3 ms·

I watched a representation of an mining industry insider ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg ) some months

I watched a representation of an mining industry insider ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg ) some months ago who makes the point that all these projections are completely unrealistic because of mining constraints. He says/shows that you need an order of magnitude (I think) more ore of many elements and this is impossible because: 1) The Mining industry is incredible mature and there are no easy disruptive technologies on the horizon. 2) Even if there was the will to do it, new capacities take at least ten years to go live and he does not even see any relevant increased investment in the sector, never mind concrete projects.

defrost 3y ago
Mark P. Mills [1] may be a number of things but he is absolutely not by any means a "mining industry insider". He is a senior fellow for a think tank that claims as axiomatic that the popular conception of climate change as posing an existential threat to modern civilization is not supported by climate science or economics. It comes as no surprise that he repeatedly makes presentations aimed to undercut transition to green energy. Regardless of the truth of his position though he is clearly no expert on the mining industry. [1] https://manhattan.institute/person/mark-p-mills https://manhattan.institute/person/mark-p-mills
- runsWphotons 3y ago
  My friend who works at the mines says the same thing. But maybe this is just a meme in the industry.
  - defrost 3y ago
    My main point here is that Mills was described as a mining industry insider when his own Bio and presentations makes it clear he is not. Mills makes a number of statments so I'm unsure what "the same thing is" .. but as far as the two points raised in the GP comment go: 1) Rio Tinto has 'recently' improved throughput using semi autonomous Haulpaks, trains, plants [1] and 'proved' that this works to the order of some ~ 800 million tonne per annum. They also have well advanced plans for a very different type of mining operation for a USD $64 billion copper resource in the US .. should that go ahead. 2) New operations do typically take ten years to bring up to production from (say) exploration drilling to mine opening ... however that's very much the rythm of the domain, relatively steady demand and growth sees forward planners leaving new $360 million capital investments "uncommitted" as long as possible - when the last active resource tails off, a new one is bought online. There's no hard constraint that prevents them bought online faster other than fear of surplus crashing price - typically there are many potential green sites ready to be advanced through further exploration and into economic feasibily technical reports and intial prospectus raising (to meet mine plant costs). [2] [1] https://www.riotinto.com/en/about/innovation/automation https://www.riotinto.com/en/about/innovation/automation [2] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...
- Paradigma11 3y ago
  Thank you for that information.
pfdietz 3y ago
One can build storage with only common elements (see pumped thermal, pumped hydro). The world makes about 2 BILLION tonnes of steel a year. Storage made from materials like that will not cause significantly increased mining.
- natmaka 3y ago
  Electric vehicles are key, because they lead to V2G: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid
jandrese 3y ago
I think he's underestimating the ability of the industry to go "hmm, we're short on X, but we can switch to an alternate chemistry that avoid using it at a slightly lower efficiency". This is already happening in the E-V market, and fixed batteries (home or grid) are even less space/weight constrained. Also, when there is a demand the market finds a way. These guys have been doomsaying about renewables for decades now and have been consistently wrong. https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency-with-2018-update-2/ https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-proj...

defrost 3y ago

Mark P. Mills [1] may be a number of things but he is absolutely not by any means a "mining industry insider". He is a senior fellow for a think tank that claims as axiomatic that the popular conception of climate change as posing an existential threat to modern civilization is not supported by climate science or economics. It comes as no surprise that he repeatedly makes presentations aimed to undercut transition to green energy. Regardless of the truth of his position though he is clearly no expert on the mining industry. [1] https://manhattan.institute/person/mark-p-mills https://manhattan.institute/person/mark-p-mills

runsWphotons 3y ago
My friend who works at the mines says the same thing. But maybe this is just a meme in the industry.
- defrost 3y ago
  My main point here is that Mills was described as a mining industry insider when his own Bio and presentations makes it clear he is not. Mills makes a number of statments so I'm unsure what "the same thing is" .. but as far as the two points raised in the GP comment go: 1) Rio Tinto has 'recently' improved throughput using semi autonomous Haulpaks, trains, plants [1] and 'proved' that this works to the order of some ~ 800 million tonne per annum. They also have well advanced plans for a very different type of mining operation for a USD $64 billion copper resource in the US .. should that go ahead. 2) New operations do typically take ten years to bring up to production from (say) exploration drilling to mine opening ... however that's very much the rythm of the domain, relatively steady demand and growth sees forward planners leaving new $360 million capital investments "uncommitted" as long as possible - when the last active resource tails off, a new one is bought online. There's no hard constraint that prevents them bought online faster other than fear of surplus crashing price - typically there are many potential green sites ready to be advanced through further exploration and into economic feasibily technical reports and intial prospectus raising (to meet mine plant costs). [2] [1] https://www.riotinto.com/en/about/innovation/automation https://www.riotinto.com/en/about/innovation/automation [2] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...
Paradigma11 3y ago
Thank you for that information.

pfdietz 3y ago

One can build storage with only common elements (see pumped thermal, pumped hydro). The world makes about 2 BILLION tonnes of steel a year. Storage made from materials like that will not cause significantly increased mining.

natmaka 3y ago
Electric vehicles are key, because they lead to V2G: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid

jandrese 3y ago

I think he's underestimating the ability of the industry to go "hmm, we're short on X, but we can switch to an alternate chemistry that avoid using it at a slightly lower efficiency". This is already happening in the E-V market, and fixed batteries (home or grid) are even less space/weight constrained. Also, when there is a demand the market finds a way. These guys have been doomsaying about renewables for decades now and have been consistently wrong. https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency-with-2018-update-2/ https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-proj...