4 ms·

Nevermind I read that wrong. In reality, dunkelflaute last significantly longer than 24 hours: https://www.hydro.org/powerhouse/article/tackling-the-dunkelflau

by _hypx 3y ago

Nevermind I read that wrong. In reality, dunkelflaute last significantly longer than 24 hours: https://www.hydro.org/powerhouse/article/tackling-the-dunkelflaute-and-balancing-the-system-national-experts-discuss-how-markets-can-value-firm-and-flexible-resources-like-hydropower/ https://www.hydro.org/powerhouse/article/tackling-the-dunkel... > The chart shows that as many as 3.7% hours, which is equal to two weeks, of doldrums could occur during severe wind and solar droughts. This is fundamentally a death knell for conventional battery storage solutions. This is also what I mean by environmentalists not even having a clue. They are as delusional as the people who don't believe in climate change at all.

natmaka 3y ago
> dunkelflaute last significantly longer than 24 hours This study is local (to Minnesota). The smaller the studied zone, the higher the intermittency: nothing new here. The answer I already wrote is also pertinent here;: aggregation is key. During a Dunkelflaute neighbors can provide (also: storage, backup and curtailment). Therefore a way to considerably alleviate intermittency (even under Dunkelflaute) is to interconnect electrical zones (nations). Those interconnections are already progressing because they are justified even without any renewable sources, in order to cope with problems and to optimize. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continenta... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_super_grid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_super_grid https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S036054421831288X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03605... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z
- _hypx 3y ago
  > The result of the study, shown in Chart 3, reveals that most of Belgium’s neighboring countries faced dunkelflaute at the same time as Belgium. https://vito.be/en/news/dunkelflaute-what-do-when-there-no-wind-or-sun https://vito.be/en/news/dunkelflaute-what-do-when-there-no-w... Neighboring states are not a panacea. All nearby countries will suffer from dunkelflaute at similar times, and they are correlated to each other. Note that no one is suggesting that you cannot rely on neighbors for power. Only that this does not solve the problem of intermittency entirely. Hence an additional system of hydrogen energy storage is necessary. Something every study even admits is basically necessary or at least highly desirable.
  - natmaka 3y ago
    > Neighboring states are not a panacea > this does not solve the problem of intermittency entirely Indeed, hence the title of the referenced study report: "European cooperation could provide more stable wind power". "more stable" isn't "perfectly stable". As its contents shows 'neighbor' is to be understood as 'European-wide'. There is no panacea/magic bullet/nirvana, each complex system uses many partial solutions, and is it true for the existing electrical grid system. Rejecting a partial solution because it doesn't solve the problem is a well-known trick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy Correlations between wind regimes is indeed a key, duly analyzed. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115017013 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211... In this study the table 6 (associated to section 3.3.1) offers a re-insuring snapshot. Green hydrogen (among other ways/vectors) is also part of the solution: using electricity overproduced by renewables in order to obtain hydrogen (water electrolysis) then use it as a backup. According to some H-powered turbines aren't mature. This is just another joke: https://www.ge.com/gas-power/future-of-energy/hydrogen-fueled-gas-turbines https://www.ge.com/gas-power/future-of-energy/hydrogen-fuele...
    - _hypx 3y ago
      > Indeed, hence the title of the referenced study report: "European cooperation could provide more stable wind power". "more stable" isn't "perfectly stable". > > As its contents shows 'neighbor' is to be understood as 'European-wide'. > > There is no panacea/magic bullet/nirvana, each complex system uses many partial solutions, and is it true for the existing electrical grid system. Rejecting a partial solution because it doesn't solve the problem is a well-known trick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy Except no one has been promoting that argument at all! You’re been tilting at windmills this whole time. The point is that green hydrogen is necessary to fill the gaps between availability of wind and solar. It is not the only solution, but not having it is impossible.
      - natmaka 3y ago
        > no one has been promoting that argument You wrote (above) "Which still doesn't solve the issue of intermittency at all". As the study shows that spreading production units on the continent is a partial solution to intermittency it sounded to me as a nirvana fallacy. Yes, I also think that green hydrogen will be a major component of the solution (along with V2G), and never denied it.

by _hypx 3y ago

natmaka 3y ago

> dunkelflaute last significantly longer than 24 hours This study is local (to Minnesota). The smaller the studied zone, the higher the intermittency: nothing new here. The answer I already wrote is also pertinent here;: aggregation is key. During a Dunkelflaute neighbors can provide (also: storage, backup and curtailment). Therefore a way to considerably alleviate intermittency (even under Dunkelflaute) is to interconnect electrical zones (nations). Those interconnections are already progressing because they are justified even without any renewable sources, in order to cope with problems and to optimize. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continenta... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_super_grid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_super_grid https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S036054421831288X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03605... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z

_hypx 3y ago
> The result of the study, shown in Chart 3, reveals that most of Belgium’s neighboring countries faced dunkelflaute at the same time as Belgium. https://vito.be/en/news/dunkelflaute-what-do-when-there-no-wind-or-sun https://vito.be/en/news/dunkelflaute-what-do-when-there-no-w... Neighboring states are not a panacea. All nearby countries will suffer from dunkelflaute at similar times, and they are correlated to each other. Note that no one is suggesting that you cannot rely on neighbors for power. Only that this does not solve the problem of intermittency entirely. Hence an additional system of hydrogen energy storage is necessary. Something every study even admits is basically necessary or at least highly desirable.
- natmaka 3y ago
  > Neighboring states are not a panacea > this does not solve the problem of intermittency entirely Indeed, hence the title of the referenced study report: "European cooperation could provide more stable wind power". "more stable" isn't "perfectly stable". As its contents shows 'neighbor' is to be understood as 'European-wide'. There is no panacea/magic bullet/nirvana, each complex system uses many partial solutions, and is it true for the existing electrical grid system. Rejecting a partial solution because it doesn't solve the problem is a well-known trick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy Correlations between wind regimes is indeed a key, duly analyzed. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115017013 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211... In this study the table 6 (associated to section 3.3.1) offers a re-insuring snapshot. Green hydrogen (among other ways/vectors) is also part of the solution: using electricity overproduced by renewables in order to obtain hydrogen (water electrolysis) then use it as a backup. According to some H-powered turbines aren't mature. This is just another joke: https://www.ge.com/gas-power/future-of-energy/hydrogen-fueled-gas-turbines https://www.ge.com/gas-power/future-of-energy/hydrogen-fuele...
  - _hypx 3y ago
    > Indeed, hence the title of the referenced study report: "European cooperation could provide more stable wind power". "more stable" isn't "perfectly stable". > > As its contents shows 'neighbor' is to be understood as 'European-wide'. > > There is no panacea/magic bullet/nirvana, each complex system uses many partial solutions, and is it true for the existing electrical grid system. Rejecting a partial solution because it doesn't solve the problem is a well-known trick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy Except no one has been promoting that argument at all! You’re been tilting at windmills this whole time. The point is that green hydrogen is necessary to fill the gaps between availability of wind and solar. It is not the only solution, but not having it is impossible.
    - natmaka 3y ago
      > no one has been promoting that argument You wrote (above) "Which still doesn't solve the issue of intermittency at all". As the study shows that spreading production units on the continent is a partial solution to intermittency it sounded to me as a nirvana fallacy. Yes, I also think that green hydrogen will be a major component of the solution (along with V2G), and never denied it.