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> The costs of the one furthest ahead, NuScale, are already exploding and the power will be way more expensive than planned. Not sure if you've heard - there

> The costs of the one furthest ahead, NuScale, are already exploding and the power will be way more expensive than planned. Not sure if you've heard - there was some inflation that hit the US back in 2022. Are you asking for NuScale to be immune to inflation? Even regular cars became more expensive.

mikeyouse 3y ago
In mid 2021, NuScale was estimating $58/mwh.. it's now $89/mwh. I don't think you can blame 'inflation' for a +50% increase in estimated power costs over the last 18 months.
- thinkcontext 3y ago
  Its $89MWH with a $30MWH generation credit and a $1.4B subsidy (thanks Biden). This is all before construction has started, there will certainly be more cost inflation coming. https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-r...
  - evilos 3y ago
    1.4B doesn't even offset the 2B they paid to the NRC to certify their technology. This is boring old PWR reactors too. It's ancient tech. Fast construction is basically the point of SMRs so we will see if that pans out. Not that I expect them to nail it on the first try.
- credit_guy 3y ago
  > I don't think you can blame 'inflation' for a +50% increase in estimated power costs over the last 18 months. Yes you can. One of the main costs in a project like this is the financing cost. Interest rates were nearly zero, now they are at 5%. Of course, NuScale would pay more than the rate published by the Fed, so, let's say they could secure financing in early 2022 at 4% and now they can at 9%. That's a steep increase. The reason the rates went up is because the Fed is fighting inflation.
  - mikeyouse 3y ago
    Just abject nonsense. If they were relying on 0% interest rates and no inflation for the next 10 years for the project to pencil, we should shut the whole thing down today. Edit- just looked at their explanation and their discount rate only increased by 2%. We should probably shut it all down today regardless. It actually increased from $58 to $119 but the IRA gave them a $30/mwh subsidy. So a 100% miss on price in only 18 months and we’re still nearly a decade before it’s planned to be operational: https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/inline-images/UAMPS-NuScale-SMR-Target-Price-of-Power.png https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/inline-images/UAMPS-Nu...
    - credit_guy 3y ago
      > we should shut the whole thing down today. Who is "we"? You are just a random guy on the internet. The people who actually invest money have a different opinion [1]: “Despite the project’s rising costs, felt worldwide by all large energy projects due to interest rates increases and rapidly escalating inflation in commodities such as fabricated plate and structural steel, copper wire and cable, not seen for over 40 years, participants felt overwhelmingly that the CFPP remains viable and is a key energy resource for the future,” said Mason Baker, UAMPS CEO and General Manager. [1] https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/small-modular-reactor-project-being-developed-uamps-moves-forward https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/small-modular...
      - mikeyouse 3y ago
        As someone who’s done financial modeling for energy projects. If you miss by 100% before groundbreaking, management is incompetent or the engineers designing the thing are. With this track record, I’d bet $100 the $120/mwh unsubsidized rate (that’s already 100% higher than the rate published 18 months ago) is increased by another 100% before the first concrete is poured. Probably even odds that if they finish this project, they’re north of $300/mwh unsubsidized.

mikeyouse 3y ago

In mid 2021, NuScale was estimating $58/mwh.. it's now $89/mwh. I don't think you can blame 'inflation' for a +50% increase in estimated power costs over the last 18 months.

thinkcontext 3y ago
Its $89MWH with a $30MWH generation credit and a $1.4B subsidy (thanks Biden). This is all before construction has started, there will certainly be more cost inflation coming. https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-r...
- evilos 3y ago
  1.4B doesn't even offset the 2B they paid to the NRC to certify their technology. This is boring old PWR reactors too. It's ancient tech. Fast construction is basically the point of SMRs so we will see if that pans out. Not that I expect them to nail it on the first try.
credit_guy 3y ago
> I don't think you can blame 'inflation' for a +50% increase in estimated power costs over the last 18 months. Yes you can. One of the main costs in a project like this is the financing cost. Interest rates were nearly zero, now they are at 5%. Of course, NuScale would pay more than the rate published by the Fed, so, let's say they could secure financing in early 2022 at 4% and now they can at 9%. That's a steep increase. The reason the rates went up is because the Fed is fighting inflation.
- mikeyouse 3y ago
  Just abject nonsense. If they were relying on 0% interest rates and no inflation for the next 10 years for the project to pencil, we should shut the whole thing down today. Edit- just looked at their explanation and their discount rate only increased by 2%. We should probably shut it all down today regardless. It actually increased from $58 to $119 but the IRA gave them a $30/mwh subsidy. So a 100% miss on price in only 18 months and we’re still nearly a decade before it’s planned to be operational: https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/inline-images/UAMPS-NuScale-SMR-Target-Price-of-Power.png https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/inline-images/UAMPS-Nu...
  - credit_guy 3y ago
    > we should shut the whole thing down today. Who is "we"? You are just a random guy on the internet. The people who actually invest money have a different opinion [1]: “Despite the project’s rising costs, felt worldwide by all large energy projects due to interest rates increases and rapidly escalating inflation in commodities such as fabricated plate and structural steel, copper wire and cable, not seen for over 40 years, participants felt overwhelmingly that the CFPP remains viable and is a key energy resource for the future,” said Mason Baker, UAMPS CEO and General Manager. [1] https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/small-modular-reactor-project-being-developed-uamps-moves-forward https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/small-modular...
    - mikeyouse 3y ago
      As someone who’s done financial modeling for energy projects. If you miss by 100% before groundbreaking, management is incompetent or the engineers designing the thing are. With this track record, I’d bet $100 the $120/mwh unsubsidized rate (that’s already 100% higher than the rate published 18 months ago) is increased by another 100% before the first concrete is poured. Probably even odds that if they finish this project, they’re north of $300/mwh unsubsidized.