It's actually possible (not guaranteed, but still possible) that by the end of the century the US will be more populous than China. russia is entirely irrelevant (except for nukes and raw materials), China is strong but faces too many hurdles. Seems like usual standard anti-Americanism at work. But I agree that India has chance to overtake America (demographic benefit, native exposure of English, democratic governance, huge investments into infrastructure since Modi, etc. They need to keep pumping money into infrastructure, increase spending on education to eradicate illiteracy, on R&D, ensure gender equality, resolve intercommunal tensions and violence between Muslims and Hindus (since religiosity levels tend to fall with growing economies, they'll secularize and become less religious), less red taping, and eventually they'll be on par with America or even stronger). If you're looking for the eventual new superpower, in the long term it will likely be India, not China (let alone russia).