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Idea: Community / site for collective truth-seeking. Possibly integrated with Metaculus. One can submit new pieces of evidene which would be commentable (in t

by Xen9 3y ago

Idea: Community / site for collective truth-seeking. Possibly integrated with Metaculus. One can submit new pieces of evidene which would be commentable (in threads), votable, and programmable (to toggle / affect of other submitted evidence threads). Users can adjust the weights, vote on them (to generate a certain consensus / prediction), and even toggle of pieces of evidence manually. The site automatically gives the probabilities for different scearions. I don't have an instant vision on how "all" possible scenarios would be chosen.

ricksunny 3y ago
Neat idea, if you can keep it from getting gamed. It sounds a little like this RootClaim (I just learned about here) https://www.rootclaim.com/how-rootclaim-works https://www.rootclaim.com/how-rootclaim-works but with the users adjusting & voting on weights? This is a strawman demonstrator I'm wware of w r t origins probability surveying & calculation. https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 It's intended for any one user to evaluate ther priors and see how they stack up all together. like that your idea woukd aggregate & have comments & a voting mechanism,
- throwaway290 3y ago
  resistance to manipulation can probably come from things like more substantial evidence + personal reputation or identity confirmation. By the way, why do people weigh zoonotic spillover so high relatively to lab leak accident? There were lab leaks before even in Beijing, eg. of the original SARS when it was researched. That SARS kills faster so it didn't get to infect too many people... And that's only what's documented, considering it's China there could've been any number of other times. Intentional leak chance is low but accidental leak is so likely it's surprising this pandemic didn't happen before considering security practies that were known and raised questions before the pandemic. But everyone magically forgets about it. All because some US scientists wanted grant money too much and so laughed everyone who disagrees out of the room.

by Xen9 3y ago

ricksunny 3y ago

Neat idea, if you can keep it from getting gamed. It sounds a little like this RootClaim (I just learned about here) https://www.rootclaim.com/how-rootclaim-works https://www.rootclaim.com/how-rootclaim-works but with the users adjusting & voting on weights? This is a strawman demonstrator I'm wware of w r t origins probability surveying & calculation. https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 It's intended for any one user to evaluate ther priors and see how they stack up all together. like that your idea woukd aggregate & have comments & a voting mechanism,

throwaway290 3y ago
resistance to manipulation can probably come from things like more substantial evidence + personal reputation or identity confirmation. By the way, why do people weigh zoonotic spillover so high relatively to lab leak accident? There were lab leaks before even in Beijing, eg. of the original SARS when it was researched. That SARS kills faster so it didn't get to infect too many people... And that's only what's documented, considering it's China there could've been any number of other times. Intentional leak chance is low but accidental leak is so likely it's surprising this pandemic didn't happen before considering security practies that were known and raised questions before the pandemic. But everyone magically forgets about it. All because some US scientists wanted grant money too much and so laughed everyone who disagrees out of the room.