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Most people don’t understand how rain is actually forecast. The forecast applies to an entire area, not just your point on the map. That means it could rain s
by SkyPuncher 3y ago
Most people don’t understand how rain is actually forecast. The forecast applies to an entire area, not just your point on the map. That means it could rain somewhere in the area of the forecast and the forecast would be correct. However, your experience of the forecast could feel entirely wrong.
Even if you see a 100% chance of rain, your specific location could remain dry. Likewise, a 10% chance of rain could have just you being rained on all day.
I personally find that I need to combine a forecast with a radar to understand how the weather is actually going to pan out for a day.
Explanation of rain forecast: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop
- tiffanyh 3y agoHow I think about it is … If the weather says “10% chance of rain”, what that means is in my city - there’s a 100% chance water will fall from the sky. But only 10% of us in the city will experience it.
- SkyPuncher 3y agoThat’s a really nice, practical way to think about it. After all, most people are trying to figure out how it will impact their plans. That type of positioning really puts it into perspective.
- DeRock 3y agoThat’s not exactly what it means, it’s a blended percentage of both the chance of any rain in an area multiplied by the coverage of that rain over the affected area. So a 50% chance it will rain somewhere, and if it rains it might rain in 50% of the area, would result in a 25% overall chance of rain. See https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf
- contact9879 3y agoI understand how rain is forecast. But Foreca, Weather Channel, and AccuWeather have not had similar issues. This is an issue with Apple Weather and their WeatherKit API forecasting rain no matter the actual conditions.