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I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days w

by wenc 3y ago

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market. Because even if cynics turn out to be right, their reasons for being right are random and we learn nothing from them. In financial market for instance it’s not enough to be right (it’s a coin toss) but to have the right reasons for being right.

henrikschroder 3y ago
> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technologies for consuming content on mobile. They got the form factor and keyboard right. It was expensive, but not 10x more expensive. The iPhone replaced a device that everyone was already willingly carrying around in their pockets, and had been carrying around for over a decade at that point. The global VR headset market moved 20 million devices last year. For most people, VR headsets are a gimmick, a novelty, they bought one, tried it, put it on a shelf. People aren't carrying one around, people aren't using it as their main computing interface, people aren't throwing away their monitors or TVs or gaming consoles. If someone has a VR headset, it's a non-essential plaything. The Apple Vision is ~10x as expensive, in a market that's 1/50th of what the mobile phone market was in 2007, and it's still not solving obvious pain points that are stopping people from getting a VR headset. What problems does it solve? What device does it replace? > When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market. "God^H^H^HApple moves in mysterious ways, it's best not to question The Lord!" Come on. Apple Vision entering the VR market is fundamentally different from the iPhone entering the mobile phone market, which is why posts like this, trying to make Apple Vision criticism equivalent to iPhone criticism, are completely wrong.
- wenc 3y ago
  You assume Apple is entering the VR market. I already think this is the wrong take. To me the market is still being discovered. There are many products whose business models are not what is apparent. We make category mistakes when we pigeonhole new products into known existing categories. Right off the bat for me the Vision Pro is a multi monitor replacement that you can travel with — that’s just the one thing that hits my gut.
  - DANmode 3y ago
    and AR is not VR. Though it does seem like this also does AR things well, and with ease.
  - henrikschroder 3y ago
    > To me the market is still being discovered. The *WHOLE POINT* of this HN post is to poo-poo Dvorak's take on the iPhone *AS IF* the introduction of Apple Vision is comparable to the iPhone's introduction. "iPhone critics were wrong then, therefore Apple vision critics are wrong now" is *NOT AN ARGUMENT*. It's emotional manipulation where you are supposed to reminisce about the glorious smartphone revolution that Apple ushered in, and apply that to this product launch. That is what is going on here. And every time I press the point on what the hell the Apple Vision thing is for, the only thing I get back is mealy-mouthed corporate bullshit like what you just wrote. "It's gonna be revolutionary, trust me, bro" No. There is zero reason to believe that these things won't end up collecting dust on a shelf somewhere, just like the majority of VR headsets are already doing.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - plutoh28 3y ago
      > The WHOLE POINT of this HN post is to poo-poo Dvorak's take on the iPhone AS IF the introduction of Apple Vision is comparable to the iPhone's introduction. Not completely. This article is a great example of how meaningless unsubstantiated analysis is. The author makes a lot of anecdotal claims similar to the ones made regarding VR (“one time gimmick, a shelf decoration”) I don’t think we’ve seen the complete potential of VR/AR technology and Im looking forward to see if Apple stepping in can normalize it.

by wenc 3y ago

henrikschroder 3y ago

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technologies for consuming content on mobile. They got the form factor and keyboard right. It was expensive, but not 10x more expensive. The iPhone replaced a device that everyone was already willingly carrying around in their pockets, and had been carrying around for over a decade at that point. The global VR headset market moved 20 million devices last year. For most people, VR headsets are a gimmick, a novelty, they bought one, tried it, put it on a shelf. People aren't carrying one around, people aren't using it as their main computing interface, people aren't throwing away their monitors or TVs or gaming consoles. If someone has a VR headset, it's a non-essential plaything. The Apple Vision is ~10x as expensive, in a market that's 1/50th of what the mobile phone market was in 2007, and it's still not solving obvious pain points that are stopping people from getting a VR headset. What problems does it solve? What device does it replace? > When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market. "God^H^H^HApple moves in mysterious ways, it's best not to question The Lord!" Come on. Apple Vision entering the VR market is fundamentally different from the iPhone entering the mobile phone market, which is why posts like this, trying to make Apple Vision criticism equivalent to iPhone criticism, are completely wrong.

wenc 3y ago
You assume Apple is entering the VR market. I already think this is the wrong take. To me the market is still being discovered. There are many products whose business models are not what is apparent. We make category mistakes when we pigeonhole new products into known existing categories. Right off the bat for me the Vision Pro is a multi monitor replacement that you can travel with — that’s just the one thing that hits my gut.
- DANmode 3y ago
  and AR is not VR. Though it does seem like this also does AR things well, and with ease.
- henrikschroder 3y ago
  > To me the market is still being discovered. The *WHOLE POINT* of this HN post is to poo-poo Dvorak's take on the iPhone *AS IF* the introduction of Apple Vision is comparable to the iPhone's introduction. "iPhone critics were wrong then, therefore Apple vision critics are wrong now" is *NOT AN ARGUMENT*. It's emotional manipulation where you are supposed to reminisce about the glorious smartphone revolution that Apple ushered in, and apply that to this product launch. That is what is going on here. And every time I press the point on what the hell the Apple Vision thing is for, the only thing I get back is mealy-mouthed corporate bullshit like what you just wrote. "It's gonna be revolutionary, trust me, bro" No. There is zero reason to believe that these things won't end up collecting dust on a shelf somewhere, just like the majority of VR headsets are already doing.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - plutoh28 3y ago
    > The WHOLE POINT of this HN post is to poo-poo Dvorak's take on the iPhone AS IF the introduction of Apple Vision is comparable to the iPhone's introduction. Not completely. This article is a great example of how meaningless unsubstantiated analysis is. The author makes a lot of anecdotal claims similar to the ones made regarding VR (“one time gimmick, a shelf decoration”) I don’t think we’ve seen the complete potential of VR/AR technology and Im looking forward to see if Apple stepping in can normalize it.