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> because so many experts ... indicating that LLMs ... are on an exponential ... improvement trajectory. The experts have consistently and grossly overestimate
by sampo 3y ago
> because so many experts ... indicating that LLMs ... are on an exponential ... improvement trajectory.
The experts have consistently and grossly overestimated the progress in AI research since 1955. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_workshop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_workshop
- sebzim4500 3y agoI don't work in AI myself, but this is not consistent with my experience of talking to people who do. A lot of them were surprised by AlphaGo, GPT-3 and shocked by GPT-4. The fact that some people were ridiculously optimistic at the beginning should not take away from the fact that few people saw GPT-4 coming.