I don't work in AI myself, but this is not consistent with my experience of talking to people who do. A lot of them were surprised by AlphaGo, GPT-3 and shocke

I don't work in AI myself, but this is not consistent with my experience of talking to people who do. A lot of them were surprised by AlphaGo, GPT-3 and shocked by GPT-4. The fact that some people were ridiculously optimistic at the beginning should not take away from the fact that few people saw GPT-4 coming.