3 ms·

Very curious to hear your reasoning!

by bbor 3y ago

BSEdlMMldESB 3y ago
I wold scarcely call it 'reasoning', it's closer to 'wild guessing' I think 'the east' has working multi-language LLMs, but the west's version doesn't quite perform as well with multiple languages
imiric 3y ago
I'm mostly trolling to stir the pot and see HN's response, and you don't disappoint. :) But since we're all speculating here, if I had to place my money on who will come out on top with AI, it would be the East. And by East, I specifically mean China. While the West is scrambling to limit the pace of AI development, no such regulation exists in China. There have certainly been regulations to limit the power of Chinese companies in the past few years, but ultimately the shot caller is the CCP. An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Then there's the manufacturing side. The West does still control the most advanced chip fabrication technologies, but China is quickly ramping up development with results that rival those of TSMC/ASML[1]. If any country can be self-sufficient with chip fabrication, it's China. There's only so much harm US sanctions can do to a self-sufficient country. [1]: https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakthrough/ https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakth...
- amanaplanacanal 3y ago
  Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. > An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails.
  - ryandrake 3y ago
    I was going to say! The US is infamous for treating corporations with kid gloves and letting them basically get away with whatever they do. If there is a place in "The West" that's going to regulate AI, it's not going to be the US.
    - ldehaan 3y ago
      [dead]
  - imiric 3y ago
    > Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. I worded that wrongly, but what I meant is that the current concerns with AI and discussions to pause AI development are entirely happening in Western countries. China will regulate its companies to comply with the goals of the CCP, but they don't have the same ethical and moral concerns as the West. > Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails. They can also afford to fail fast. It's the "move fast and break things" approach to government. :)
  - 2devnull 3y ago
    “Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any” There are yes. Environmental regulations that impact hardware. Personal information, privacy regulations that impact the training data. Business regulations that impact what businesses and business owners can do with labor, financial reporting, etc… We also have a fourth estate so if people like Yudkowksi get enough traction in the media the government will be force to act. That is worse than regulation by government, it’s regulation by the whim of the media owners. These are not AI regulation per se, but they are de facto restrictions that aren’t present to the same degree in communist China.
- bbor 3y ago
  Thanks for the honesty! That is of course against hacker news guidelines, but oh well. Specifically “Eschew flamebait.” Regarding the topic at hand: that’s plausible. I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. I guess that might slow down research, but I don’t see it as that simplistic, like a blue bar ticking up in Civ; AI will need some major paradigm shifts before it gets really crazy, and I think a healthier and more sustainable field helps that rather than hindering it. Plus there’s the fact that “the west” (kinda hate these terms tbh) has ~66% of all CS research - https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-computer-science-research-within-european-countries/abstract https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-com...
  - imiric 3y ago
    At my defense, I wasn't flamebaiting as I honestly believe what I said. It's just a controversial topic, and I expected the negative response. > I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. Well, the discussions here are about pausing AI development. There's a growing public concern about its capabilities, and democratic governments must, in theory, abide to its citizens. An autocratic government can impose its will on the people, and even though China has passed AI regulation recently[1], it ultimately must serve the goals of the CCP. The Chinese government has much more power to direct its resources in ensuring it ends up on top in this race, while Western countries will be bogged down by bureaucracy, red tape, and more stringent regulation. Not to mention that the CCP doesn't share the same moral and ethical concerns. So any current lead the West has at the moment, will not remain so in a few years. But this is entirely an opinion from a layperson, and I have no expertise in the matter. Cheers for the civil discussion! [1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-measures-managing-generative-artificial-intelligence-2023-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-meas...
    - peteradio 3y ago
      The fastest train still has to stay on the tracks, I think OPs point is that the potential for devastating knock on effects from a mismanaged AI effort can cause overall slowdowns. The red tape and bureaucracy may slow things down from some theoretical maximum, but a train can't fly so as the crow flies is only a theoretical route for a train.

Very curious to hear your reasoning!

by bbor 3y ago

Very curious to hear your reasoning!

I wold scarcely call it 'reasoning', it's closer to 'wild guessing' I think 'the east' has working multi-language LLMs, but the west's version doesn't quite perform as well with multiple languages

imiric 3y ago

I'm mostly trolling to stir the pot and see HN's response, and you don't disappoint. :) But since we're all speculating here, if I had to place my money on who will come out on top with AI, it would be the East. And by East, I specifically mean China. While the West is scrambling to limit the pace of AI development, no such regulation exists in China. There have certainly been regulations to limit the power of Chinese companies in the past few years, but ultimately the shot caller is the CCP. An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Then there's the manufacturing side. The West does still control the most advanced chip fabrication technologies, but China is quickly ramping up development with results that rival those of TSMC/ASML[1]. If any country can be self-sufficient with chip fabrication, it's China. There's only so much harm US sanctions can do to a self-sufficient country. [1]: https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakthrough/ https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakth...

amanaplanacanal 3y ago
Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. > An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails.
- ryandrake 3y ago
  I was going to say! The US is infamous for treating corporations with kid gloves and letting them basically get away with whatever they do. If there is a place in "The West" that's going to regulate AI, it's not going to be the US.
  - ldehaan 3y ago
    [dead]
- imiric 3y ago
  > Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. I worded that wrongly, but what I meant is that the current concerns with AI and discussions to pause AI development are entirely happening in Western countries. China will regulate its companies to comply with the goals of the CCP, but they don't have the same ethical and moral concerns as the West. > Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails. They can also afford to fail fast. It's the "move fast and break things" approach to government. :)
- 2devnull 3y ago
  “Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any” There are yes. Environmental regulations that impact hardware. Personal information, privacy regulations that impact the training data. Business regulations that impact what businesses and business owners can do with labor, financial reporting, etc… We also have a fourth estate so if people like Yudkowksi get enough traction in the media the government will be force to act. That is worse than regulation by government, it’s regulation by the whim of the media owners. These are not AI regulation per se, but they are de facto restrictions that aren’t present to the same degree in communist China.
bbor 3y ago
Thanks for the honesty! That is of course against hacker news guidelines, but oh well. Specifically “Eschew flamebait.” Regarding the topic at hand: that’s plausible. I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. I guess that might slow down research, but I don’t see it as that simplistic, like a blue bar ticking up in Civ; AI will need some major paradigm shifts before it gets really crazy, and I think a healthier and more sustainable field helps that rather than hindering it. Plus there’s the fact that “the west” (kinda hate these terms tbh) has ~66% of all CS research - https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-computer-science-research-within-european-countries/abstract https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-com...
- imiric 3y ago
  At my defense, I wasn't flamebaiting as I honestly believe what I said. It's just a controversial topic, and I expected the negative response. > I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. Well, the discussions here are about pausing AI development. There's a growing public concern about its capabilities, and democratic governments must, in theory, abide to its citizens. An autocratic government can impose its will on the people, and even though China has passed AI regulation recently[1], it ultimately must serve the goals of the CCP. The Chinese government has much more power to direct its resources in ensuring it ends up on top in this race, while Western countries will be bogged down by bureaucracy, red tape, and more stringent regulation. Not to mention that the CCP doesn't share the same moral and ethical concerns. So any current lead the West has at the moment, will not remain so in a few years. But this is entirely an opinion from a layperson, and I have no expertise in the matter. Cheers for the civil discussion! [1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-measures-managing-generative-artificial-intelligence-2023-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-meas...
  - peteradio 3y ago
    The fastest train still has to stay on the tracks, I think OPs point is that the potential for devastating knock on effects from a mismanaged AI effort can cause overall slowdowns. The red tape and bureaucracy may slow things down from some theoretical maximum, but a train can't fly so as the crow flies is only a theoretical route for a train.