3 ms·

I do think “AI” is a hype-bubble, but machine learning and specifically the sort of LLMs we’re seeing now are definitively not a hype-bubble. We don’t really n

I do think “AI” is a hype-bubble, but machine learning and specifically the sort of LLMs we’re seeing now are definitively not a hype-bubble. We don’t really need general AI, nor are we going to be able to make a true flawless general AI anytime soon. AI was always a really vague marketing term, and can be applied to anything for instant relevancy boost. Bubble territory. The LLMs we have now are extremely effective though. There’s real use case here for automating writing, and some menial tasks that human beings were unfairly burdened with, but were impossible to automate till now. That’ll stick around. (Considering that ML concepts have been around for decades, you could even say they already have!)

jstx1 3y ago
> I do think “AI” is a hype-bubble, but machine learning and specifically the sort of LLMs we’re seeing now are definitively not a hype-bubble. There isn't any kind of distinction - when people say AI in 2023 they mean ML, LLMs, image models etc.
- graypegg 3y ago
  No, I know, the distinction I’m making is that “AI on everything” marketing is going to be the hype bubble. There’s a lot of knee jerk products out there from businesses that were scared of being left behind on the wave of AI that don’t actually add much. “AI powered” could mean an in-house trained deep learning network. Or an api call to ChatGPT. Or single function someone made by tweaking sliders in Desmos calculator till the curve had the right vibe. It’s the slapping “AI” over “black box magic process” that’s going to implode. But there’s obviously massive work being done in ML that will change the world. Something actually worth the hype.
worrycue 3y ago
> The LLMs we have now are extremely effective though. There’s real use case here for automating writing, and some menial tasks that human beings were unfairly burdened with, but were impossible to automate till now. Some people take issue with that assertion. The biggest problem with LLMs is you can’t trust them and have to verify everything they output - and often writing it yourself and verifying is easier than verifying someone/something else’s work. Right now no sane corporation will even let a LLM run their helplines that they out sourced to India. Imagine a LLM hallucinating a dangerous “solution” to a customer problem resulting in loss of property, injuries, or even death. It’s a massive lawsuit waiting to happen.

jstx1 3y ago

> I do think “AI” is a hype-bubble, but machine learning and specifically the sort of LLMs we’re seeing now are definitively not a hype-bubble. There isn't any kind of distinction - when people say AI in 2023 they mean ML, LLMs, image models etc.

graypegg 3y ago
No, I know, the distinction I’m making is that “AI on everything” marketing is going to be the hype bubble. There’s a lot of knee jerk products out there from businesses that were scared of being left behind on the wave of AI that don’t actually add much. “AI powered” could mean an in-house trained deep learning network. Or an api call to ChatGPT. Or single function someone made by tweaking sliders in Desmos calculator till the curve had the right vibe. It’s the slapping “AI” over “black box magic process” that’s going to implode. But there’s obviously massive work being done in ML that will change the world. Something actually worth the hype.

worrycue 3y ago

> The LLMs we have now are extremely effective though. There’s real use case here for automating writing, and some menial tasks that human beings were unfairly burdened with, but were impossible to automate till now. Some people take issue with that assertion. The biggest problem with LLMs is you can’t trust them and have to verify everything they output - and often writing it yourself and verifying is easier than verifying someone/something else’s work. Right now no sane corporation will even let a LLM run their helplines that they out sourced to India. Imagine a LLM hallucinating a dangerous “solution” to a customer problem resulting in loss of property, injuries, or even death. It’s a massive lawsuit waiting to happen.