5 ms·

People will look back at this period in history and laugh/cringe/mock at people's response to ChatGPT and the out of control hype.

Traubenfuchs 3y ago
I was scared shitless for my senior code monkey job for a while. Then within a few months all the "it‘s a capable junior/mid level dev", "it multiplies my output 1000x" and "I don‘t know how to code but just published my first app written by ChatGPT in the appstore" horror stories kind of collapsed and turned out to be blown out of proportion nonsense.
- falcor84 3y ago
  We're in the "trough of disillusionment" now, but it doesn't mean it's nonsense - capabilities will keep rising.
  - post-it 3y ago
    Capabilities will keep rising, and so will demand. Wix has replaced every web developer from 1995, but there aren't any web developers left with only a 1995 skillset.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- Kiro 3y ago
  > collapsed and turned out to be blown out of proportion nonsense I don't agree with this. If anything I see more and more examples every day that makes me think my job is actually in fact threatened.
- moffkalast 3y ago
  > "it multiplies my output 1000x I mean definitely not by that much, but 3-5x easily? If you count those times where one spends hours sifting through documentation and examples on something new you're not familiar with then it could reach those numbers if it spits out something that works first time in several seconds. But not on average. It's not great for debugging existing problems given the extreme context limits, that's become apparent, but for writing new code? Absolute gamechanger.
falcor84 3y ago
Are people still laughing at the "dot com boom" of the late 90s? I'd argue that the hype was not as much exaggerated as ahead of its time. The vast majority of predictions about how the internet will change modern life have come true.
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  Are you also considering all the negatives of the boom? * Mass surveillance of populations * Social media addiction * Mass scale disinformation campaigns * Scammers at scale * Unbelievable and unparalleled wealth inequality with few tech companies having more money than most people on earth, * A highly centralized web * Child porn and abuse at scale Personally I think that yes, people are laughing at the boom and the irony of the internet, because all the promises made to overwhelmingly improve our lives seem to be met with some pretty fucked up, highly unexpected and quite serious negatives. The boom seems to be benefiting the few rather than the many.
  - falcor84 3y ago
    I am considering these, and that's the thing - we shouldn't be so dismissive of the optimistic nor the pessimistic predictions about the future of AI. They might just come true.
- worrycue 3y ago
  Have people ever laughed at the "dot com boom" of the late 90s? Not much to laugh at since it actually delivered on most* of its promises. It promised information at your finger tips. The ability to communicate with people across the globe. Even stuff like video and audio at the click of a button which had horrible quality issues at the time, no one doubt will become a thing eventually as bandwidth improved. * The only thing that more or less bombed and faded away was VR. Remember VRML? Today, the company-formerly-known-as-FaceBook is going for round 2. So far it doesn't look good. Turns out the only thing VR is good for is video games - and all those games use their own proprietary technology to achieve their aims.
  - 3y ago
belter 3y ago
A UK government adviser went on TV to say AI Models will be killing people in 2 years... - https://news.sky.com/story/ai-could-help-produce-deadly-weapons-that-kill-humans-in-two-years-time-rishi-sunaks-adviser-warns-12897366 https://news.sky.com/story/ai-could-help-produce-deadly-weap...
- ignoramous 3y ago
  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-fakhrizadeh-assassination-israel.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuc...
- jabradoodle 3y ago
  No, he did not. Take the time to read the article. He said AI could be behind advancements that could kill people, such as synthetic bio weapons. He did not claim skynet is incoming.
  - belter 3y ago
    That is exactly what he said: "We will be creating a new species..." Maybe you should watch the interview... - https://youtu.be/ADXEKum6iJ8?t=201 https://youtu.be/ADXEKum6iJ8?t=201 The UK government always seems to find these "experts" on call...It's fascinating. Reminds of the famous Tony Blair reports, prepared by the civil service, of weapons of mass destruction (distraction?) ready to be deployed in 45 min... "The 45-minute claim was false - After two years, one war and at least 16,000 deaths, the Government finally admits it" - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-45minute-claim-was-false-535224.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-45minute-...
    - jabradoodle 3y ago
      A timestamp would be appreciated, from a quick look at that video he explicitly says we don't know whether AGI is possible; not that we will have agents killing people in 2 years.
drexlspivey 3y ago
The hype about AutoGPT from the technowatermelons on twitter was unreal. Is it able to do anything remotely useful? Apparently a glorified while loop will get you 140k github stars in a matter of weeks in this environment.

Traubenfuchs 3y ago

I was scared shitless for my senior code monkey job for a while. Then within a few months all the "it‘s a capable junior/mid level dev", "it multiplies my output 1000x" and "I don‘t know how to code but just published my first app written by ChatGPT in the appstore" horror stories kind of collapsed and turned out to be blown out of proportion nonsense.

falcor84 3y ago
We're in the "trough of disillusionment" now, but it doesn't mean it's nonsense - capabilities will keep rising.
- post-it 3y ago
  Capabilities will keep rising, and so will demand. Wix has replaced every web developer from 1995, but there aren't any web developers left with only a 1995 skillset.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Kiro 3y ago
> collapsed and turned out to be blown out of proportion nonsense I don't agree with this. If anything I see more and more examples every day that makes me think my job is actually in fact threatened.
moffkalast 3y ago
> "it multiplies my output 1000x I mean definitely not by that much, but 3-5x easily? If you count those times where one spends hours sifting through documentation and examples on something new you're not familiar with then it could reach those numbers if it spits out something that works first time in several seconds. But not on average. It's not great for debugging existing problems given the extreme context limits, that's become apparent, but for writing new code? Absolute gamechanger.

falcor84 3y ago

Are people still laughing at the "dot com boom" of the late 90s? I'd argue that the hype was not as much exaggerated as ahead of its time. The vast majority of predictions about how the internet will change modern life have come true.

ChatGTP 3y ago
Are you also considering all the negatives of the boom? * Mass surveillance of populations * Social media addiction * Mass scale disinformation campaigns * Scammers at scale * Unbelievable and unparalleled wealth inequality with few tech companies having more money than most people on earth, * A highly centralized web * Child porn and abuse at scale Personally I think that yes, people are laughing at the boom and the irony of the internet, because all the promises made to overwhelmingly improve our lives seem to be met with some pretty fucked up, highly unexpected and quite serious negatives. The boom seems to be benefiting the few rather than the many.
- falcor84 3y ago
  I am considering these, and that's the thing - we shouldn't be so dismissive of the optimistic nor the pessimistic predictions about the future of AI. They might just come true.
worrycue 3y ago
Have people ever laughed at the "dot com boom" of the late 90s? Not much to laugh at since it actually delivered on most* of its promises. It promised information at your finger tips. The ability to communicate with people across the globe. Even stuff like video and audio at the click of a button which had horrible quality issues at the time, no one doubt will become a thing eventually as bandwidth improved. * The only thing that more or less bombed and faded away was VR. Remember VRML? Today, the company-formerly-known-as-FaceBook is going for round 2. So far it doesn't look good. Turns out the only thing VR is good for is video games - and all those games use their own proprietary technology to achieve their aims.
- 3y ago

belter 3y ago

A UK government adviser went on TV to say AI Models will be killing people in 2 years... - https://news.sky.com/story/ai-could-help-produce-deadly-weapons-that-kill-humans-in-two-years-time-rishi-sunaks-adviser-warns-12897366 https://news.sky.com/story/ai-could-help-produce-deadly-weap...

ignoramous 3y ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-fakhrizadeh-assassination-israel.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuc...
jabradoodle 3y ago
No, he did not. Take the time to read the article. He said AI could be behind advancements that could kill people, such as synthetic bio weapons. He did not claim skynet is incoming.
- belter 3y ago
  That is exactly what he said: "We will be creating a new species..." Maybe you should watch the interview... - https://youtu.be/ADXEKum6iJ8?t=201 https://youtu.be/ADXEKum6iJ8?t=201 The UK government always seems to find these "experts" on call...It's fascinating. Reminds of the famous Tony Blair reports, prepared by the civil service, of weapons of mass destruction (distraction?) ready to be deployed in 45 min... "The 45-minute claim was false - After two years, one war and at least 16,000 deaths, the Government finally admits it" - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-45minute-claim-was-false-535224.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-45minute-...
  - jabradoodle 3y ago
    A timestamp would be appreciated, from a quick look at that video he explicitly says we don't know whether AGI is possible; not that we will have agents killing people in 2 years.

drexlspivey 3y ago

The hype about AutoGPT from the technowatermelons on twitter was unreal. Is it able to do anything remotely useful? Apparently a glorified while loop will get you 140k github stars in a matter of weeks in this environment.