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The fundamental reality of everyday people hasn't changed whatsoever. It's getting worse as people get financially drained by higher rents and higher food price

The fundamental reality of everyday people hasn't changed whatsoever. It's getting worse as people get financially drained by higher rents and higher food prices. None of these recent surges feel sustainable but who knows.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> It's getting worse as people get financially drained by higher rents and higher food prices Real wages ran flat from Q4 '21 through Q1 '23 [1]. Real disposable personal income also doing fine [2]. I don't mean to minimize the real struggles folks in our cities, or in tech, are facing. But it's not the whole picture. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96
Robotbeat 3y ago
It has made a significant change in basically every person in school above 5th grade. Which is around a tenth of the population. Additionally, gas prices are to pre-war levels (https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts), natural gas prices are back below pre-war, actually below pre-Covid levels (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm). Lumber is back to pre-covid levels (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber). Milk is back to pre-covid levels (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/milk https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/milk). Meanwhile unemployment is at the pre-COVID baseline already, historically low 3-4%, below the traditional 5% "full employment." Real wages (i.e. adjusted for all that inflation) is ALSO above pre-covid levels. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... House prices aren't increasing like they were, and the interest rate hike has made it expensive to buy a new house, but overall, it's really hard to claim people are being drained right now. Almost any other time has had worse employment, etc.
- BuyMyBitcoins 3y ago
  If I’m reading the last chart correctly, the real wage is up by about a dollar and a half per week given the timeframe of June 2023 vs Jan 2020. That doesn’t seem significant and if you look at the shape of the graph it’s trending down from the real wage gains during the height of Covid. December 2020 shows $398 per week while today shows $378 per week, so while it’s still above a pre Covid level of $376 I don’t think this is a good signal of recovery.
  - nl 3y ago
    I think the argument is that during COVID everything was unusual. I think that is a fair argument. It's impossible to do a real counter-factual comparing what would have happened, but: Dec 2018: $376.20 Dec 2019: $376.87 COVID Dec 2022: $378.76 Apr 2023: $378.50 All numbers from https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... So real (inflation adjusted) wages have been roughly static compared to before COVID. That seems a reasonable point to make compared to the OP's negative sentiment, which seems not to be backed up by the numbers.
  - Robotbeat 3y ago
    Unemployment is just as low as before AND wages are just as high as before. That sounds like full recovery to me, and we were in a boom before as well, so that's recovering to boom time levels.
    - g8oz 3y ago
      It takes quite a bit of nerve to ignore skyrocketing grocery and rent costs.
      - Robotbeat 3y ago
        Again, grocery prices are back to pre-COVID levels. Nominal rent is higher, but nominal wages are also higher.
MuffinFlavored 3y ago
> It's getting worse as people get financially drained by higher rents and higher food prices. I feel like you could make the argument "wouldn't the stock market not be going up then if this is the case?" Wouldn't people have less free money to spend and therefore corporations would receive fewer of their dollars and post less profits? Yet profits continue to grow. aka, yet another reductionist dramatic wrong outlook online that's out of line with reality yay internet! keep pushing that narrative though

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> It's getting worse as people get financially drained by higher rents and higher food prices Real wages ran flat from Q4 '21 through Q1 '23 [1]. Real disposable personal income also doing fine [2]. I don't mean to minimize the real struggles folks in our cities, or in tech, are facing. But it's not the whole picture. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96

Robotbeat 3y ago

It has made a significant change in basically every person in school above 5th grade. Which is around a tenth of the population. Additionally, gas prices are to pre-war levels (https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts), natural gas prices are back below pre-war, actually below pre-Covid levels (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm). Lumber is back to pre-covid levels (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber). Milk is back to pre-covid levels (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/milk https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/milk). Meanwhile unemployment is at the pre-COVID baseline already, historically low 3-4%, below the traditional 5% "full employment." Real wages (i.e. adjusted for all that inflation) is ALSO above pre-covid levels. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... House prices aren't increasing like they were, and the interest rate hike has made it expensive to buy a new house, but overall, it's really hard to claim people are being drained right now. Almost any other time has had worse employment, etc.

BuyMyBitcoins 3y ago
If I’m reading the last chart correctly, the real wage is up by about a dollar and a half per week given the timeframe of June 2023 vs Jan 2020. That doesn’t seem significant and if you look at the shape of the graph it’s trending down from the real wage gains during the height of Covid. December 2020 shows $398 per week while today shows $378 per week, so while it’s still above a pre Covid level of $376 I don’t think this is a good signal of recovery.
- nl 3y ago
  I think the argument is that during COVID everything was unusual. I think that is a fair argument. It's impossible to do a real counter-factual comparing what would have happened, but: Dec 2018: $376.20 Dec 2019: $376.87 COVID Dec 2022: $378.76 Apr 2023: $378.50 All numbers from https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnings https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_weekly_earnin... So real (inflation adjusted) wages have been roughly static compared to before COVID. That seems a reasonable point to make compared to the OP's negative sentiment, which seems not to be backed up by the numbers.
- Robotbeat 3y ago
  Unemployment is just as low as before AND wages are just as high as before. That sounds like full recovery to me, and we were in a boom before as well, so that's recovering to boom time levels.
  - g8oz 3y ago
    It takes quite a bit of nerve to ignore skyrocketing grocery and rent costs.
    - Robotbeat 3y ago
      Again, grocery prices are back to pre-COVID levels. Nominal rent is higher, but nominal wages are also higher.

MuffinFlavored 3y ago

> It's getting worse as people get financially drained by higher rents and higher food prices. I feel like you could make the argument "wouldn't the stock market not be going up then if this is the case?" Wouldn't people have less free money to spend and therefore corporations would receive fewer of their dollars and post less profits? Yet profits continue to grow. aka, yet another reductionist dramatic wrong outlook online that's out of line with reality yay internet! keep pushing that narrative though