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If I’m reading the last chart correctly, the real wage is up by about a dollar and a half per week given the timeframe of June 2023 vs Jan 2020. That doesn’t s

If I’m reading the last chart correctly, the real wage is up by about a dollar and a half per week given the timeframe of June 2023 vs Jan 2020. That doesn’t seem significant and if you look at the shape of the graph it’s trending down from the real wage gains during the height of Covid. December 2020 shows $398 per week while today shows $378 per week, so while it’s still above a pre Covid level of $376 I don’t think this is a good signal of recovery.

nl 3y ago
I think the argument is that during COVID everything was unusual. I think that is a fair argument. It's impossible to do a real counter-factual comparing what would have happened, but: Dec 2018: $376.20 Dec 2019: $376.87 COVID Dec 2022: $378.76 Apr 2023: $378.50 All numbers from https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... So real (inflation adjusted) wages have been roughly static compared to before COVID. That seems a reasonable point to make compared to the OP's negative sentiment, which seems not to be backed up by the numbers.
Robotbeat 3y ago
Unemployment is just as low as before AND wages are just as high as before. That sounds like full recovery to me, and we were in a boom before as well, so that's recovering to boom time levels.
- g8oz 3y ago
  It takes quite a bit of nerve to ignore skyrocketing grocery and rent costs.
  - Robotbeat 3y ago
    Again, grocery prices are back to pre-COVID levels. Nominal rent is higher, but nominal wages are also higher.
    - adamredwoods 3y ago
      I don't think that's accurate. >> Over the year, food prices rose 7.4 percent. Prices for food at home increased 6.2 percent since a year ago, with higher prices in all six grocery categories. Prices for food away from home increased 9.5 percent. https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/consumerpriceindex_west.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/consumerpricei...
    - g8oz 3y ago
      I don't know what reports you're cherry picking from but allow me to introduce you to some informative charts from the St Louis Fed. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b0 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b0 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b6 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b6 Have nominal wages really kept up with what we see in these charts? Is there a report using selective data to confirm that assertion?
      - Robotbeat 3y ago
        You are making good points by looking at broader indexes HOWEVER note that my previous wages link was adjusted for overall inflation, which includes more than just groceries and rent, so if going by an even broader index, the wages HAVE kept up with inflation, although just barely. Still impressive for wages to do so well even with a very low unemployment rate and suffering through two major shocks (COVID-19 and the food/energy price shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and the Fed’s increase in interest rates to keep inflation from spiraling out of control (due to those two spikes, plus the accumulated effects of years of monetary stimulus to recover from the Great Recession). https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... Overall I’d still say that between low unemployment and wage growth keeping up with inflation, we’re doing better than nearly any other time in history.

nl 3y ago

I think the argument is that during COVID everything was unusual. I think that is a fair argument. It's impossible to do a real counter-factual comparing what would have happened, but: Dec 2018: $376.20 Dec 2019: $376.87 COVID Dec 2022: $378.76 Apr 2023: $378.50 All numbers from https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... So real (inflation adjusted) wages have been roughly static compared to before COVID. That seems a reasonable point to make compared to the OP's negative sentiment, which seems not to be backed up by the numbers.

Robotbeat 3y ago

Unemployment is just as low as before AND wages are just as high as before. That sounds like full recovery to me, and we were in a boom before as well, so that's recovering to boom time levels.

g8oz 3y ago
It takes quite a bit of nerve to ignore skyrocketing grocery and rent costs.
- Robotbeat 3y ago
  Again, grocery prices are back to pre-COVID levels. Nominal rent is higher, but nominal wages are also higher.
  - adamredwoods 3y ago
    I don't think that's accurate. >> Over the year, food prices rose 7.4 percent. Prices for food at home increased 6.2 percent since a year ago, with higher prices in all six grocery categories. Prices for food away from home increased 9.5 percent. https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/consumerpriceindex_west.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/consumerpricei...
  - g8oz 3y ago
    I don't know what reports you're cherry picking from but allow me to introduce you to some informative charts from the St Louis Fed. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b0 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b0 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b6 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=166b6 Have nominal wages really kept up with what we see in these charts? Is there a report using selective data to confirm that assertion?
    - Robotbeat 3y ago
      You are making good points by looking at broader indexes HOWEVER note that my previous wages link was adjusted for overall inflation, which includes more than just groceries and rent, so if going by an even broader index, the wages HAVE kept up with inflation, although just barely. Still impressive for wages to do so well even with a very low unemployment rate and suffering through two major shocks (COVID-19 and the food/energy price shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and the Fed’s increase in interest rates to keep inflation from spiraling out of control (due to those two spikes, plus the accumulated effects of years of monetary stimulus to recover from the Great Recession). https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... Overall I’d still say that between low unemployment and wage growth keeping up with inflation, we’re doing better than nearly any other time in history.